DavidVY

@Ericopoly- The problem is making a battery that can efficiently hold that large of a charge. Maybe its a possibility, but its still a fantasy at the point. I do agree with you about the CA tax rate impacting solar decision but those argument don't hold up as well outside of SoCal. SF is in CA, but solar will have much worse results there (laughs, because thats where all the solar tech is being dreamed up). SF is sunny, then cloudy, then rains for 15 mins, then get sunny again for an hour, then cloud rolls over. Desire > Reality Don't even get me started on Denver, NYC or Maine.

Careful with net-asset values for gold-mines. It could easily be a melting ice-cube. I'd be more concerned with production cost (cash-cost) per ounce. Even that # should be taken with a grain of salt.

AIG looks very good on paper. I haven't really dug deep into them though. My buddy at Marsh (MMC) said they are very solid and will likely return to normal. They still have a decently good name in the insurance business. As it is now, I would personally put it on the "too hard to evaluate-pass." I probably would have hopped unto them in the low 30s, but alas my mind was elsewhere Balance sheet is as black-box as it comes.

Bought USLM. - Way overcapitalized balance. - 5th largest player in this space - Family owned - Extra safe investment Cons - Illiquid - Lack of financial engineering will be a drag on ROE (MLM is using lots of debt) - Heavily tied to infastructure buildout for USA

Progressive is playing the premium game really well. Net premiums written to Surplus is expanding at 2.5-1 for new policies. They are using surplus to pay dividends + buy back stock (selling at 10-12 PE). Chubbs has combined underwriting in the mid 80s to low 90s (except one fluke year @102). I still think a profitable underwriter will make $$$ regardless. They have most of their book in bonds. Most insurance companies have mark-to-market securities so evaluating companies based on "book value" is complicated. I've really stuck to those two, as management is on point.

Thanks guys! I've been catching up now w/the google backdoor... : )

This is why I always have a small-medium sized margin account on my taxable brokerage stocks that I never plan on selling. (CA based here) You can deduct up to 3k of losses from your income. I do some short-term profit from trading that the margin interest will offset. This is also good if you have large unrealized gains (LEAPS) coming up. I give credit to Ericopoly for his more thorough dicussion of this topic

Not quite... there are still whole sectors that are reasonably priced - Insurance, Financials, and Financial Services - Old tech- Microsoft, google, qualcomm and cisco. All selling at reasonable multiples w/tons of cash on hand. - Food processors- Hello Avian bird flu! Poultry processors look reasonably priced - O+G/ Mining- Tons of stuff here (shares selling at 5x FCF). - Spin-off situations - Misunderstood companies (Zynga springs to mind) I see froth in Facebook, Tesla, utilities, cell-towers etc, but def no forward-looking accounting schemes like the telcos or dot-coms. Just my 2c.

Warren's crusade on taxes is intellectually dishonest - Rich people who pay capital gains taxes on dividends aren't pay 15%, they are paying corporate tax first then a 15% surcharge on top - 47% of USA pays no tax. Is that just that half the population takes w/out giving back? I've long stopped listening to what he says, and focused on what he does. He dumbs down his ideas constantly and provides a parable like setting for his ideas. His deal structuring abilities are genius, if you can look beyond the hype.

Bought Genworth today (GNW) -Selling at 35% book value - PMI insurance has stabilized - Life insurance is in the mix too. I think fair value is in the 60-75% BV range

Bought a few more things -Houston Wire and Cable (HWCC) : Distribution company of wire and cable. Good track record so far. Energy crisis has sent all these distribution companies down. 1/3 of its clientele is energy related, but realistically only upstream is going to be affected. Midstream and downstream are probably passing on lower energy costs to consumer and demand is staying relatively the same (or higher) -Amdocs (DOX) - Customer Experience Software. Stable company, high cash flows, zero debt. Handles accounting and billing for most major telcos worldwide. Niche segment w/low margin but high volume <--- Entry to barrier. Highly technical company (minus) but excellent capital allocators and growing slowly into new spaces

Have Republic. Phone is medicore, service drops from time to time. Its definite value @ 12 buxs/month.

Wow, that clears up a lot. I've been using gurufocus as a rough screen followed by 10-k to finely hone my thinking, because I do notice some errors (buybacks, debts not adding up, preferred missing, etc).

Give me an example of how your data is better...

Just bought Chubb. - Quality insurance company that carved out high-end niche. - Combined ratio of 88-92 most years - Conservative book (mostly short/medium term bonds). Hedge against interest rates rising as earnings will rise w/interest rates going up. - 2.28% dividend + 5% share buyback - P/E of 11.5

how is this different than gurufocus?

One of the homies @ the cigar bar, said his brokerage account will have a 2.5% fixed rate pledge loan against his brokerage assets. He's going to use it buy shares in private businesses yielding 10-11%, paying dividends of 5-6%. Its just another financial engineering (arbitrage spread) game.

Well I would said multiple expansion is a factor in valuation. PE Multiple will expand to reflect equity-premium to risk-free rate. BUT what I meant to say is that all these products will self-adjust to inflation. If Nestle's COG goes up, the retail price will go up (or package size will shrink). People don't really count the 5-10% increase in ice-cream prices. They still buy Drumsticks. I def. don't care much about price increase. It was 2 dollars for 4 pieces 3 years ago. Now its 2.50-3 dollars for 4 pieces. Voila Inflation Adjustment!

HA! I was just looking at this field after reading some global value fund's annual letter. The one he liked was Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.(NYSE:MLM). His argument was that it was a small player market (oligopoly) and that margins remain intact during downturns. It looked too expensive for me, but I added it to a potential watchlist

- Think in bankroll units/chips. So % like other said - Diversify into more positions as your wealth increases. - Don't put more into the market than you can lose. If it goes down 75% tomorrow, will your standard of living drastically change. Thats what all the big boys have said, and I agree with them.

For inflation adjusted equity-bonds (mature markets with stable respected management)- Nestle, Diageo, Hersheys and McCormick I would be fine with fair-value (PE of 20-25) and paying out 3-4% dividends. I get equity up-side with some cashflow. These business self-adjust to inflation. <--- This is just a bond substitute. With everybody else I want at least a 50%- 100% intelligent speculation upside.

Just bought a small chunk of PGR- Progressive- shares -PE of 12.5 - Excellent underwritten insurance company (consistent combined ratio of around 92-96) - Coast to coast P/C and auto coverage - Conservative investor that returns excess cash (this year was 2.5% dividend and ~2% of float stock buyback). - Payout ratio on dividend is at 25% <---- Def room to grow - Great marketing division (Flo!)

Ahhh Zynga is heavily misunderstood. Its more a reflection on mobile gaming (fast growing industry) and their upcoming pipeline. They have pivoted away from the old medium (facebook games) and towards the new medium which is mobile gaming. It just took some time to turn the ship around. They have 1) Command and Conquer game called Empire and Allies coming to mobile 2) Dawn of Titans (go look up the in-game trailers. Graphic is amazing!) 3) Book Value is right around $2 (Probably closer to $2.50 if you count that real estate in SF has skyrocketed). 4) Amortization of software/ depreciation accounting rules and goodwill write-downs will hide some of it true earnings 5) R&D for Games is big up-front investment. This likely accounts for their continued burn. I structured it as a $1 strike as a Zynga stub trade (BV around $2). Assuming revenues stabilize, cash-burn slows, and one of the game gets in the top 5 (which is highly likely) you are looking at a share price of between $6-8. I think Mark Pincus is a glory-hog and couldn't help come back when Zynga coming back. Its a definite good time to hop in before the games get out of beta and public sentiment changes against Zynga.

I've bought a lot of stuff recently. - MEOH -KN -Sold Kors shares, bought KORS LEAP Call options Jan 20,2017 (Strike 65) - SHERF (maybe S on TSE would be better as SHERF is thinly traded) - ZNGA LEAP CALL Options Jan 20,2017 (Deep-ITM /Stub Trade) Past 2 months added a few positions -CLD (best of the breed low-sulfur PRB surface coal miner) -MRC (PVF company)

Ezesoft's Tradar PMS should be more than adequate for your needs. Advent is the rolls royce of PMS providers, industry standard, used by all top Fund Admins, you will never outgrow this system but they are prohibitively expensive for the average start-up fund and we question how they justify some of their setup costs cheers ^^^What is the difference in prices between the two? How much roughly did you pay for each?