patience_and_focus

Makes sense. Thanks!

Why can't the fixed component go higher than 0.4? Agree that if it doesn't and we get mid 3 as the rate I will liquidate also after 3 months of new rate kicking in.

This. IMHO somewhat similar to iPhone /Android apps ecosystem that decimated a lot of niche businesses, this will replace a lot of them. But the lions share might go towards the top dogs like Google, MSFT, etc. Apple is so far a non player it seems like, unless there is a secret internal effort or they buy the talent and product by acquisition.

It depends on what people want (when given a choice - autocracies don't count). Part of Western bias (in middle east) was assumption of wanting western style democratic states. As for India, I have been told by numerous immigrants that people there are very independent minded in the sense that they don't like being told what to do and there is also huge diversity of language (> 25) and culture (like Europe). That is why it's like herding cats. But all in all people prefer their way / subcultures and are allowed to practice that. That is what matters.

+ Well rounded is squarely what Charlie has in mind when he talks about using breadth of knowledge for building mental models and applying them.

Which brings the question of interest rate risk and risk adjusted returns ( hard to precisely compute). Assuming inflation is very hard to predict (especially the timeframe it will last), in benign or low inflation bonds seems to do ok and close to equity. What about high inflation? Just look at Buffet's record in 60s, 70s and 80s (30 years prior to this Coke period).

This is exactly why it is interesting to Microsoft and will be integrated with GitHub's co-pilot.

+1 And even if the intent is to hold till maturity there is opportunity risk. One could argue that the money (not tied up in 2% real returns for 20 years) could be used to intelligently buy equities when they are so beat up that they result in better than 2% real return over 20 years.

It's actually not 1/3 but higher (42%) that don't own stocks. Also out of 58% that do own some amount, the balance is only $25k average. Most of them will own miniscule amount. So it's safe to say more than half the population does not give a shit about stock market and do give a lot of shit about inflation. https://news.gallup.com/poll/266807/percentage-americans-owns-stock.aspx https://www.fool.com/research/how-many-americans-own-stock/

Existential, really!? Because Ukraine army wants to erase Russian identity and is marching across border into St Petersburg? If Putin uses nuclear weapons, then surely there will be existential threat to current Russian regime.

I am not sure if markets are predicting correctly by how much the rates will rise and for how long exactly. If we look at US treasury bond yields as of today, the 10 year yields (3.97) are lower than 2 year yields (4.30) suggesting that the prediction is for a ball park in early to mid 4 percent. Timewise looking at 3, 5 & 7 year yields, between 3-5 year mark from today the rates will either stabilize or start trending downward. So yeah, "its priced in" by some aggregate (and incomprehensible) "formula" in the stock market. But that does not mean that the prediction and consequently the "price" of s&p 500 is right today. At any rate, unless we are buying s&p 500 index for example, this exercise of predicting an aggregate stock market bottom is of limited value for finding individual stock bargains (which of-course will be affected by interest rate, but is one of the many factors including hodling time). The doldrums of the 1970s with high inflation lasted roughly 9 years (from peak to trough). Yield curve (10 year - 2 year) was inverted for many of those years, even though technically we were not in recession this whole decade. Just saying that it could continue for a while.

I actually 100% agree with what you said. But political defeat is important as well (just ask Russians whose leader will not accept political defeat - although in this case he is also loosing not winning militarily, at least so far). A determined local population (with support from external powers and actors) willing to fight tooth and nail against a perceived invading military force is a bad setup. Even if US did not loose militarily, it was impossible to sustain in the long term. US did not learn from Vietnam going into into Afganistan and Russia did not learn from Afganistan going into Ukraine.

That is why Vietnam was such a great success (to paraphrase Borat) for the US! And seems like Russia is destined for equal success, especially because of current eutopia for men who are being drafted. Draft, in many cases, is a sign of weakness, not strength. I am not sure if that is a strength either, especially in the modern age of declining fertility and aging population. Country without men and working adults in sufficient numbers is not something to strive for. Even if this war ends up distroying Ukraine, Russia will also feel the aftermath for years to come. US, on the other hand, is just watching from far (and supplying resources of-course) without the body bags.

We should have an open mind, why can't it be both - doing a good deed whilst also benefiting from it. Gotta be able to count to more than one I guess. There is a saying - two birds with one stone. I will still admire it because we (they) are all here to make money and in this process if it ends up doing some good, more power to us (them). That is why I also admire (but will not invest with) Elon. The guy single handedly changed the tajectory of EVs and did more good than many environmentalists would, together, in their entire lifetime. But he is also crazy and a jerk from a business point of view imo and could easily blow his (and stockholders) fortune due to his eccentricities. People are complicated, issues are complicated.

Yes. Also great camping / kayaking place in Minnesota is Lake Kabetogama as part of Voyageurs National Park. Absolutely stunning, especially this time of the year.

+1 Not only that there are relatively very few immigrants using social assistance as compared to natives, it is a lie that is being peddled by stating that legal immigrants use up my hard earned tax dollars into programs like SNAP because of the 1996 act severly restricting access of SNAP and other social program benefits to even legal immigrants (see below - this from CATO institute which is a right leaning organization). That distinction belongs to many of our own esteemed native borns. Infact almost all of the tax dollars go to native borns and among them are many, who, despite given opportunities to climb the economic ladder via hard work and opportunity to study the right trade, refused to do so only to come back and blame the "system". This even in the presence of many of their relatives who were making the most of the opportunity provided by this country. https://www.cato.org/publications/economic-development-bulletin/poor-immigrants-use-public-benefits-lower-rate-poor "Low‐income immigrants use public benefits like Medicaid or the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, formerly the Food Stamp Program) at a lower rate than low‐income native‐born citizens. Many immigrants are ineligible for public benefits because of their immigration status. Nonetheless, some claim that immigrants use more public benefits than the native born, creating a serious and unfair burden for citizens. This analysis provides updated analysis of immigrant and native‐born utilization of Medicaid, SNAP, cash assistance (Temporary Assistance for Needy Families and similar programs), and the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program based on the most recent data from the Census Bureau’s March 2012 Current Population Survey (CPS)" Conclusion Low-income non-citizen adults and children generally have lower rates of public benefit use than native-born adults or citizen children whose parents are also citizens. Moreover, when low-income non-citizens receive public benefits, the average value of benefits per recipient is almost always lower than for the native-born. For Medicaid, if there are 100 native-born adults, the annual cost of benefits would be about $98,400, while for the same number of non-citizen adults the annual cost would be approximately $57,200. The benefits cost of non-citizens is 42 percent below the cost of the native-born adults. Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 (hereinafter “welfare law”), Pub. L. No. 104– 193, 110 Stat. 2105 (Aug. 22, 1996); and Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act of 1996 (hereinafter “IIRIRA”), enacted as Division C of the Defense Department Appropriations Act, 1997, Pub. L. No. 104–208, 110 Stat. 3008 (Sept. 30, 1996).

Yes, but to stop it, you also need a govt or collective on the other side. Govt is a necessary evil because without it adversaries will (a) form a collective by pooling resources (call it Govt backed by taxes - either democratic or autocratic by force) (b) sense weakness outside their sphere of influence and exploit it. Nothing is utopia, but the next best thing is to pray that the collective is a democratic govt with the heft that can stop your adversaries so that people inside that collective usually live in relative peace and freedom. Now, nothing is stopping the democratic govt from starting their own oppression on people outside their purview but that is the best one can do.

+100 Fed will do what it must to tame inflation or whatever objective they have using the tools they have at their disposal. And they will change their minds too. It is what it is, not under the control of investors. Same goes for geopolitical situations when investing in stocks abroad. Same goes for companies with shitty management. Not in the control of average investor to change that (most of the time). One should operate with what is their control (due diligence, position sizing, long term view, avoiding donuts, playing volatility, yada yada). Sometimes shit will happen without the investors fault as not everything is knowable. But this is the nature of the game. Everyone is responsible for their own financial well being and there are plenty of way to avoid total disaster. By the way, if Fed was so terrible, we would not be the #1 economy in the world by far for the last 80 years. It is easy to point fingers after the fact but everyone (including the Fed) has to make choices and every choice has consequences in the other direction. It is not too different in investing either where we make choices all the time (including opportunity costs of not doing anything) and those weigh on the performance. Relative is the best one can do in many life situations (sort of like democracy which looks total shit, but then you look around for alternatives and be glad that you have it the way it is).

Anecdotal. I have Geico insurance for my cars and also have home insurance through their partners. Have been with them over a decade and half. I got my 6 monthly car insurance renewal bill last week and my cost of insuring my 2 cars went down by 15%! Not sure what is going on here but I am a happy customer as we don't drive much (work from home) and they are giving the best deal I can get out there. Disclosure: I am a BRK stockholder.

Every old generation thinks that the new one is a slacker. It ain't so, (a) they are just different from the preceding generation (b) Preceding generation was slacking in their own way. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generation_X "Generation X (or Gen X for short) is the demographic cohort following the baby boomers and preceding the millennials. .......As adolescents and young adults in the 1980s and 1990s, Xers were dubbed the "MTV Generation" (a reference to the music video channel), sometimes being characterized as slackers, cynical, and disaffected. "

I am a novice when it comes to this topic, so this is genuine question. Isn't Gold prices just a proxy correlate for inflation? Inflation by definition is general increase in price and falling of purchasing power of fiat as far as I understand. So why can't Gold price movement not follow the usual observations when it comes to inflation?

This is very gutsy to do in Russia right now. No idea if this is general sentiment or just one pissed off rich guy venting loss of money and stature - https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/19/russian-bank-founder-oleg-tinkov-condemns-ukraine-war-seeks-putin-exit.html "Tinkov, in an impassioned Instagram post, also claimed that “90% of Russians are AGAINST this war!” He also argued that the remaining 10% are “morons,” and that the Russian army has been exposed as ’sh---y.”"

+1 Run a tight ship and most households can minimize impact. A productive nation like US will be able to adjust and absorb this high inflation for some time at least. Also, I think 30 year fixed mortgage is a blessing in US. God bless US of A! I am left with 20 years on my loan at 1.99% APR (after last refinance). In the meantime my house value has risen more than two and half times. Cannot ask for a better deal.