rb

Q: How much in tariffs would he have to add to "foreign oil" if U.S. already "~energy independent producer"? Just close off foreign imports altogether? Would it matter though as U.S. demand for oil has also cratered? Will WTI trade at a wide premium to Brent and will refiners get hosed? Or will refiners pass those costs to Americans who, though financially struggling, will willingly buy $3-4/gallon gasoline to fund the welfare for the oil industry so it helps DJT's reelection bid? Wow, you guys keep coming up with ways to totally destroy the US-Canada relationship eh? Well first off, the US is not energy independent. It normally uses up about 20 mbpd and lately production was around 13 mbpd. Around this time though 13 mbpd should probably be enough though. But this stuff is not the same and refineries are highly geared to the grades of oil they receive. PADD 2 is highly dependent on Canadian crude. So if you shut down imports you probably get a glut in PADD 3 and have a serious shortage of product in PADD 2. Well done. Now the price skyrockets and you have gasoline shortages in the mid west. There will be other distortions but that is probably the biggest. Economically the import ban would work like a tariff. Basically the consumers subsidizing the oil companies by paying more for product. WTI will trade at a serious premium to Brent of course. The's probably gonna be derivative bombs that go off on balance sheets, though who knows where. Socially a tariff or import ban is gonna be a shit show also. Picture Bernie sanders on coke in front of every microphone he can find looking like he's gonna pop a vein. Canada is probably gonna go ahead with a national energy program. Trudeau the second finishes what daddy couldn't. Might even join OPEC . OPEC membership is surely to increase for that matter as producers are gonna look to better coordinate in case of events like these. None of it is good really.

You forget about their biggest competitor - MiTek. In the best of time it's a fierce competitor. But it also has a very rich sugar daddy which can supply infinite capital, don't need to worry about financing. Can do any bolt on deal they want. Can acquire any weaker competitor at cheap prices to bolster their position.

To be fair, it’s not just the US, 68 countries have banned exports of PPE.. https://globalnews.ca/news/6769162/canada-medical-supplies-coronavirus/ Germany blocks truck full of protective masks headed for Switzerland https://www.thelocal.com/20200309/germany-blocks-protective-masks-headed-for-switzerland More important question is not whether US will provide masks but why a so-called advanced nation like Canada cannot even produce enough masks for its own people.. What I was getting at is it's not that Canada can't produce. It's that Canada doesn't produce. It mostly buys from 3M. An N95 respirator while looking simple is actually a fairly sophisticated product. So it takes time to setup an operation and a supply chain to mass produce them. You can't just flip a switch. But Canada can produce them, and so can Germany, and France, and the UK, and Switzerland, and Austria, and Sweden, and etc. They all have the technology and engineering capacity to do it. So now once the decide to do it local (for a bit more money), cause you've decided to fuck with their supply, do you think that they'll task a foreign controlled company like 3M to do it for them? Or do you think they'll have one of their local companies do it? It'll probably cost a little bit more money since the local companies are not as good at it as 3M is, but now they've already committed to spending more on masks. Expand this thinking to other medical products. A lot of them come from American companies. They're not low margin products either. So lots of shareholder value destroyed there.

thanks. It looks like a subscription is required? Yea. But it's like $7 a month and it's worth every penny. You get financials for every company on the face of the earth and other data as well. I really like it a lot.

Yea. But shouldn't those people have some dough to tide them over though this? Plus calling 200k a year households middle class is quite a stretch. No matter the location. Isn't NYC median household income something like 60k?

Point me to any post where I've called China an ally.

In the bill it's right away. But in reality they're saying that it's gonna be a couple of weeks until you get your cheque. Then there's also the fact that the states can't process the volume of applications fast enough. So maybe add another week or two depending on the state.

TWS

These guys can't even agree to hold a meeting. I'm sure they'll agree to a 15 million barrel cut.

Now I KNOW you are a really smart guy Rb. You really want to give Xi and China a PASS on this one? Seriously. You KNOW Xi knew exactly what was happening. Did he stop sending THOUSANDS of people into Toronto, Vancouver, etc? Maybe next to WWII and WWI - this is one of the greatest disasters of the last 100 years - and you are going to defend these guys. I KNOW you are smart Rb - but are you for real?? Yeah, I'm for real. I'm no fan of China either. But your point is ridiculous. Yea China fucked up their initial response. But if I were to go down your rabbit hole. So did the US and they knew more. They've also sent thousands of people all over Canada. So did other countries: Italy, Germany, Switzerland, etc. I'm sure Canada also sent human Coronavirus care packages via airline airfreight to a bunch of countries as well. You just wanna focus on your obsession and ignored the whose facts and substance piece of my post.

Yea, not Corona related. Just deadbeat company.

While you are there - make sure you thank President Xi for the destruction they bequeathed to your beloved Canada. After all, what are your "true friends" for? Dude, are you for real? Do you think Xi packaged doses of the corona virus and FedExed them to Canada? Trump PERSONALLY said Fuck Canada. The speed at which your president is destroying goodwill and profits of american companies is astounding. Look at my previous post. That Ontario Premier that's talking about excluding American companies out of medical supply chains is not some Liberal yuppie. He's a Conservative loud mouth mini-Trump, who previously wouldn't miss an opportunity to suck up to the Americans and kiss Trump's ass. Now think what other leaders with different predilections are thinking/planning/doing?

I think Trump really screwed 3M and a whole bunch of American companies with that dumb stunt of his on the masks. 3M CEO: Ontario Premier: Why do I get the feeling that 3M mask market share is about to take a dive in Canada through no fault of their own? How much you want to bet that this same conversation is happening in many other industrialized countries around the world? How much do you want to be the conversations aren't just about 3M masks but encompass a whole range of products made by American companies?

All that tells you is that the White House can't model worth of shit.

Invariably there will be some of that. But I don't think it matters too much. 1. When open there won't be the old economic capacity. So some of these people should be on umemployment. Having some money is good. Also these measures are temporary and they taper off. 2. I don't think people on this board understand that demographic well. Take clutch's example. Well in Ontario the minimum wage is about 2,300 per month. So the 2,000 EI is still below minimum wage. So if I would work for minimum wage I would say sure. Why would I work for $300 bucks a month (pre-tax). May as well chill. But for these people $300 a month actually matters. So yea, I think a lot of them will go to work for 300 a month. 3. $2000 a month really sucks for a lot of places in Ontario. Anecdotally I know someone who doesn't make a lot of money and has a sizeable investment portfolio. She got laid off due to COVID and went on EI. What's she doing right now? Applying for jobs. Why? Because she wants to get in front of the other ppl that will apply for jobs.

So Russia is saying they'll maybe kida/sorta cut 10% of their production with a deal blah, blah, blah. Global production is what? Around 80 million bpd. To get a 10 mbpd cut that would mean a 12% production cut everywhere. How likely do you think that is?

Guys, why does it matter if a country is a failed state or not? Why would you block humanitarian aid during a pandemic? Meanwhile it looks like the US is out there spiking other countries' orders as well. France and Germany are not impressed to say the least. https://globalnews.ca/news/6775423/coroanvirus-global-face-mask-competition/ https://www.dw.com/en/us-accused-of-seizing-face-mask-shipments-bound-for-europe-canada/a-53010923

When facts change, You have got to change your opinion. These airlines are are likely zeros. They don’t last longer than few month without meaningful revenues and will go into prepackaged bankruptcy before thy run out of cash. By fall, they are done, imo. You're right. It's a pretty good value trade. The companies are bankrupt so why not take the money? At $20 a share Delta is worth about as much as it was around 2013-2014 and it was actually flying back then. What changed since then? I don't see why these are not all zeros. Does the US taxpayer owe airline shareholders a duty of care, or airline bondholders for that matter? These companies have been bankrupt before and everybody lived. No reason why it can't happen again.

Yea. Logistics is hard. Who knew? ::) Wouldn't it be nice if the US actually had a government? Like people who knew what they were doing? These guys are managing a national emergency, the only way they know how. Tweets, changing websites, checking their ratings. Shit show. You have the Pats flying masks from China on their team's 767. Oh and they can't bring as many as they're available cause the plane can't carry it. Wouldn't it be nice if the US had some sort of organization who's job it was to carry shit from one place to another. Something that may resemble this for example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Mobility_Command

It's not a 13-f it's a 4. The trades were April 1st and 2nd. They're selling now.

They're hauling ass on Delta too. No joke! Edit: Maybe Buffett found that 1-800 number from years ago.

Pace yourself young padawan. The road is long.

Kids don't get to vote.

See how I know you're from Texas? When oil prices were high people had to pay the oil companies because it's a global market and the price is set globally. Now when oil prices are low, people still have to pay the oil companies, only this time they do it "for their country". Not only are people not gonna go for it. You're gonna be able to hear the laughter from space. It will be so loud it will defy the laws of physics.

It's not just demand. But the type of demand. So say you shift demand from restaurants to groceries. People still eat roughly the same amount of food. But they buy it in different ways. The packaging is very different. So you may be able to produce the food but you can't fill grocery stores because you can't package it. All sort of stuff like this probably happening everywhere in operations today.