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ValueMaven

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Everything posted by ValueMaven

  1. Given todays ruling even $2.50 is rich for FNMAS. Talk anchoring and time value of money. Brutal.
  2. Bet against Malone at your own discretion. Several catalysts here - one of which is the 80% threshold which they will hit in either 4Q21, or 1Q22 - in which case Liberty can start aggressively buying back shares - with zero tax leak (same tax filing). Also SIRI current guidance is likely conservative - but that might be priced in already. Capital allocation (buybacks at parent or holdco), and tax status will be key here. Will be interesting to follow this regardless.
  3. wow - couldn't disagree more. Look at the margins. Look at results during and through the covid quarters. Look at the subscriber base. Look at how they are reducing the share-count. Malone and Maffei have recently called SIRI a 'great business'. You need to understand the benefits of talk radio, and the value SIRI offers vs. the cost. I think more than the P transaction, was the LiveNation deal they did...which is now up a lot - but the market isnt given them credit for it at all. Next few quarters will be interesting.
  4. The more I study the Sirius situation, the more the tracking stock intrigues me. Earnings in late July will be very, very interesting.
  5. I'm glad the stock stopped running higher actually.
  6. Texas grid operator urges electricity conservation as many power generators are unexpectedly offline and temperatures rise https://www.texastribune.org/2021/06/14/texas-power-grid-conserve-ercot/
  7. Bought LSXMK. 35% discount to underlying - which is wider then normal. 77% ownership of SIRI now, and closing in on 80%.
  8. Looks like Blackstone is going to acquire Medline. Depending on valuation, this is just the type of business that would have been a perfect home for Berkshire. https://www.wsj.com/articles/group-including-blackstone-nears-deal-to-buy-medline-for-over-30-billion-11622910788?mod=markets_lead_pos1
  9. https://www.wsj.com/articles/texas-electrical-grid-bigger-disaster-february-freeze-black-starts-11622124896?mod=searchresults_pos6&page=1 This is an extremely interesting article on a topic I knew nothing about. Basically Texas was very close to having a total grid failure. Hopefully this report - which has over 600 comments - highlights the need for reform in their power market. Still optimistic that BHE is involved somehow in a solution. The ideal high CAPEX, fixed return type of capital outlay we love to see.
  10. way to many adds on the new site. Please bring back the old structure!!
  11. We should find out tonight who the mystery A share buyer has been. The position size will likely be between $5B - $7B. I really do wonder who it might be.
  12. Do we find out who the mystery A share buyer is tonight????
  13. Is the mystery A share buyer out yet? I havent seen anything published on this yet....possibly Monday??
  14. Here is a crazy but interesting idea. Berkshire issues $20B shares to acquire Markel. Get's huge float, profitable and unique underwriting business it can easily fold into the Primary Group. Gayner joins the board. Then buysback $20B worth of stock. Roll Markel Ventures into MSR unit. Just an idea
  15. https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1036775/berkshire-bounces-back-in-q1-on-solid-operating-results
  16. Pilot Flying J made a massive 1 time dividend to HQ. Anyone else notice that??
  17. Fairly impressive actually. Valuation still seems VERY reasonable at 1.3x BV. Buybacks slowed, but profitability at insurance improved. BHE is growing rapidly. Interesting to see a sale of ~$3B in equities during the quarter. Frankly, the results were stronger then expected IMHO. Still reading through 10Q.
  18. Chou is totally washed up and his performance shows it. Sorry, he has had some terrible allocations over the past decade. It isnt just his style being out of favor either.
  19. Bloomstrad on Berkshire. Very informative: https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/episodes/masterclass-in-valuations-w-chris-bloomstran/
  20. Thanks John. Any more updates? I'm still on the fence.
  21. Both should be paid more...not less!!
  22. https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/southcentral/2021/04/16/610232.htm
  23. That idea does not make much sense. You are talking about $1B - $1.5B per day over the last several weeks of excess trading vol compared to historical norms. Today alone it is 1pm EST and BRKA has traded over 1800 shares vs. 15 for trailing 3M average. Also, there are regulatory requirements when a company buys-back greater then 25% of the daily trading amount. The mystery continues...
  24. still heavy trading vol in the A shares over the past few weeks. Yesterday at 1,900 shares alone. We will find out in a few weeks what all of this means...
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