Myth465

I think REITs will play out differently this time and so will housing. They are pretty overvalued right now and rents wont rise due to excess space. With that said, I would buy houses hand over fist if I had a skilled Manager. I want to move abroad (any volunteers).

You are proving to be quite the value trader :). I am taking notes lol.

CHK has had a nice run. Too bad I was sitting on my hands when I should have just bought the Leaps. Oh well. SD has done amazingly well, while ATPG has sucked wind mostly. Time will tell. CHK - seems to have a great plan. ATPG needs a permit. SD - should be very interesting. By Ward's count they can only hold 250,000 and they have 650 or so if not more. Will be interesting to see what comes out of that. Either we buy / contract more rigs, sell, or do a JV.

Compton seems to be in a bad position. They generate cash but have to reinvest it in the business. Looks like Capex is the same as cash flow. I could be wrong, perhaps cash flow is free cash flow after investments. They would do well by purchasing their debt back at 85 cents on the dollar, though I dont think they can.

LOL

Hi all, just saw the VIC writeup on this and am thinking about it again. I still hate gas but am a sucker for cheap. Have you guys thought about the bonds. Seems like an easy way to earn 14% and if you are wrong you get the assets.

Smart man. Its not worth it inmo unless you can buy a huge chuck.

I am ganna (its a word down here) miss Buffett, he had a sense of humor and charm that cant one cannot learn inmo. I also like the humility (whether false / planned or not). Its refreshing. Thanks for these Gems Parsad. Here is one for you - “The cemeteries of the world are full of indispensable men.” Charles de Gaulle

I would say it depends ;). If you average down and the price eventually recovers then it works. If you swing big and hit a big bag of .. then..... I have done both. I would say it depends on your thesis and why its falling. Alot of times averaging down can be best described as being stubborn.

Lol, that spokesperson needs to find a better argument. I would agree with her, and press for the bill. LOL

You gave all the right answers (INMO). Sounds like you know what you are doing to me.

Welcome abroad sounds like you have a nice little portfolio. Those names are some of the most discussed and I own 4 of them. My only question is why the concentration in insurance?

Ya if I did short I would pick off the sick limping creatures at the back of the herd. You guys are going after gazelles but betting they cant fun as fast for as long. You may win but what happens if that horse is Sea-biscuit or Secretariat?

One would think so. But Joe Public Investor knows better and wants his 1% dividend.

I would think that any criticism of Buffett hoarding cash would be muted after his excellent capital deployment during/around the 2008 crisis (GE, GS, BNI, Wrigley, Swiss Re, etc)... Aw but people dont see the correlation. They want excess cash to be paid out and huge capital gains from Mr. Market. Interesting times.

Aside from the Canal and some long term geo political ..... I dont see what the big deal is. From a personal perspective its nice to see people rise up. Also Kuppy has an interesting take on it. I kind of disagree that this is Bernanke's fault. Other governments have to deal with their own inflation.

You forgot two key words - in moderation. I cant help on the buyback, republican, or flyer pieces though.

Seems like a tough way to make a buck ;). A wise man once said, The market can remain .........

Hipsters may be trendy but no one thinks they are healthy or hot (though we would have to ask the females). I am getting old, I find myself muttering Kids these day.....

Its surprising how on point Jobs was.

Lol I agree. Having withdrawals. Coffee isnt so bad. But tea isnt the same. I do sugar once a week and its a real threat honestly, you really come to appreciate it when its not a 3 times a day thing. Its kind of nice. I also agree with everyone else. Without the sugar you can really tell good tea and coffee vs. bad tea / coffee.

I think with BRK you knew what you were getting into before you bought your shares :). That lack of dividend is actually what generated a large part of the capital gains you have, you cant have both.

REITs are A overvalued and B will trade down inmo. With high inflation comes high fixed income yields risk free. Reits trade at 3% - 5%. In the long run you make money, they will raise rents and the debt will be inflated away but it will be painful in the short run as the yield goes back to 7%, 10%, or 15%. With that said I own a REIT or 2.

I would love to move most of my portfolio to those small cap ideas, and I probably do need to start screening a bit more. I think we are a bit too focused on gold and oil, but I also think its just highly related to the outlook. I dont really know what its like to live in an inflationary environment and from reading about Brazil and Germany, hyper inflation frankly sucks. I think we all just want to leave the table with a decent sized chip stack that can actually buy stuff should stuff hit the fan. Hopefully either more smaller cap non commodity ideas come up, or the leaders of the country come up with a credible plan which quiets the inflation talk.

I tend to agree with Einhorn. Moody's is part of the problem. This is a very logical change but poorly timed. They do seem to pile on when things are bad, and paint a better picture when things are good.