Travis Wiedower

Not surprised founders do better than non-founders, but 3x is huge! One of the big factors in my opinion (which the article alludes to) is that founders often invested their own money to start the company. There's a big difference between that and hired CEOs who almost always are given options and never invest any personal money. Many founders also love their business as if it's their child. A hired CEO will almost never care as much as a founder.

I was skeptical listening to this bc most energy analysts are superficial and full of shit. But this was the best analysis I have heard on the issue so far. Thanks for the link! +1. Really enjoyed that podcast.

I find investor presentations (which are often solely found on the IR page) helpful, especially as an overview when first looking at a company. I rarely judge a company for its website but it has happened.

It's possible I mis-use it, but this is exactly how I use the term cloning. And cloning (/coat-tailing) is a perfectly viable way to discover stocks. I imagine damn near every manager does it to some extent.

My advice would be for him to keep letting his high income compound at 8% per year for doing absolutely nothing. If he really wants to be more active, take 10-20% and invest in some individual stocks. Emphasize to him that he's probably decreasing his ROI in this scenario though. Also, if a great private investment comes around he can simply cash out some of his index funds and go invest. No reason to have xx% sitting around in cash as a "potential private investment pile."

What do you want to do longer term?

I don't know about "most everyone," but it's common to hear that increasing interest rates (and thus, mortgage rates) results in decreasing new home sales. It makes sense that a more expensive home loan would lead to fewer home sales, but that's not what the data shows. Running a regression on new home sales and 30-year fixed mortgage rates since 1971 shows the two are more likely to be slightly positively correlated (though far from statistically significant). This makes sense as well: while rising rates makes purchasing a home more expense, the Fed is normally increasing rates when the economy is doing well, unemployment is low, salaries are increasing, etc. Interest (and mortgage) rate increases are thus a sign of good economic times which results in more home sales. Attached is a chart of the two.

Good post merkhet. Thanks to some psychology-related books I've read in the past year my compassion for strangers has been increasing. It's important to remember that those people led very different lives than you and if you were in their situation you may have done the same thing. If I was born into a poor family with an abusive dad and crappy mom who sent me to a shitty school in the ghetto I sure as hell wouldn't have turned out how I am today. It's also extremely difficult to imagine having a low IQ, but a lot of those people simply can't comprehend and analyze things as easily as the vast majority of people on this board can.

Jonas, what's your blog? Always looking for more good ones to follow.

If the finance wasn't heavily dumbed down the movie would have been seen by like 1,000 people. I thought they did a great job of explaining very complicated matters in simplistic terms. The point of the movie was to inform the general public of some things they probably weren't familiar with surrounding the financial collapse in a fun and approachable way, not make a 100% accurate movie that bores the general public to death.

My favorite stock right now is Consolidated Tomoka (CTO). They're a diversified real estate company whose assets are worth significantly more than the market's valuating them at. Decent chance the company is sold in 2016 which would result in a very high IRR from today. There are already two threads on this forum about CTO, but neither attracted much attention. I've written two posts about them on my blog (linked in my signature below) and will be posting another in a few days. There's been a lot of news coming out of the company the past 2-3 months so there's plenty to write about.

I was just reading in Thinking, Fast and Slow a study that showed 70% of political races are won by the more attractive candidate (not that this applies to Trump ;D). The halo effect is very strong though; it's easy to look at an attractive, powerful individual and assume their other leadership qualities will follow. It was interesting that the tendency to vote for attractive candidates was shown to be the strongest in people who watch the most TV and the effect virtually disappeared in voters who don't watch TV.

I think it's more about them being cool/unique than it being the smartest decision in the world. I could see myself getting a small number of shares of my best (or worst) investments converted to certificates to hang in my office someday.

Finally got my print and it is now framed and hanging on my wall ~8 feet from my desk. Good daily motivation to look at :)

Don't apologize, that was a good joke. That Nawar presentation was great, learned quite a few things. Thanks for posting.

Nope. Assuming you're scuttle butting for a potential short idea, here's a write-up from Raper Capital on shorting Chipotle: http://rapercapital.com/2015/12/07/behavioral-investing-case-study-short-chipotle/

Mind talking about your own experiences as well? Angel investing is something I'd love to get involved in down the road. Some random questions off the top of my head: 1. How'd you get started? 2. Do you invest on your own or through a fund? 3. Average investment in dollars? Range as well? 4. How involved are you with the start-ups? Pure money investments or also director/mentor type roles?

As much as I love this book I can't see a 12-year old enjoying it. Charlie isn't exactly known for his use of simple language. Haven't read it in a couple years but I think Dhando Investor could be a good option. Isn't most of the book a big analogy to motel owners? Seems like something 12-year olds would understand? Not positive though.

Lol at "goes ballistic." Sensationalized click-bait headlines have become my new pet peeve. Congrats to Bezos though. The more billionaires exploring space the better!

Recently started Thinking, Fast and Slow. Just fascinating. Goes more in-depth on some of the biases that Munger talks about. The more I learn about psychology, human biases, how the brain works, etc the more I wonder how the fuck I functioned as a clueless young adult.

One thing I found valuable when starting out was reading a bunch of investment write-ups from other investors (Value Investors Club and investing blogs are perfect). Seeing what other people look for in undervalued companies helped me to start recognizing those things myself.

I rarely have people to play with, but my favorite is Backgammon. From first look it appears to be mostly luck, but it's a much deeper game than I originally thought. Edit: And poker ;D

Thanks Tim. That makes sense, wasn't aware of the 6-month holding period requirements.

Do actual insiders (directors, CEOs) kind of just get a pass on insider trading laws? I clearly know little about the actual laws, but it seems those individuals always have non-public information so basically all buys and sales would be insider trading.

Just a suggestion but I bet people are much more likely to read it if you give a synopsis, what you found so interesting, etc.