Uccmal

This is worth its weight in gold. Thanks much.

This is basically deflation caused by debt repayment. Exactly what caused deflation during the Great Depression except this is confined to only one sector. There is however one difference...shale drillers cannot keep drilling without acquiring more debt and decline rates are high for tight oil in the first year. So the dynamics are interesting. Shale oil producers have to keep pumping oil to repay debt but cannot increase production without raising more debt. Thus production will decline probably substantially after the first year and then level out. If oil prices go down many marginal shale drillers will stop producing. The real damage is being done quickly. No one is going to lend anyone any cash in this environment now, excepting the Suncors, the XOMs, and Chevrons of the world. If you didn't have the money to continue drilling two months ago, you aint getting it now. If you cant pay your drillers they will stop building your well and send their people home. Whatever situation a company had two months ago is what they are stuck with. Alot are going to go out of business fast, and no one is going to fill their shoes for years - lenders will be gun shy. That is what the Saudi's are counting on.

I kind of expect Minor changes to Obamacare in exchange for the pipeline and the end of the republican rant for the end of Obamacare or major watering down of it. Once the pipeline is in, the US will not be buying it. It's going to get exported and increase supply which may impact "certain market participants". Ya, speculation. But there are probably 10 explanation for todays oil prices and it probably is not one single answer but a blend made up of up to 10 of those reasons. But this keystone pipeline, where it ends and the probable export might be reason for those certain participants to worry. So if they can force oil prices below $80 ($50 is a bit insane) the economic feasibility behind the pipeline is less rational. If the Senate passes the pipeline and Obama vetos it I think oil prices will go back up for a while. If the pipeline is a go, I don't know what to think of my theory. Free oil for everyone for 6 months? Thoughts anyone? As theories go, that's a good one. I am still of the camp that no one knows, and no one is really in control. I think, ultimately that Jeremy Grantham is right.

ACDC - Money Talks Rush - Big Money BTO - Takin care of .business There is no discord: Many bands and artists are noted for their business skill: Kiss, Metallica, BTO, Paul McCartney, Rolling Stones; Grateful Dead; Howling Wolf.

I am trying to figure out the best way to invest in a deflation. I am not interested in commentary about the possibilities. Its just a thought exercise. Also: It has to be something a retail investor can buy. I cant buy swaps like Fairfax does. Obviously FFH is one answer. Stocks that have consistently paid and raise their dividends is another. Thoughts?

I couldn't find a relevant article by Stahl. If someone could link it. I dont see how indexing changes anything except killing fees for intermediaries. In market weighted indexes stocks still go up and down getting constantly re-weighted. On the other hand, indexing may exaggerate event effects of pricing. A stock, say JPM, has a price drop due to a trading incident. The indexes need to re-weight and sell JPM, further crushing the price. If anything, the indexes themselves will become more volatile, creating more opportunities for contrarians. The ETFs tracking indexes will lose some of their correlation if this becomes extreme.

Total, geometric, average? cagr edited.

As I expected: 1 yr, pretax: -2.9% 10 year after tax: 37% cagr 10 year after tax tossing best and worst year, after tax = 26% cagr Would have been better had I stayed away from Pennwest - slightly positive instead of slightly negative. Seaspan is down too, but that is only temporary.

The reason these explanations are hard to accept is because they are all Bs speculations. In reality, no one is in control, and no one knows exactly what is happening.

Margin account with IB is the easiest and cheapest way that i know of. Yes, easy to do with USD and foreign currency pair though have to be careful it doesn't go the other way with x40... Or use ETFs that track the currency as long or short and buy directly or via options. I am sitting at the opposite end right now. The drop in the Canadian currency has left me better off. So I should hedge now. 1 option: buy Cdn currency by moving money from my US account to CDn account Problem 1) costs over 2% Problem 2) My My Cdn margin account has a huge cash asset already; my Us margin account is in deficit; For me the interest costs on the US account are about 1.25% higher. Problem 3: If I did it now and the Cdn dollar continues to drop, then I lose both the conversion and further appreciation. - 90% of my holdings are US companies. From 2005 to last year I had a CAGR that was over 25% without hedging anything, while fighting the currency gain versus the US dollar. Even back in 2005/06 my FFh holdings were American. So. I look longingly at the opportunity and decide I am not in the business of hedging. I am a stock picker and the 10-20 % needs to be in my safety margin. Best thing is my Seaspan, BAc, WFc, and JPM holdings paying dividends into my tax free accounts - an extra 15% on conversion.

::) :P :-[ :-X nyah, nyah, na,na, nah... :'( Boy, i am sure showing my intillectewal prowes.

Maybe it's my faulty memory, but do I correctly recall you also dislike emoticons? I'm morally opposed to the use of emoticons. For example, whenever I try to post a negative string of numbers that ends in "8" using the format with parentheses, as in (0.7) for negative 7/10th, I get this annoying guy (0.8). Maybe trying to ban the use of emoticons is as quixotic as Munger wanting to ban derivatives, but here goes: "6. Only Giofranchi is allowed to use emoticons." (I think this is reasonable, since we cannot see Gio's hands and arms while he is making his emphatic points. Perhaps Sanjeev can find some emoticons that are based on hand/arm gestures, including the gesto dell'ombrello.) :-X Your memory is quite fine ;), lol, fyi Kraven hates emoticons...Dont know why :) ;) :D ;D >:( :( :o 8) ??? ::) :P :-[ :-\ :-*

Avoid blindly following "insert full name here" guru into any stocks.

Somehow, I missed all of the predictions about the price of oil plummeting. Oh wait, there weren't any....

I have always used the average rate for the year in terms of the exchange rate. Either way, you need to be consistent. If you are going to hold a lot of US securities or ADRs going forward I would go with the average. It is much simpler when doing your calculations than reverse engineering daily trades. 80% of my holdings since 08 have been US or ADRs. I figure it probably breaks even over time.

Seriously. When will a recession hit? Probably not for awhile in the general economy. Of course that doesn't preclude a market correction or even a brief bear, without an actual recession.

Size becomes an anchor to risk taking pretty rapidly. When a week of stock moves can move my portfolio size by my former salary, I take notice. When a crash in a single stock wipes out what I used to make in a year I start to think more about safety, reliable dividends and things. Roughly -3% pre tax return this year. Probably BE after tax. Will post my ten year results next week. I am guessing about 22% + after tax CAGR over ten years. Note: Mutual fund results are always pre tax. I got whipped at the end of this year by oil: PWT/PWE. Should recover quickly in the next few weeks, or not. If not a few weeks then certainly before my 2017 Leaps expire.

OMG, I got edited by the Parsad. Well, I got to keep him busy. He obviously doesn't have enough to do.... "F--ing Engineers. " Why would firing engineers be censored? Engineers get fired all the time. S-t happens. I just dont know anything any more.

OMG, I got edited by the Parsad. Well, I got to keep him busy. He obviously doesn't have enough to do....

- talking heads talk about soft landing ( my favourite) another: government says the bubble (whatever it might turn out to be) is contained.

I'm going to start talking about porn then.......... :P Hee, Hee: Ron Jeremy, Marilyn Chambers, Debbie Does Dallas, Miley Cyrus Twerking (oh so sickening).

Yeah, The most fun I ever had was working for small companies where you get to be Jack of All. The least fun was working for the government.

Something else to consider: I have never liked jobs. I am politically incorrect, dont like managers (unless it was me). Most bigger organizations put stupid pills in the drinking water. My long term goal from 31 was to be out of a job. I have now succeeded at that. Fat Pitch, your on this board and you contribute a fair amount, so what is your real ling term goal. Which choice gets you closer. A

F**k, I missed Festivus again this year. G'dam, piss me off. F--ing Engineers.

Of course!... But I guess Slash loves playing guitar nonetheless… at least most of the times! And probably loves it much more than me and you could ever come close to understand… That’s why I agree: such a passion definitely is a trait! Then also Slash is just a human being… and like any human being he is sometimes subject to boredom and laziness! ;) Gio Another aspect of where Anders is coming from is appreciation. Buffett is a master of recognizing this. He understands it so well because it is what he craves. The same would apply to most any musician, actor, manager, entrepreneur, or worker, after immediate living needs are met. Why else would a multimillionaire like Rick George (su, pwe) take on the COB at Pennwest. It sure isn't for the money, only. The guy ponied up 10 million of his own money to invest in PWE after he became board Chair. To invert: I recently left my day job. In this job I had the greatest freedom one could have and still get paid. But no one cared. The employer would persistently nickel and dime our expenses to death, berate everyone, install incompetent, non-thinking, acting managers. At the required reviews we were reviewed on our numbers only (non-financial), not on the skills we bought to the table. The "clientele" mostly hated us. Totally demoralizing. I am still recovering after 6 months away. I dont feel sorry for myself, as I planned the exit before I ever took the most recent job. Friends ask me why I am leaving behind a DB pension etc. They dont get it. Now, in addition to investing I am looking to do something where appreciation, and socializing are more integral to the job.