rb

Yes, I see it now: intravenous bleach infusion, bombardment with UV rays, gamma rays, etc etc and patients will be straight up cured! And his apologists were out defending hydroxychloroquine because this guy was behind it... We now proudly celebrate ignorance in our culture--and you see the manifestation here on this forum and in the population at large. The consequences of said ignorance unfortunately does not merely fall on the ignorant, but spreads to the wider population via collateral damage. Oh well. I read this and and first i thought that cwericb and dalas were having a bit of fun. ...But then I saw the video. What.... the fuck?!

Okay, this is the last time I will correct you for a few weeks. The experts prediction of both mild/asymptomatic cases and IFR are accurate. Maybe it is your lack of expertise that is the issue (for example not knowing the difference between IFR and CFR)? The original model presented by the White House estimated 1.5M-2.2M deaths, if there was no mitigation. Guess how many deaths there would be assuming your 0.67% "mortality rate" and an attack rate of 70% (rough estimate of infection rate needed for herd immunity)? 328M * 0.7 * .0067 = 1.5M Seems pretty accurate to me. Maybe the experts know more about this pandemic than Cerzeca? Something doesn't seem right though, so help me understand. The same White House model projected that 100,000 and 240,000 would die with the mitigation measures in place. Are they speculating that there will be a vaccine available before the US reaches the attack rate? Another possible explanation -- If you flatten the curve, you might be able to avoid some deaths due to the healthcare system overflow, but I expect that the area under the curve would still be similar (compared to when you have a spike). So are they saying that they would save an order of magnitude of lives by keeping the health care system below the threshold? Part of my problem with these projections is that there is no transparency or explanation whatsoever... The reason for the discrepancy is that in the white house models and what we see is that in those models they assumed a 50% compliance with the shelter in place/whatever you may call them orders. What was observed is that the compliance rate is around 90%. So big miss on the assumption there. You basically have the numbers coming below the model because the quarantine is working way better because the people are behaving much, much better than assumed. They are taking it more seriously than the government assumed and that is making the quarantine much more effective.

Well the fed may buy shit CLOs at par. But that helps the last moron that bought that paper. Insert X hedge fund/trading desk here. But the PEs are shit out of luck. They need to issue new LLs and nobody is buying those. Not even the Fed. oops.

I'll answer the why not issue debt. It's because prefs are equity and not debt. They're issuing prefs at 9.5 because of 2 things. 1. Nobody will lend them money. 2. They're at serious risk of breaching their covenants on their existing debt. While I've invested in prefs in the past and has been very profitable for me I would not touch this deal. You also have to keep in mind that CAKE stopped paying rent. So they're really also issuing debt. Super-senior debt, way ahead of you.

PE shops right now are holding the biggest bag of crap out there outside of a shale E&P portfolio. They paid high multiples, used a ton of leverage, and the CLO market doesn't have a pulse. But they're ok. Suuuurrreee.

It is really amazing to me. When all this anti-intellectualism, anti-expertise started with Trump there were questions posed like if you have the guy who operates on you to be a doctor? That was purely theoretical back then and didn't need to be addressed. Now fast forward to 2020 when you have a situation where it's not theoretical anymore. You actually need the doctors. Turns out that no, they still don't want the doctors. This is how you end up with a situation where they put a dog breeder in charge of the COVID task force. Unbelievable! But it's ok... because he's a small business guy. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-hhschief-speci/special-report-hhs-chief-azar-had-aide-former-dog-breeder-steer-pandemic-task-force-idUSKCN2243CE As an aside, what's up with the Republicans putting animal people in charge of disaster? Wasn't the guy who fucked up Katrina a horse guy or something like that?

Now we're talking state bankruptcies. That's surely gonna work out well for the economy. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-states/mcconnell-says-he-favors-state-bankruptcy-over-more-federal-aid-idUSKCN2242U7

Whenever we get to a market peak we generally also get the "The old man's gone senile and lost it" meme. It happened in 1999, it happened in 2006, and it seems like it's starting to happen again now. As for the "All/most the value comes from tech innovation" idea let take a look down memory lane (figures approximate not exact): Since 1990 to today Berkshire smokes the Nasdaq 1,300% to 500%. Since 2000 to today Berkshire wins against Nasdaq again 400% to 100% Since 2010 to today Nasdaq wins 270% to 180%. And they were tied at the end at 2018, with all the Nasdaq outperformance happening in the past year or so. Sure sounds like someone who's lost it and overwhelmed by the new world in the new century.

That's par for the course of what you get out of doctor Trump. How many doctors prescribed hydroxychloroquine just cause they were afraid they would get sued by trumpers if they didn't because the dude shot his mouth?

So what are they saying? That the Japanese banks are the bag holders for US shale?

LOOOL! R Senator from ND on Bloomberg right now: "The current situation in the oil markets is mainly due to the super price war between Russa and KSA." "Our companies are very good, very responsible companies". https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W https://tradingeconomics.com/saudi-arabia/crude-oil-production

If USO liquidates, the June may go negative as well. USO is over 20% of June open interest. That's dumb money from Robinhood clients. There's no one to take their place.

Buying a lot more Friday $1s June under $12.....holy shit USO NAV is 2.25.....I think they could hit 0 I actually think it's technically possible for USO to go negative if the June contract goes negative. This might be the craziest trade of my life.... Yep, i think i'll buy some USO puts just to be able to say that I did it.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1252591306028785667 WTI is so fucked!

This seems to be a point lost on many investors - especially younger investors - who have been riding a decade-long bull market. Downward price action does not make something "cheaper." Downward price action only makes something cheaper if the fundamentals persist or improve. And as you note, the fundamentals are getting worse with each passing day. What happens when more and more companies start including "going concern" warnings in their public filings? But but but...stocks look cheap on a forward P/E basis when I set 2021 EPS = 2019 EPS... After an incredibly agonizing 2 weeks, the bear market clearly ended on March 24, 2020. Plus, the Fed said the recession is cancelled. What a trying time it was for all of us. Glad I got to experience a full blown recession in my life--and one of the worst on record: the Great Recession of March 2020. Another notch in my belt! If Warren didn't buy, it must be because he's senile and outmoded! Bring one of those hedge fund managers who crushed the last 10 years in...you know that guy. What's his name? I'm gonna have these made. I have a feeling the term will become popular really soon. Alternative translation: EBITDAC Earnings = We have no earnings.

This may be a really dumb question but if someone out there has a liquidity problem, how can they pay someone else to take the contract off them? I can understand how a liquidity crunch would drive a firesale at a low positive price. I can't understand how it would drive a negative price. Surely if you're f***ed for cash and the price goes negative you just go bust and stop worrying about the fact that you can't accept delivery? This is a real market for physical delivery, so if you own the contract you MUST take delivery or you are bankrupt, and your broker will have to handle it for you. Oil is not like steel or copper or something else you can just take delivery of and drop off at a yard somewhere. You can't dump it out on land or the ocean, you need to pay someone for storage, and that's what drives the negative prices, as those storage costs are non-trivial, and during a shortage like the present, there is simply nowhere to put the oil that must be delivered. I know. But that doesn’t explain how (in SD’s scenario) a player that has no cash (liquidity crisis) can *pay* someone to take the contract. That’s what I’m asking. I think he's talking about market liquidity i.e. there are no buyers but the idiot long still has money. There could also be some of this: This poster is not as dumb he thinks. He was smart enough to ask the question. I'm sure there were other dumber guys that didn't, their broker seized their contracts and dumped them.

Trump is getting killed on how he has managed the virus and it is getting worse. So what does he do? He manufactures a new ‘issue’ that the news media will shift their focus to. The messier the better. Smart, smart man! However, this is not good for the US. Among other things, immigration brings in needed skills. It also provides a nice boost to GDP as all those immigrants provide a nice economic boost (need to eat and sleep somewhere). Yes this is not good. I am very worried about where this is going. Is anybody thinking about what happens with vegetables from California, Georgia and all these places? Or we're all just gonna have to shift to eating corn?

Have a look at the spot market. Holy shit! It looks like an oilman's rendition of the shining.

https://www.robintrack.net/ Their popularity change is like a list of what not to buy. Who are these people?

Agree, negative pricing changes the game: the downside becomes potentially limitless. Almost feels like CME made the decision on the fly. And I wouldn't be surprised if we hear of a few trading firms going under in the days to come because of what happened today. I think that the open interest in the May was enough to make any firm go under. Mad props to the CME for letting markets be markets. Though I kinda picture some guy over there just going like Fuck It! What's the worst that can happen. In a separate thought, is anyone wondering how much of shit energy "formerly investment grade" bonds did the Fed buy? What happens when those things default? Does the Fed become an oil field operator? Is this how the US gets a national oil company? With the shittiest assets in the business to boot??

It'll be very interesting to see if the shippers get into the trade. They were probably not ready this go around cause it was so unexpected. But if I have a VLCC around and I buy oil at -20 and sell one month forward at 20 that can hugely profitable. Why just settle for paltry rents? Btw, for shits and giggles the Texas RR commission is having another big meeting tomorrow. I bet it's gonna be EPIC. Usually these things are like the most boring thing on the planet. But could be fun seeing some Texas oilmen soil themselves tomorrow.

This is big, but not quite what you say. Futures further out (June and July, I think) were still in the 20s last I saw. This is a storage issue for this month's contract because we're close to date when you have to get delivery. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcollins/2020/04/20/the-us-oil-etf-uso-is-the-culprit-behind-oils-massive-plunge/?subId3=xid:fr1587412446979iif#141008c724e8 It matters, but Liberty is right. This is small potatoes--most oil futures for May were already closed. This just screws some people with open long contracts who cannot take physical delivery. That said, I don't see why this doesn't happen again when June expires...nothing about the massive oversupply has been fixed, and storage continues to fill. Well Liberty is not exactly right. USO had nothing to do with it. Guy in his link knows not what he is talking about. USO was all in the June contract already. See link below. http://www.uscfinvestments.com/holdings/uso So yea you have a problem with delivery. But when the thing went to minus 10. Why didn't some trader for a refinery go "Fuck it! at -10 I'll take some extra barrels and clear the market." It's because NOBODY wants those barrels. If it's a storage problem, do you think that there will be more storage or less storage available 30 days from now? If you have the same storage problem for June delivery and that contract will go negative then what is the fair value of that contract today? Normally E&P close and roll their contracts over because there hasn't been any problem with delivery. Now if I'm an E&P guy with overproduction and I just saw spot go down to -35 cause nobody is taking delivery and I'm looking at the $20 june contract don't I just sell my production forward and force delivery on whatever fool was dumb enough to buy the contract?

Doesn't Berkshire own like a shitload of tank cars?

Let's make this happen: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/212-214-W-Oak-St-Cushing-OK-74023/2084509578_zpid/ Why buy? You can get an AirBnB on the cheap. Large pool - required amenity.

Holy SHIT!