DooDiligence

Episodes 2 & 3 are excellent as well. Watching the way Einstein struggled, largely because of his rebellious nature, is inspirational. Sometimes unconventional thought produces great things. If you have ideas, you should pursue them regardless of what the so called experts say.

I did this by associating fantastic gains from the purchase & sale of LEAP Calls on EW around 2013. The gains were further extended by purchasing the equity at the same time. A gift that keeps on giving. I tried to replicate this with Altria with abysmal results. I still own the Jan 2021 $50 Calls & expect to book a loss on those. I got lucky with EW & don't believe I'll try this again. --- This concept may also apply to shallow impressions of people.

The subscription fee is only for those that want the upgraded services above and beyond the message board. Otherwise, they would have full access and use of the message board as they do now. So nothing would change for the majority of users or new users. Cheers! Good that subscription is actually a "freemium" model and doesn't deter more voices from being on the board. Sanjeev, you've done a great job with this Board and I've often wondered about the "why" behind all the effort spent. If one can align incentives for participants and for organizers, there will be a path forward. Monetizing it means it will be sustainable. Otherwise, volunteer efforts whither away and quality decreases. It seems to me that there are basically 2 populations on CoBF. The wholesale segment generates actionable intelligence which can be monetized in the markets & the retail segment which gets monetized in a more superficial way on the front end. If I were Sanjeev, I'd be primarily motivated to generate information & deal flow from the more productive members of the site. Any walls (pay or otherwise) should be implemented simply to segment the population & any pennies made on the front end can be used to offset the costs of running the site. I would most definitely be categorized as a part of the retail population & would be placed outside the walls unless I'm willing to pony up & be subject to strict posting requirements. This fact doesn't offend me in the least as long as I can still lurk around & improve my thought processes & occasionally coattail a good idea. Feel free to monetize me however possible. I'd definitely buy a cool t-shirt!

I have personally had the experience pictured & quoted above by cherzeca lately, and speculated it was a software bug. Personally, it has been, to me, an unpleasant & very annoying experience. That said, no way, I'm going to leave, nor stop participating & reading CoBF. [i suppose, if CoBF stops to exist, I'll go into suicidal mode. [ : - D]] I experience this only when using Safari on my iPad. I actually click on ads periodically, not because I'm interested in the product or service advertised, but just to throw some ad revenue to Sanjeev.

Just watched episode 1 of Genius & it was very good. https://youtu.be/SICLBlHizU

Second that & would add the title Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of CoBF.

I like AFL a lot too. I owned it a long time ago & sold for a nice gain, then forgot about it until recently. A decade ago, they were getting nearly 80% of their pre-tax earnings from Japan. They made their bones selling supplemental cancer insurance policies in the only country to have 2 nukes dropped on it. For years, I was perplexed by the fact that they've bombarded the US with TV ads & didn't seem to be making inroads but the geographic revenue mix has started skewing towards the US market. I also like that their payouts are fixed & non-negotiable, unlike P & C & health insurers (correct me if I'm wrong here) & they do cover payouts for covid. Most premiums are made through payroll deduction so yeah, the threat to near term earnings is real. They could also experience problems with their investment portfolio in a serious deflationary environment. As per the March 2020 conference call: "we have identified approximately $1.4 billion of middle market loans, most exposed in the current environment and have stress tested $1.3 billion of transitional real estate. While this economic crisis is unprecedented and predicting the trajectory of the economy and recovery is difficult, we have taken a pretty bearish view in our credit stress test. For instance, we have assumed an extremely severe second quarter drop in economic activity of 30% to 50% with just a modest pickup through year-end; revenue declines of 30% to 80%, depending on the specific sector and company; losses on our most sensitive below investment-grade and middle-market loans of up to 20%; oil prices staying below $20 for most of the year as demand slowly recovers. Let me emphasize that the impacts to the global and U.S. economy are going to be highly volatile and very difficult to predict. We will continue to evaluate as more economic information becomes available, along with the impacts to the sectors and companies in our portfolio. Our loss analysis estimates approximately $680 million in pre-tax potential losses. This equates to approximately 100 basis points of potential losses on our total fixed maturity and loan portfolios, of which fixed maturity corporates are 72 basis points." --- Here's a very good report from 2012 that lays out every aspect of how they operate(d). https://www.aflac.com/us/en/docs/investors/fabbook2012_06222012.pdf

I'm pretty sure most off the shelf forum software has a variety of options that can be implemented (or not) at the admins option. I agree custom software is unnecessary. Joomla is a very robust & extensible open source content management system with a vibrant community of developers. www.joomla.org Community builder is a great Joomla extension with coms, plugins & mods to accomplish just about any function mentioned here. There are a ton of other coms, plugins & mods to handle everything from tiered subscription offerings, data migration, event management, e-commerce (who doesn't want a CoBF t-shirt?), and more. I've authored many Joomla sites using LAMP installations on shared hosting plans. None of my sites served as many users as CoBF but I believe it would scale nicely if you used a dedicated host. I still can't believe that the core Joomla installation package is free.

Please leave your politics in the "Politics" section. He's half white and half black. But you've chosen to lower the bar of discussion by pointing out only that he's black. Cheers! Are you insinuating he got a better contract because he was half white? Last I checked you have plenty of people far less than 50% claiming identities...like a certain Massachusetts senator. He got a crazy contract because of his skills. He is what most consider(maybe not Joe Biden) black, and I just think its worth noting that there are definitely certain levels of success available to ALL Americans, which is what the American dream is/was all about. No, I'm saying that race has no part in it and you were making it a discussion about race. Cheers! New Thread Topic... What's your favorite type of orange? Post 1: Donald Trump Post 2: Why are you bringing politics to a discussion on oranges? Post 3: Are you insinuating that he's not an orange? Roy Cohn leaves a lasting legacy.

I don’t think what he is talking about (totalitarian kind of subversion) Does not apply to our current situation all that well. We now have an abundance of Information sources with rapid feedback mechanisms which gives you exactly the kind of information that you want or should I say deserve. Those things didn’t exist in the Soviet Union or other totalitarian stated in the 1980’s and before and they lead to somewhat different issues. Many people are choosing to ignore readily available information sources (as if they did not exist) & are relying on demagogues instead. ;)

Fingers crossed that this is a trend. https://propertycasualtyfocus.com/two-early-rulings-in-favor-of-insurers-in-covid-19-insurance-coverage-litigation/

Bloomberg article accusing BRK of being just another conglomerate. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-25/berkshire-hathaway-is-looking-like-just-another-conglomerate There's a really good graphic that illustrates the sizes of BRK businesses relative to each other, based on employees. Insurance industry analyst Meyer Shields gives a backhanded complement. Outtakes from prominent money managers.

Textbook example. I like the way he escalates the commitment & projects his own friendlessness on you.

Nice. I think we have quite a few high level investors here on CoBF. I would add to this article that an individual, regardless of their level, can muck it all up by allowing emotions to get in the way.

Tell me more ;)

In a spirit of continued ridiculousness & rather than post this nonsense in a BRK thread, here you go. https://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-acme-brick-battles-conspiracies-planted-supplied-protests-2020-6

Policyholders are free to sign or not sign. Don't like the price or terms, don't sign. Trial attorneys are vermin.

If we're going to ban confederate flags, you should also ban any other flags that might offend people. It's not right to censor one view just because group X gets offended but allow another flag to go even though it offends group Y. That's bullshit. There are plenty of instances of banned flags because of what they represent. Throughout most of the eastern block you cannot display flags with the hammer and sickle for example. In Germany it is illegal to display the Third Reich flag or any nazi symbols. These laws are mainly for a few whackaoos because no organization in their right mind over there would ever display one of these flags or symbols. Keep in mind that these were actually the official country flags for these countries. In some cases for a long period of time and they are banned. The idea of banning the battle flag of a bunch of traitors that started an open insurrection against a country that led to the deadliest war that country has ever experienced isn't that out there. I'm not a fan of the confederate flag but I see no reason why the folks who enjoy that flag should be discriminated against if one is really "tolerant." We're not talking about Germany here. We're talking about the US. Would you be in favor of then, saying banning something like the flag of Japan because we were at war with them at one time and that they bombed Pearl Harbor? Spoken like someone who's never spent any quality time in NW FL or lower AL. It's not a matter of "enjoying" the confederate flag. It's a symbol of racism & those who fly it are making their feelings known. If you doubt what I'm saying, I invite you to visit & I'll take you on a tour of our beautiful beaches. It's a symbol of racism to you. That doesn't mean they see it way. Why be so intolerant? The invitation is wide open. Come on down & get a good look at your enjoyable flag & it’s proud wavers. I’ll grill up some crow for you.

If we're going to ban confederate flags, you should also ban any other flags that might offend people. It's not right to censor one view just because group X gets offended but allow another flag to go even though it offends group Y. That's bullshit. There are plenty of instances of banned flags because of what they represent. Throughout most of the eastern block you cannot display flags with the hammer and sickle for example. In Germany it is illegal to display the Third Reich flag or any nazi symbols. These laws are mainly for a few whackaoos because no organization in their right mind over there would ever display one of these flags or symbols. Keep in mind that these were actually the official country flags for these countries. In some cases for a long period of time and they are banned. The idea of banning the battle flag of a bunch of traitors that started an open insurrection against a country that led to the deadliest war that country has ever experienced isn't that out there. I'm not a fan of the confederate flag but I see no reason why the folks who enjoy that flag should be discriminated against if one is really "tolerant." We're not talking about Germany here. We're talking about the US. Would you be in favor of then, saying banning something like the flag of Japan because we were at war with them at one time and that they bombed Pearl Harbor? Spoken like someone who's never spent any quality time in NW FL or lower AL. It's not a matter of "enjoying" the confederate flag. It's a symbol of racism & those who fly it are making their feelings known. If you doubt what I'm saying, I invite you to visit & I'll take you on a tour of our beautiful beaches.

Greg, I don't need a thesaurus to know you are a racist. But just so are fully aware of how racist this word is: "'This word is our N-word': Indigenous teacher asks Urban Planet to drop racial slur" https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/offensive-term-remove-urban-planet-1.5305540 Does he also chew with his mouth open? Is consideration of others a 'Liberal' value? The word "Liberal" has become a slur with nebulous filthy connotations. People who toss this word around do so because they're told to. Children aren't born fascists, they're herded into it.

I think undoubtedly, yes. I've definitely been guilty of this, when I look at my past errors. Knowing how many smart people there are in the game, I would think that a solution that is so seemingly so obvious couldn't possibly work, and look for something 'cleverer'. Five years later, the obvious thing had done much better than I had. And if you're the sort of person who's an intellectual snob, you may keep doing it, which is why I think humility and 'rubbing your nose in your mistakes' per Munger is so important for an investor. Separately, if people realise that sometimes the solution is simple, then it puts financial advisors in trouble! William of Ockham was a stud.

I think Edwards Lifesciences will do well in an inflationary environment. Saw this today re: EW's approval in China for Sapien 3 trans-catheter heart valve for the treatment of patients suffering from severe, symptomatic aortic stenosis (AS) at high risk for or unable to undergo open-heart surgery & figured this was as good a place as any to post it. www.edwards.com/ns20200608 Not egregiously cheap but not crazy expensive either. They just did a 3:1 split so don't be fooled if a chart shows a big price swing over the past month.

This is just anecdotal, but may add a little more color to anyone wanting to understand the industry. I've been to VicenzaOro many times & if you want quality, Italy is a great place to go (bring a very large wallet with you though). Hong Kong manufacturers (and Thai jewelers to a lesser extent) will copy just about anything & do a very good job of it, but will frequently use inferior quality gemstones (in particular, diamond melee). TBF they offer significantly lower prices, and something has to give, but even if you offer to pay a bit more for better melee, you'll be hard pressed to get the reliability of an Italian manufacturer. That plus the established haute couture names, make for an interesting segment of the market. Basically, there are 2 types of jewelers, those who sell branded (haute couture) merchandise with higher margins & slightly lower turns, and those who sell lesser brands & commoditized products at slightly lower margins & higher turns. Branded jewelers tend to have higher spend on required coop adds in order to promote brands. Commoditized jewelers will have more optionality with regards to participating in coop ads which become more requisite if they are members of buying groups and depending on the stroke of the brands they carry. --- Disclaimer: My hiatus from the offshore industry, into wholsale jewelery, was an abysmal failure. I'd have difficulty selling air conditioners on the equator. I think in this case, brand name, status attached to country of origin matter just as much a the quality of the merchandise. Northern Italy is well known for fine jewelers and Fope is a niche business with a global reach (85% of their revenues are foreign) that can exploit this, I think. Based on the price I paid 7 Euro and change), it trades at 7x EBIT. It’s too small for LVMH, but the new 59% owners have an investment banking background and saw value here. I hope they do t screw it up. I see a good chance they they follow up with a buyout when this COVID thing is over. I know this is a very different business than Fope & it's not intended as a comparison but Swatch bought Harry Winston around 2013. They don't break out the results in reports but they do say "Harry Winston will continue its dynamic growth trend in 2019". In recent reports they attribute slightly higher inventories to gold & gemstone purchases related to Harry Winston. They own the swinging luxury watch brands Breguet, Blancpain, Glashutte, Jaquet Droz & the more pedestrian Omega. Their lesser brands include Tissot, Longines, Hamilton, Rado & of course, Swatch. If you believe that the watch industry won't be decimated over time ;) (I've never been able to get comfortable with this possibility) these guys product the vast majority of the worlds mechanical movements & escarpments. If you claim to be a luxury timepiece manufacturer & you don't produce everything down to the tiniest little spring & screw, you're not as cherished by aficionados. Very clean balance sheet, possibly offset by high insider ownership which may or may not be aligned with the little people. The father built this company & the children could fritter it away. Annual reports are front loaded with society page fluff & the actual numbers are buried in the back.

Yuck, yuck, yuck (insert rimshot here)

This is just anecdotal, but may add a little more color to anyone wanting to understand the industry. I've been to VicenzaOro many times & if you want quality, Italy is a great place to go (bring a very large wallet with you though). Hong Kong manufacturers (and Thai jewelers to a lesser extent) will copy just about anything & do a very good job of it, but will frequently use inferior quality gemstones (in particular, diamond melee). TBF they offer significantly lower prices, and something has to give, but even if you offer to pay a bit more for better melee, you'll be hard pressed to get the reliability of an Italian manufacturer. That plus the established haute couture names, make for an interesting segment of the market. Basically, there are 2 types of jewelers, those who sell branded (haute couture) merchandise with higher margins & slightly lower turns, and those who sell lesser brands & commoditized products at slightly lower margins & higher turns. Branded jewelers tend to have higher spend on required coop adds in order to promote brands. Commoditized jewelers will have more optionality with regards to participating in coop ads which become more requisite if they are members of buying groups and depending on the stroke of the brands they carry. --- Disclaimer: My hiatus from the offshore industry, into wholsale jewelery, was an abysmal failure. I'd have difficulty selling air conditioners on the equator.