Packer16

Geosatellites are the backbone of many communications/media networks. They are key pieces of communications infrastructure. If you look at the margins (upper 70s to 80s EBITDA margins) and LT contracts (up to 15 year contracts) these firms have you can see that this is the case. The Intelsat 20-F has some good information about the market and the competitiveness in each of the 3 major market segments (telecom, media & gov't). The overall market is about a $13 billion/year market growing at about 3% per year. Packer

It depends upon which segment and type of satellite. The best part of the business is the geostationary satellites as they command very good margins for the bandwidth they provide and there is a fixed number of satellites that can be in a given location. Typically, these guys are leasing transponder space to other communications firms. They also have long-term recurring revenue. They also include Sirius, SKY Perfect & DirecTV. Competitors include Intelsat, Inmarsat, SES and some smaller Asian firms. Other satellite service providers that have non-geo satellites are in a different position. Some of the imagery providers are good businesses but others with smaller satellites & large constellations are not. The satellite makers are cyclical as other hardware producers are and do not have the recurring revenue of the geo satellite service providers so these are dependent where you are in the satellite build cycle.

I am not saying they are not wrong but when folks who have contrarian traits have beliefs that differ from the "obvious" consensus view, it is worth examining these contrarian views as they may have some very good merit. Packer

For all of those who are skeptical of Trump, you should read Scott Adams, Dilbert blog. It provided me with a lot of insight divorced from the media induced bias of listening to Trumps words without watching his actions. I was also curious why would guys like Wilbur Ross & Carl Ichan, two folks who are accomplished business people would support him if he is as dangerous as some claim. Just a contrarian veiwpoint. Packet

Real estate has probably created more wealth than any other asset class on earth but where are the accounts of the great real estate investors? I know of two RE investors (Sam Zell, Bruce Flatt) but many good equity investors. If you know of any and/or their writings that would be appreciated. TIA. Packer

My question is cost. If the cost is low then no problem. The amount of resources we have to deal with the world's problem is limited and we should focus for the largest bang for the identifiable buck. Most of the global warming solutions are very expensive in terms of benefit. Technology will reduce this cost over time and thus do what we can inexpensively today and when a tech breakthrough happens use that versus spending resources today on expensive solutions. I think what some have done is to develop speculative scenarios to justify spending money in front of other projects that have a larger impact. Packer

I think the Saudis are missing that peak demand is not effected by oil prices as long a subsidies are strong and technology is really driving peak demand not prices. There already enough incentives with subsidies to develop the technology. What is preventing a faster transition is the state of technology not the economics because the subsidies are ensuring the short term economics for the alternatives are OK. Packer

It looks like Dhando has launched its first ETF, Dhandho Junoon ETF under the symbol JUNE. Here is a link to the etf site: http://www.dhandhoetfs.com/ Lets see hoe this goes. Packer

I have looked at Keck Seng but from what I saw most of the undervaluation versus other HK RE hold cos was due to expected property sales in Macau. If the properties revert back to 2012 pricing then I have a 33 cent dollar or about an NAV of HK$17/share, which would put it in the range of a buy. However, if the BV is used, the NAV is closer to HK$14/share, a cheap but not a screaming buy. The ones I like that have larger discounts are Shun Ho, Asia Standard and Hopewell without the Macau Resi uncertainty. Packer

S Korea (esp preferreds), HK Real Estate hold cos & brokerage, Greece, Japan media, Asian consumer products, small cap O & G, NNN REITs for income & some media content firms like Viacom. Packer

If the end goal is to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear missile, how does dividing the issue into to help other than provide a cover for Iran to get a missile while complying with to these two agreements at different times. It sounds like Obama's been flanked by a skilled negotiator unless I am missing how Iran can get the sanctions removed (carrot) by not complying with missile part of the deal. From what I understand, Europe was going to bolt from sanctions so Obama was stuck getting what he could but as far I could tell he was not willing to spend any political capital to convince the Europeans. I think most folks have taken advantage of the US under most of the previous administrations because we do not have imperial ambitions and thus the willpower to carry through on the use of force and its consequences as some other players do. I think at some point folks say enough and maybe we have reached that point. So what you may be seeing is a reaction to an accumulation of poor negotiations amongst administrations. Packer

The idea that missile and nuclear deal are seperate is beside the end goal. The end goal is to prevent Iran from having the capability of delivering nuclear weapons. If Obama negotiated a deal that only dealt with nuclear part and not the delivery part then he got bamboozeled by the Iranians and no wonder they said yes. He negotiated a deal that does allow Iran to develop a deliverable nuclear weapon just not when he is president. Obama has made the foreign predictable, most if not all threats are walked back so that enemies of the US can take advantage of it. IMO part of foreign policy especially to rivals has to be unknown to prevent this gaming. Reagan was a master of this with the Russians and if Mr. Trump is president he will likewise be a master. Packer

In terms of tailwinds, we are 35 years into this cycle. The last time we had similar conditions, peace and globalization, after the Napoleonic wars the tailwinds lasted 80 years from 1820 to 1900. Packer

I do not know specifically but maybe due to the specialized nature of the facilities they cost more to manage. Packer

Since REITs for the most part are managing properties, the expense ratio is the total costs (except D&A and impairments) divided by the total assets. Packer

I have put together an analysis that appears to imply that lower expense ratio REITs outperform higher expense ratio REITs in all categories except retail. I have also estimated the impact of lower costs on P/FFO and in most cases the lower fee funds are undervalued at today's prices. The only exception is NNN REITs, which appear to be undervalued in general due to P/FFO being lower than the other sectors but they have longer lease terms. Just wanted to get folks feedback on this as I have not seen REITs examined on an expense ratio basis before. Thanks. Packer REIT_Expense_Ratios.xlsx

Pennwest - not for the faint hearted Pennwest is not worthless today... or is it? ;) IMO, there's a lot of small caps some even without debt loads that will go 2x+ if oil goes to 50+. So pick your poison. Actually Whitecap issued 95 million in equity today to develop production. Worth a look. Why does it make sense to develop production today versus defer it until prices rise? I can see raising money to buy cheap assets but developing production today appears to be a negative NPV project or at least a less profitable project than it will be 18 to 24 months from now. Packer

Although you cannot calculate an intrinsic value, you can qualitatively divide commodities into those who don't go away (can be recycled, like copper, gold & silver) or those who do (oil & gas). The former have an every increasing supply and thus have a downward bias in real terms. The later have the opposite characteristics. Packer

+0.6% in USD. Gains form telecom (GNCMA & NTLS), GP Investments, Fiat and Korean preferreds offset by losses in O&G (too early), AIQ, Glacier Media, GM warrants and a SPAC warrant that I was warned against & did it anyway. Packer

Using Google sheets is there a way to set the print range and have sheets fit the print area? Also, is there a way to print in color. TIA. Packer

I think we should normalize the response in a given currency, maybe USD as 0% in USD is equal to 18% in CAD. Packer

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all! Packer

This technology driven deflation has also caused a measurement problem, when a product hits free how do measure prices or output. An example is cameras. A good part of the camera functionality has been subsumed into our phones so our productivity is up but it actual shows up a decline in the GDP when the opposite is true. Packer

Not at this time because the ERP (5%) is more than 3x the real risk-free rate of 1 to 1.5% for bonds. Packet

I am not sure NIRP is policy more than the result of bankers not allowing the money supply to increase enough to offset the real deflation in the market. IMO we are in a long-term deflationary cycle that will continue until there is a some type of large capital destroying event (war, famine, disease or communist seizure of property are the typical types of events). The book The Great Wave describes these through time. The last time we were in a similar situation to today was the Victorian Era and there was deflation despite large increases in the money supply. The reason for NIRP is deflation. If nominal rates are kept positive but deflation occurs, real interest rates can crush an economy, this is what happened in the Great Depression in the US. Packer