Jurgis

I don't know if crowd here has insights into this. Possibly wrong crowd to ask. :) Context: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renaissance_Technologies Recent performance is unknown, but known outperformance to 2013 is huge. Why is there no competition that have ground the quant analysis advantage to dust? OK, so Renaissance has a big advantage that they have been collecting data (and algorithms) for ages and they have size advantage to purchase huge data centers to crunch the data and squeeze actionable strategies. They also possibly hire the best and the brightest. However, all of these advantages are also disadvantages. Huge outperformance should have attracted copycats. Although nobody knows Renaissance algorithms, you'd think other shops would have tried to replicate or do something similar. Cost of computers is not very huge nowadays (you can pop analysis into AWS even). They are not doing HFT, so you don't need millisecond decisions (but even HFT is full of competitive shops). It's always possible to find young bright kids who want to do a killing instead of going to "stodgy" Renaissance. And smaller shops could outperform in less liquid and less efficient markets, where Renaissance can't hunt. Is James Simons just so much better? Do they really have so much first-mover advantage? Any other ideas? So why this hasn't been competed into oblivion? Sorry, this is not an actionable topic and possibly way OT in value investing forum. Just another technologists wondering rant. 8)

AFAIK, it does not take outside money, probably does not publish results, etc. To be more precise, they have some offshoots that are still open to outside investors, but these might not have long record - who knows.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-26/bridgewater-s-dalio-trumps-soros-as-most-profitable-hedge-fund ? on these net gain numbers. Bridgewater for example, $45B on how much capital? If someone invested $10,000 in 1975 and left it there, what would it be now? Yeah, these numbers don't seem to be useful to determine (out)performance.

Another good reason.

Why not? I've been harping about famous managers underperforming in various places for quite a time. Einhorn. Loeb. Ackman. So Uccmal opened a thread based on Pabrai, but really that's just yet another example . Edit: if you are looking something to blame for the thread, blame SP500 runup from 2009. :P

OT, but I'll answer: 1. Fear. Fear that the index will go sideways or down for a long time and you actually won't reach your targets before retirement. 2. Time. Reaching your goal @50 is better than reaching your goal @70. 3. Goal inflation. I know you said vague "multi-millionaire", but it does matter if you have $1M or $2M or $10M @70. With $1M there is a risk that it won't be enough if you calculate medical expenses and long term care and longevity. Even more so if your portfolio gives crap returns from there. 4. Convenience. Like Buffett, I believe that private jet travel is great. This won't work if you have $1M, but will work if you have >$10M. (Yes, like Buffett, I'll call this "Indefensible". But you asked for reasons and it's a reason 8) ).

So some people gave examples of companies, hedge funds, etc. that outperformed for 15 years. Not a huge list, but still not bad. But let's ask two more difficult questions: 1. Who has invested majority of their money 10 or 15 years ago into a company/fund that has outperformed? (Yeah, I know we have some BRK and FFH long term holders here, you can jump up and down, good job). 2. Who has conviction enough to invest majority of their money into a company/fund today and hold it for next 10 or 15 years. Which company would that be? (This would exclude hypotheticals such as Renaissance - whom I respect deeply, but nobody's gonna get their money there). Edit: just to be clear: Uccmal might be looking for pure "funds". I am fine if you give an example of "not really fund" company like FFH/BRK/BAM/FRMO/whatever.

FYI Jeffrey Gundlach pitched NLY again in second part of Barron's roundtable. I have no holdings in this space.

My understanding is that TurboTax online does not import from IBKR but TurboTax standalone (for PC) does. However, I'm still waiting to see if anyone can confirm this. Edit: Interactive Brokers is not part of TT partner list, which means that you cannot import IB forms through TT import interface. You can save IB information from IB in TXF format and import that into TT - https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/index.php?f=tax&p=us2 . However, this only works with PC product (standalone). It does not work with TT Online. Since I've been using TT Online up to now, this sucks. I have to either switch to TT standalone or type a lot. Switching to standalone sucks since TT Online has all my info from previous years, which saves a lot of time. Using online and typing sucks since there's tons of IB transactions. :( GRRRR. Another reason to hate IB. Edit2: Directions how to switch from TT Online to TT standalone: https://ttlc.intuit.com/questions/1901476-move-your-2013-online-return-to-the-2013-turbotax-cd-download-software

This seems to be occurring pretty much everyday around midnight EST: Is CoBF running bitcoin mining around midnight? NSA hacking? DDoS'ing Vladimir Putin or ISIS? Technical minds want to know. :)

Adesigar probably posted this for fun, but I'll try to relate it to Mephistopheles' question: Is the price really the decisive factor for choosing tax filing software? Isn't correctness, convenience, speed to complete the process, clarity of instructions, etc. much more important? For anyone on CoBF, IMHO, the most important feature is the capability to painlessly and correctly slurp in your stock investment transactions from your financial providers. If I were you, I'd base my decision on this rather than on other things (like price). Although if you're a buy-and-hold-forever investor or invest only in tax deferred accounts, then perhaps this is not important to you. I've only done taxes by hand and via Turbo Tax Online. I think TTO is OK with some caveats. You should specify your concrete situation if you want more precise suggestions. E.g.: are you self-employed, are you getting stock options, ESPP at work, are you investing in MLPs and need to file K1s, and so on. ---------------------------- Potentially off-topic: this year will be yet another step up for me in terms of tax filing complexity. Last year the biggest hurdle was ESPP filing - TurboTax online does not provide good explanations on how to fill this. I had to Bing/Google for suggestions. I found http://thefinancebuff.com/ and I very strongly recommend the site for various topics including tax related ( I have no affiliation with the author except for getting help from him for my questions ). This year, I have IB account - and I seem to have heard that TurboTax Online does not import IB transactions - can anyone confirm or deny this? This would be very helpful. Also I have Husband-and-Wife Sole Proprietorship to report this year. Presumably Turbo Tax handles this. I wonder how much longer I can get through without a CPA. :) (Not that CPA guarantees great filling. My mother had someone fill her trivial 1040EZ and they messed it up. I had to redo it with TT instead...)

Won't stop me from investing in the company. It's par for the course for tech companies as you observed. Just ignore their non-GAAP make-believe earnings and stock "buybacks". Same with overpaid CEOs. It's an issue, I vote against it, but I ignore it in buy/sell decisions. ;)

Of course.

If you want "won't go BK" picks, NOV, DNOW are possible choices. GDWN.GB might fit the bill, though it's not only oil-affected, but also industry/steel affected AFAIK. Disclosure: I hold NOV and GDWN.GB

Exactly.

OK, fine, I give up. Chalk the bottom. I'm not gonna buy any oil related stocks anymore. I swear, cross my heart. :P .... I said "stocks" didn't I... that doesn't include options, bonds, prefs, nosir... 8)

You believe being early is the same thing as being wrong, Jurgis? Well if timeframe for prediction is not specified, it is just invalid prediction. It wouldn't be if he provided the time frame for his argument. And yet he - as most pundits - hides behind "it will happen at some point". So if I tell you that KO will disappear as a company, you'll consider me a prophet even though I'll have to repeat (probably for couple decades) that "oh shucks, I'm early, but I'm not wrong"?

LOL, no. It's always the guys (and gals, let's spread blame evenly) with cash who waste everyone's time in a line. Swype the card is way so much faster. I hate cash payers in line. Mobile phone payers can be pain too though. Technology is new, rather crap and doesn't work often. Same with mobile phone boarding passes in airport - they try to scan the damn thing, touch the screen, phone goes to some other app, 10 minutes later... :'(

Sure, and Peter Schiff has been performing terribly. But Dalio has generally performed in the pure Alpha funds no matter what the market environment is so it's probably worth listening to him, no? The man has been wrong before, but he didn't build a $160B hedge fund by being wrong often and letting it impair returns. Hah, in a rare occasion I'll agree with TwoCitiesCapital: Dalio knows what he does. The only risk to listening to him is that he runs a huge huge predictive operation and what he says is (a) oversimplification of what his team and machines churn out; (b) data & results might change and he won't tell you when it does. ;)

The article is mostly OK, but it's still MF click bait. Thanks for your honesty. I understand you guys have to do this. Doesn't mean I like it. ;) Take care.

A sign that market is down 10%+ and there's a panic in the streets: we are getting "cash is king" and "everyone should hold silver and gold" threads again. :-X

The article is mostly OK, but it's still MF click bait.

LOL. You managed it quite well without it.

Another closet predictor with no record of such prediction. Nice to see you.

I'm not sure if we are in the reflexivity area with oil prices. If we are, then a V turnaround is more likely than if we are not. I have to say that current oil prices were not expected by most of the board (me included). I'll go on record predicting that WTI will go above US$50 sometime in 2016.