Read the Footnotes

In the US at least, think if anything the pandemic is likely to reverse the trend toward more people living downtown in smaller spaces as was the trend over the last decade. I imagine it was especially unpleasant to have moved downtown from a large suburban home in order to spend your retired years enjoy the pleasures of an urban renaissance with it's walk-able streets and crowded cafes. I am not saying urban life will be dead, but the relative valuation gap probably just got reduced significantly if only in the short run. And some specific development styles such as the ones with very little personal space in favor of more common spaces, may not be desirable at all for some time and may ultimately be renovated. I have been amazed at the young people who loved city life who face very little health risk from COVID-19 who don't want to return to the cities after this over.

There are many other unusual reasons that the numbers are low in addition to the normal issues with unemployment statistics. Another pandemic specific issue is the shear number of people who are on temporary furlough or layoff that are still receiving some sort of compensation and are therefore ineligible for benefits, yet. This is probably the best answer I am still not sure I think the numbers are the least bit representative and Trump has been boasting as if we should be tired of winning at this point. Which makes me think that some portion of the populace or the market are not aware of footnotes and reporting issues, but are just getting a very positive seeming soundbite. The strong form efficient market hypothesis assumes information is assimilated immediately, I'm guessing that's wrong in this case.

https://www.wired.com/story/covid-19-cases-were-already-rising-before-the-george-floyd-protests/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/05/may-2020-jobs-report-misclassification-error/?tid=pm_pop&itid=pm_pop Recent unemployment stats understate unemployment by 3 percentage points due to "misclassification error". Should have been 16.3% instead of 13.3%. 16.3% probably still does not capture the magnitude of the issue for various reasons related to classifications, definitions, etc. What do anticipate for market impact from this revelation? This is an understatement of 18%.

I think at this point the majority of stock market investors and business people would like anyone other than Trump and that what they might like the most is someone who just goes in their basement and leaves them and the markets alone. Trump may talk about small government, but he is consistently meddling in markets for his own benefit. In the following post I tried to argue that it is a Trump concocted myth that the Market went up because he won. I also have tried to argue that the market will likely appreciate his loss. As he continues to melt down, that just becomes more and more likely. Biden is modeling the behavior that the market wants. Stay in the basement. Plus the more Biden can win from Trump without needing the wacky left, the more he can pursue a centrist agenda. As more Republicans abandon Trump, that possibility becomes more likely that we get a version of Biden that stays in his basement, is free to pursue a relatively centrist agenda and focuses on reuniting and calming the nation. https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/politics/how-much-will-the-stock-market-fall-if-elizabeth-wins/msg383763/#msg383763

There was at one point a belief that the sickest were shedding the most virus, but now there have been study results indicating that viral shedding is highest when pre-symptomatic, if that is true, you may be a little too optimistic Another issue is that shouting has been estimated to shed 1000x as much virus as simply breathing. Think of the indoor choir practice example that is often cited. I saw many examples of a someone without a face covering screaming right in someone else face from less than three feet.. I hope they weren't infected because that's got to be extremely high risk.

i have a question (not so medical) for you: Given the next hypothetical case, out of the possibilities, which would you put on the first line of the death certificate? Listed randomly: -fentanyl intoxication and recent methamphetamine use -partially blocked coronary arteries -COVID+ -partial obliteration of trachea due to an extrinsic knee cap Personally, i would put decaying culture as the main cause of death and perhaps that would trigger a call from a health authority but it would also go a long way in explaining the current state of affairs. Sadly, this is a very good question. I think it's a good assumption that members of this board are above average intelligence, reasonably well educated successful people with many advantages in life. Many members of this board have had difficulty understanding an appropriate response to the Pandemic. Ill informed message board and social media participants, disinformation, and politicians behaving like psychopaths have made communication of good information more difficult. If we have had clueless people on this board, image how clueless the least among us must be. Imagine how dangerous the interactions of the least among us with police must be right now. The mentally ill and people experiencing drug induced psychosis quickly come to mind. It is also sad to see almost no police using masks, face shields or gloves. Of course, they could be doing that so they don't look like the secret police, which I really appreciate, but wearing masks is a sign to everyone in the community that these are not normal times. A reminder that we could all benefit from. It's much better to just wear a mask than have to return to our homes.

I am sadly disappointed. If Coronavirus is as bad as we think it may be, the protesting and even more likely the rioting and looting may lead to many deaths, short-term illness, long-term health effects, and harm to the economy. I am also very disappointed to see so many police officers not taking adequate precautions. I also believe that the images on TV and elsewhere of people not taking social distancing, face coverings or the virus seriously seem to be causing a more relaxed attitude in the past week or so from what I have seen personally. Most of the images in the media these days whether of the President or of protestors, looters and rioters are of people who are not modeling good behavior for the public. Also, there is some chance that the accusations of murder are a rush to judgment. If we see enormous health, social and economic costs and the officers are not as guilty as people presume them to be, then it would truly be a national tragedy in my opinion. I have seen reports that George Floyd had Fentanyl, Methamphetamines, alcohol, and Coronavirus in his system. Doctors have been flummoxed by the Coronavirus, so how can we expect cops to know how to deal with it appropriately? How many of them are aware that a suspect with COVID-19 might show psychotic behavior or might seem fine but have a dangerously low oxygen levels? I think we have all learned on this board that some medical professionals have been completely clueless and we have learned their shortcomings. I am sure that in the first three months that patients did not receive good care the way they might three months from now. Why would we expect the situation to be any better with policing?

In 2001/2002, it was pretty easy to see that the deflation of the stock bubble was just shifting in to a real estate bubble fueled by the monetary stimulus. After 9-11 there was an additional impulse to "nest" at home which added to the momentum already in place. Although I think the current market conditions are likely to be short lived, people predicting a crash are likely not giving enough credit to the current monetary stimulus, plus the potential for additional stimulus. Plus it seems reasonable that people will place a premium on personal space in the future. That combined with the fact that home and landscaping improvements have been two areas that persisted in many places during the stay at home period may lead to a change in consumer preferences that may persist for several years at least.

Nixon was the outsider promising change. Trump is more akin to Johnson. Like Johnson, Trump owns these problems no matter how much he may try to blame them on others.

If you poke around Twitter, the sources indicate that buyers interest has recovered and inventory has tightened. The record low mortgage rates surely help and I think mortgage rates will likely go even lower because the margins to treasuries are fairly high right now. There seems to be a temporary supply/demand imbalance in some areas with little depth to the market and more motivated buyers than sellers. That dynamic will likely be short-lived.

I haven't looked at CNX for a couple of years and there has been a bit of a shuffling of the deck, but at the time they were thought of as being some of the smartest guys around. You definitely didn't want to be on the other side of a deal though. Basically everyone who engaged in M&A with them at the time found out that they were the patsy. Thought I haven't looked at them recently, wouldn't be surprised if an investor would need to be very careful and question management's alignment in this case.

Before it was known as "Economics" the field was known as "Political Economy" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_economy In fact, it was likely known as Political Economy for longer than it was known as Economics. I would accept that a discussion of economics is likely a waste of time, especially a discussion of Macro Economics. On the other hand, if you think discussing economics is of value, then you should recognize that the two can be very difficult to separate. Plus there is the rare occasion upon which you can make a dollar based on a political insight. Hopefully we can all try to do more than reinforce our own beliefs, or as Munger puts it . . . pound in our own stupidity.

I think the level of discourse including in the Politics board has been much higher for the past three days and that the sloppy thinking is actually much better. I am also happy to see that the Political discussion has moved back in to the Politics section. I think you are right that lazy thinking in one area can lead to lazy thinking in another area. I actually think it's worse than that though, I think what we have seen is a good bit of emotional garbage without even the attempt of creating posts that are of any use to anyone else. That sort of behavior can really drive out the good contributors whereas a thoughtful and respectful discussion actually draws people in to the discussion. I think the past couple of days we have since a realization of what I was saying when several times I have posted that it's not about what CoB&F is, but what it could be. We owe thanks to Sanjeev for the relatively unrecognized job of keeping the standards as high as they are.

Cherzeca, I wanted to complement you on this post. I think it is rare to see an apology and rare to see someone making an honest assessment of their behavior. Charlie Munger also says we should rub our own noses in it, try to be rational and try to stick to our circle of competence. You seem to be displaying in this post a lot of the emotional skills and practices necessary to be a rational actor and to become a better investor. I think that a lot of people were grieving for the what they lost from SARS-NCoV-2 and some still are. Anger and denial frequently go along with grief. I mention this in case it helps us to show a little more patience and compassion either online or in the real world.

I have to say I think the board has been excellent for the past day or two. There have been some very interesting discussions of businesses and invest-able ideas. Even some of the discussions in the Politics section have been respectful and illuminating. I also appreciate Longhaul's contributions on the Psychology of Misjudgment. It's great to see someone going out of their way to create worthwhile content. https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/munger-and-psychology-of-misjudgement-cobf-class-idea/ https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/psychology-of-misjudgment-cobf-class-2-likingloving-tendency/

That’s going to show China. Soon they will be running the outfit. The US saves $550M or roughly $1.3 per head. Nature abhors a vacuum. That's what we learned the last time we tried isolationism. It doesn't seem to be going very well this time either. Isolation doesn’t real work with pandemics. It is one thing where an ounce of prevention saves you a pound of cure quite literally. The WHO and China needs to be held accountable and China’s influence on this organization needs to be diminished, such that we can minimize the risk of a repeat. The WHO has done great work and helped contain Ebola and SARS and perhaps other diseases. Saving $550M while we are spending 5 Trillion right now to help cope with the existing situation makes no sense if you think about risk rewards ratios. I meant isolationism as a failed political theory that Trump has pursued more broadly throughout his presidency. Withdrawing from international politics does not make international politics go away, it just means that you no longer have a seat at the table. Each time Trump has gotten his feelings hurt and taken his toys and gone home, China or Russia has filled the void created by the USA's absence. This situation with the WHO will likely lead to a strengthening of Chinese leadership and a lessening of US leadership. Goodwill for the USA's CDC (and other medical branches) that was built up over decades has been destroyed very rapidly and would be very expensive to try to replicate from scratch. The withdrawal from the Trans Pacific Partnership is an interesting analogue since many believe the TPP would have increased US influence and decreased the influence of China. For some reason, Trump wanted to walk away from that too. He sure does seem to enjoy Chinese visitors at Mara Lago. Maybe we will find out the truth about that situation some day.

It's interesting that within a couple of days there are basically two different Craigslist style advertisements on CoB&F right now from long term members. That seems unusual. Is it a sign of the times? https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/terms-of-use/terms-of-use/

That’s going to show China. Soon they will be running the outfit. The US saves $550M or roughly $1.3 per head. Nature abhors a vacuum. That's what we learned the last time we tried isolationism. It doesn't seem to be going very well this time either.

Thanks. With as few miles as I'm driving and being on the hook for about thirty quarts of expensive synthetic you might save me a few bucks this year. I am guessing those who are invested in some of the lubrication products companies might not be as happy with this news getting out.

That's actually reassuring. After posting on a public forum that Trump is secretly getting an effective prophylactic treatment that is not available to the rest of us I closed my curtains, turned off the lights and started waiting for the CIA/NSA/Deep State blacked out vans to park in front of my house. Or in the case of the Trump administration I guess I should be worried about getting a visit from a mob lawyer from Queens.

Sounds like Trump considers himself eligible for the study and participates voluntary. Trump probably isn't even really taking Hydroxychloroquine. He and others in the chain of command and military have probably been secretly receiving prophylactic treatments of plasma for months. It's a great explanation for why he has been his normal self and has shown no signs of his supposedly legendary Germaphobia. If you've forgotten, supposedly he couldn't have stumpfed the Russian prostitutes at the pee palace because he's so Germaphobic it would have been out of character. I'm left to conclude that either there are pee tapes out there or he's been getting convalescent plasma for months. This is also a good explanation for why we did those repatriation flights to military bases and got people to volunteer for military-led "research". Also, not a bad explanation why we allowed for cruise ships to become Petri dishes. You've got to get the plasma from somewhere and you probably want to get it early and from a verifiable source. Importation from Wuhan is a great technique for that.

If it wasn't clear, I was joking and making fun of VC in both my posts. Anyone who bothered to follow the link should have figured that out. I stopped watching when I heard Venn diagram. It gets worse and more ridiculous than Venn diagrams, but what else would you expect from a video by Sarah Cooper, the same woman who brought us these gems:

If it wasn't clear, I was joking and making fun of VC in both my posts. Anyone who bothered to follow the link should have figured that out.

So they lose 8 dollars a pizza, or about 25%. The question is, will this scale?