Valuehalla

Epic comment !

9 B $ or more, less would be disappointing

This is what’s going on. I wish I was joking... https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/ So they taked up LUMN as well ? Can not find that..

Folks, what is going on? Yesterday BB was up 30 % and today LUMN is up 30 %... ? And no reason for both ?

Buybacks: I can not see a change in WEBs mind. On the day before the AM (2th May) BRK.B was at 182,67$, the days before even higher. He said on 2th May the price is not more interesting than in January (when the price was in mid 220$ and he bought back). Also he reffered with his statement to the current moment. 1) Buyback prices of 175$ in May are app 5 % cheaper than the 183$ before his statement. 2) It is not our aim as shareholders that WEB creates the impression of "strong buybacks are coming next week." They shall do buybacks as cheap as possible. It is very smart to give a statement like he has done, to get ready for buybacks and start them massivly. Meanwhile the Coronadust on the battlefield has settled down, there is no panic anymore and right now i estimate a BV of 175$ the B share (like yearend 2019). So we are trading right now just 20 % above BV with 210$. 175 $ + 30 % is app 228 $ (after the older buyback rule BV+30%). if you add 45 % to reach app IV it is 254 $ (after the new buyback rule). 3) So I expect no further comments from him (would even be negativ to inform the public about further buybacks) and I expect he will go on with heavy buybacks till minimum 228 $ (like January). All information according buybacks is given in the written reports/decissions, now he is just silently exercising them. It is contraproductive to ring the bell before or while doing it. Concerning the cashpile and additionally the incoming cash, he can easily buyback half of the outstanding shares within 10 years. Think about that....

CTL Centurylink

Lang & Schwarz is a private exchange / marketplace opening at 7.30 am, than later at 8 am Tradegate is opening as well The ticker of the B shares in Europe is BRYN. Depending on the bank or Broker you can also use the WKN (Wertpapierkennnummer ) A0YJQ2 for BRK.B I sucked the maximum available shares at Lang & Schwarz for the mentioned price a few seconds after 7.30 am.

I woke up for Omaha today at 7 am at my German time to buy a bulk of B shares in Lang&Schwarz directly at 7.30. I paid 174.13 Euro ( = app 201.30 $) in first trade and 175,74 Euro (= app 203,16 $) in second on other account. I hope my sacrifice will be rewarded, when Wall Street opens. Hard work is done. 8)

So what does it mean? what is a conservative IV for today ?

Ok thats in fact a good point. Maybe WEB and CM look on it in the same way. We will see. But to me, I think its wrong, not conservative. Becasue the BV today is app 225.600. This means already 3,6 % up since end Q2. And believe me, my calculation is already conservative in itself.

Agreed. It moved up like what? 4% after the buyback cap was lifted? Not a move at all. Still 10% below the highs. Maybe there will be a chance to purchase shares ~$200 over the coming weeks. Or maybe the golden opportunity was the past two weeks when Buffett telegraphed what will likely be a massive, potentially accelerated, buyback. BRK moved up after the 17rh July, but the BV also moved up driven by AAPL etc. the lowest valuation during the last weeks was app 1.28, now it is 1.32.

the price to book value is now app 1.32, not 1.399

I think the situation concerning the buybacks is quite clear. According to the buyback text from 17th July: till 3rd August happened nothing. We are clearly under a conservative IV, because we just trade 1.32 x BV. IV shall be around 240 to 275 $ per B share. (See various estimations for the IV; for example Semper Augustus Letter) For me this means: from Monday on, the buybacks will start. They will end below a market price of 240 $ per B share Bulks of cash are ready. The time between 17th July (when the buyback was announced) till 3rd August was the time to load shares, cause the anoucment was more or less without any reasonable market results. During all this time we traded around 1.3 BV.

Hi John, my figures are not cursory. They are deeply calculated. I am just to laszy to publish the details. Soon we will see, how precise these figures were. Even today we are trading just app 1.28 x BV FIGURES ARE OUT : 145.118 $ per B (217.755 A) The calculated BV figures - published from me here in the forum at end of Q1, see above - were extremly precise. Just 0.05 % difference. Thats nearly nothing. BRK is now ( today) extremly cheap. We are just trading at 1.32 BV. The BV today is app 150.40 $ per B. So extremly up since end of 2Q driven by AAPL BAC KHC etc

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/18/warren-buffett-finds-an-elephant-in-berkshires-own-backyard.html "Berkshire's book value, based on its B shares, is estimated at $149 a share, while its intrinsic value is more like $236, according to calculations by J. P. Morgan Chase analysts." BV with 149 $ is app close to my own calculations (148.50 $ KHC adjusted) for today after close.