hobbit

It doesn't look like Helios is paying anything up front. In exchange for the 46% stake Helios is committing a percentage of all future fees from its private equity funds. I haven't found any info on Helios's historical fee earnings yet. Helios manages around $3.6 billion. For now I'm assuming the deal is structured where Helios will start out contributing maybe $15 to $25 million annually. I also assume they will continue increasing their assets under management, which should generate additional fee revenue going forward. Helios will benefit from having a liquid, publicly traded, investment vehicle backed by the credibility and network that comes with Fairfax. FAH will benefit from being managed by leading, proven, investors in Africa. what does not seem right is selling ATMA for 40mil to Fairfax when Fairfax africa themselves have calculated the tangible book value around 280 mil and were selling business in 4 countries to Equity group for 105mil + u have UBN and Botswana... If helios contribute 20mil in earnings and u put multiple of 10 to that ..it implies that FAH is valued at 400mil right now? I somehow doubt helios will contribute in excess of 10 mil right now but then there is no way to be sure until we see more data...they should have released these numbers alongwith press release

Can fairfax africa sell ATMA to fairfax as a related party transaction without independently marketing it? what is the valuation helios paid for 46% stake or FAH paid for helios in shares? no color on helios revenue either...Fairfax really struggles with IR

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/atlas-mara-limited-announces-proposed-062000984.html

on the call they said next 3 years

https://www.canadianinsider.com/node/7?ticker=FAH CEO bought 7K shares

FIH,FAH

Annual letter- mistakes with ATMA ( significantly less value in holdings in countries apart from Nigeria) , UBN might turn out decent. CIG - debt restructuring in place but do not be hopeful of turn around anytime soon. I would classify this as a mistake too. No significant changes anywhere else. My conclusion - extremely undervalued at these prices unless you put the value of their entire equity stake at zero which clearly does not seem to be the case. PT $8+

Link? annual letter just published " Fairfax India intends to complete an IPO of AIIHL, targeted to value 100% of BIAL at $3.0 billion (a targeted valuation of $1.3 billion for 100% of AIIHL). A ‘‘ratchet’’ mechanism has been agreed with the investor whereby if the IPO is completed at a valuation of AIIHL below $1.3 billion, the investor will receive incremental shares of AIIHL to compensate for the difference between that actual valuation and $1.3 billion. " https://s1.q4cdn.com/293822657/files/doc_financials/annual_reports/2019/Website-Fairfax-India-2019-Shareholders-Letter.pdf do not know what to make of the ratchet clause though, I have seen it in some VC deals before.

So BIAL IPO at 3bn . I wonder if coronavirus will have an impact on the timing or valuation. If it goes through as planned at 3Bn , that would be a significant win for the shareholders.

At $4.35 per share , common stocks worth 232 mil are being marked at zero and on top of that ATMA is trading at less than its stake in UBN which has been posting good results. can easily double from here

That might be true, but it is better to withhold an opinion until we understand who the buyer is and what sort of incentives may have come into play. I raised an eyebrow about this transaction because it seems strange that a 5% stake of a long-term asset would be sold. So, why did Fairfax sell it? Did they need to drop their stake to 49% to keep the nationalists at bay? Were they desperate for an infusion of $134m of cash? Did they find a partner with specific expertise that they wanted to bring aboard? Was there some other strategic motivation that was not articulated in the presser? One potential motivation that needs to be kept in the back of our head is that this minor transaction gives Fairfax the latitude to re-value that asset on its books. Fairfax India will book a gain of $500m based on a transaction of only $134m. And then what happens? Well, the Fairfax India's booked assets will suddenly be pumped up, which gives FFH a nice little boost to its annual management fee as well as the likelihood of a 20% performance fee in 2020. So, how much wealth will be extracted from Fairfax India unit holders from that little transaction? I'm guessing that the buyer's price for the 5% slice of that airport will be somewhat similar to the amount of money that FFH extracts from unit-holders. Maybe Prem will expand on this transaction in his annual letter and the annual report to provide more disclosure? For now, I am wary, but keeping an open mind. SJ https://www.vccircle.com/north-american-pension-fund-backs-fairfax-s-india-airport-investment-plan OMERS infrastrucure - strategic investor , this was probably done to get outside validation of big mark up in book value Okay, that makes me yet a little more uncomfortable. I had been holding out hope that it was a completely new player to the FFH world. FFH sold a chunk of the airport at roughly the same time as they sold a chunk of Riverstone runoff. I just hope to hell that there was no quid pro quo on those two deals and that the BIAL transaction was done at true fair market value rather than an inflated value designed to get a favourable mark on the value of the assets. There really should be no question about this, but unfortunately on more than one occasion, Prem has been too cute by half. SJ The quid pro quo being a sweet deal on Riverstone? Can’t see why that benefits FFH. Okay, so this is all hypothetical and nothing more. We have no knowledge that would support the existence of any quid pro quo between the two transactions. We have no actual knowledge of any wrong-doing or any other nefarious behaviour. But, the math is pretty basic and that's what creates the risk: The primary impact is that for every dollar that the value of that 5% BIAL deal is overestimated, the mark for Fairfax India goes up by $10. The secondary impact is that the annual management fee (1.5%) to FFH goes up by $0.15 based on the $10 mark and, possibly the performance bonus (20% of everything over the hurdle) could go up by $2 based on the $10 mark. So if you have the same buyer for two deals being conducted more or less simultaneously, and if you could convince the buyer to over-value one asset and under-value the other, you could create value for yourself. There's an argument that the buyer would only care about the combined value of the two cheques that he must write and wouldn't much care about the specific amounts on each cheque, so maybe it wouldn't be so hard to twist his arm. A portion of the $1 overvaluation would be attributable to minority Fairfax India holders, but that would be swamped by the secondary impact. So yes, I am a little uncomfortable with the idea of there being two transactions made to the same buyer at roughly the same time. If it true that the buyers are the same for both transactions, I wonder why there hasn't been better disclosure. And once again, to my knowledge, there is no evidence that anything like this has actually occurred. SJ Possible but I highly doubt an investment group like FFH will burn their reputation in such a manner. I believe, given the state of the investments, Fairfax India would have truly EARNED their fees in the long run.

That might be true, but it is better to withhold an opinion until we understand who the buyer is and what sort of incentives may have come into play. I raised an eyebrow about this transaction because it seems strange that a 5% stake of a long-term asset would be sold. So, why did Fairfax sell it? Did they need to drop their stake to 49% to keep the nationalists at bay? Were they desperate for an infusion of $134m of cash? Did they find a partner with specific expertise that they wanted to bring aboard? Was there some other strategic motivation that was not articulated in the presser? One potential motivation that needs to be kept in the back of our head is that this minor transaction gives Fairfax the latitude to re-value that asset on its books. Fairfax India will book a gain of $500m based on a transaction of only $134m. And then what happens? Well, the Fairfax India's booked assets will suddenly be pumped up, which gives FFH a nice little boost to its annual management fee as well as the likelihood of a 20% performance fee in 2020. So, how much wealth will be extracted from Fairfax India unit holders from that little transaction? I'm guessing that the buyer's price for the 5% slice of that airport will be somewhat similar to the amount of money that FFH extracts from unit-holders. Maybe Prem will expand on this transaction in his annual letter and the annual report to provide more disclosure? For now, I am wary, but keeping an open mind. SJ https://www.vccircle.com/north-american-pension-fund-backs-fairfax-s-india-airport-investment-plan OMERS infrastrucure - strategic investor , this was probably done to get outside validation of big mark up in book value I’m not a subscriber so can’t read the article. How well-sourced is it? Only asking because Fairfax deliberately aren’t disclosing the buyer and I can’t imagine why they wouldn’t if it was OMERS. VCcircle has been pretty reliable in my experience so I would say there is decent chance of OMERS being the investor. OMERS has made other bets in infrastructure space in India and also is a part of consortium that acquired London airport. It also bid for brussels airport.

That might be true, but it is better to withhold an opinion until we understand who the buyer is and what sort of incentives may have come into play. I raised an eyebrow about this transaction because it seems strange that a 5% stake of a long-term asset would be sold. So, why did Fairfax sell it? Did they need to drop their stake to 49% to keep the nationalists at bay? Were they desperate for an infusion of $134m of cash? Did they find a partner with specific expertise that they wanted to bring aboard? Was there some other strategic motivation that was not articulated in the presser? One potential motivation that needs to be kept in the back of our head is that this minor transaction gives Fairfax the latitude to re-value that asset on its books. Fairfax India will book a gain of $500m based on a transaction of only $134m. And then what happens? Well, the Fairfax India's booked assets will suddenly be pumped up, which gives FFH a nice little boost to its annual management fee as well as the likelihood of a 20% performance fee in 2020. So, how much wealth will be extracted from Fairfax India unit holders from that little transaction? I'm guessing that the buyer's price for the 5% slice of that airport will be somewhat similar to the amount of money that FFH extracts from unit-holders. Maybe Prem will expand on this transaction in his annual letter and the annual report to provide more disclosure? For now, I am wary, but keeping an open mind. SJ https://www.vccircle.com/north-american-pension-fund-backs-fairfax-s-india-airport-investment-plan OMERS infrastrucure - strategic investor , this was probably done to get outside validation of big mark up in book value

https://taarifa.rw/analysis-what-does-the-flopped-equity-bank-atlas-mara-deal-mean/

if you compare BIAL with other publiclty traded airports around the world , it still seems quite a bit undervalued even more so with a second terminal coming up soon.

If you go thrugh the annual reports , the original thesis for ATMA was to turn around bank's fortunes by getting a new CEO . In less than 1.5 years it changed to selling almost all the assets( excluding BancABC) at a price( ~100 million ) which is probably way below their intrinsic value. This makes me question the ability of FAH management to find good bets in Africa in general. FAH management has to be more open about this sudden change in strategy regarding their biggest position.

https://www.canadianinsider.com/node/7?ticker=FIH

Significant insider buying in the last 3-4 months

Harsha Raghavan leaving https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/05/21/1509329/0/en/Fairfax-India-Executive-Announcement.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-09/new-york-s-jfk-booted-out-of-world-s-top-20-busiest-airports wrt to india and bial...delhi is at 16 with 63 million passengers growing at 14% yoy... also below is a recent conversation where watsa discusses fairfax India..interesting insights into role of Deepak Parekh as well. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XuBysRnGNc

http://forum.valuepickr.com/ https://www.screener.in/

thank you

http://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/1999/11/22/269071/index.htm

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/iifl-holdings-to-be-soon-divided-into-three/articleshow/62737383.cms IIFL is the biggest investment

what is stopping anyone from launching 100s of bitcoin like currencies..?