Jurgis

Hey man, you wanna inject yourself with the Russian vaccine sold to you by Putin you go right ahead. I'm gonna continue to skip eating out for a few extra months and wait for the one from AstraZeneca, Sanofi, or JNJ. Full Disclosure: I also don't drive a Lada, or fly or airliners named Ilyushin or Tupolev. Phase 3 trials are for wussies. True men chew glass, drink jet fuel, and do not need no f**king vaccines.

Covid predictions for GoodJudgement: https://goodjudgment.io/covid-recovery/#1389 (Scroll for other questions or go through: https://goodjudgment.com/covidrecovery/

"Molly's Game" https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4209788 The movie is well made and might be interesting for poker players, investors, and overall wannabes. IMO it's a total fantasy though. [spoilerS] The main character is guilty as a f&*k and totally whitewashed in the movie. So there's that. I'd give it 7/10 overall, but ding it to 5/10 for the whitewashing fantasy.

Interesting article. It seems that genetically Warren is not in a good shoes. Dementia, cancer and cardiac problems. OTOH Doris lived to 92 and Warren seems to be mostly fine still.

Well, yes. Also, as you know, REITs != RE. If you get into a superwave of RE appreciation in some local market (SoCal for last 50+ years? NYC from 70s? Canada RE?), RE might outperform stocks with little effort. Especially considering leverage, etc. So, yes, it is opportunity for not-stock-savvy people to make (a lot of) money. OTOH, even OK markets, especially without accounting for leverage, usually give meh results. Boston is an example of a market where RE has done "well". And unleveraged returns still are in 3% annualized range. We could probably check Buffett's house appreciation since his purchase to see how Omaha did. Lithuania is pretty much zero for last 10+ years. So for non-stock-savvy people there it's pretty much crap return.

rb, FT stole your idea... ::)

Most of the homes, especially in the Keys are built to avoid that. For instance where I'm at is roughly 8 ft above see level. And the units are an additional 10-12 ft elevated. Most of the complexes and homes look like the one in this link: https://blog.iese.edu/doing-business/2016/08/22/climate-change-and-the-florida-keys/ End of the day, if you are hugely concerned about global warming and not bullish on dredging/seawall type engineering solutions, its probably not the place to buy property. If you arent, there is hardly anywhere like it IMO, especially of you like fishing, scuba, island life, etc. So, Gregmal how much is the approx. property insurance ( including wind and flood) for your ~ 500k condo? Risk perception is subjective, but insurance rates aren’t, imo. Isn't Florida flood insurance subsidized by NFIP? https://www.sun-sentinel.com/opinion/fl-op-com-flood-insurance-fix-20190102-story.html

Why would you assume things?

To be fair to SD, there seems to be (at least) two universes of friends/families: 1. The ones where it's a great/good experience to invest/manage money/properties/etc. together. These exist as SD claims. Also can be seen from all the investors starting to manage friends/family money. 2. The ones where it's a recipe for disaster. There's definitely non-trivial percentage of these. There's likely a spectrum between 1 and 2.

You seem to have limited knowledge of families... ::) Worst idea ever for non-trivial percentage of people. :-X

This is my thought as well. They already have a cash problem. Why add to it? I disagree for two reasons: First, I don't think this is a good reason to own an overvalued security. Assuming of course WB thinks Apple is overvalued. Secondly, I don't think they have a cash problem. Having loads of cash isn't a problem, the problem is WB did not use it a few months ago. So if you think they should hold Apple today, then you must also think WB made an error in Mar-Apr not diving into equities head first. I agree with LC. Needing cash (or not needing cash) isn't a good reason to make buy or sell decisions. Imagine running your own portfolio that way. I know multiple people who took cash out of 401Ks during the Great Recession because they lost their jobs and needed cash. This kind of thing is the polar opposite of value investing. The fact that arguments like this about Berkshire (shouldn't sell possibility overvalued positions because marginal value of additional cash is low given how overcapitalized and cash generative the company is) make some intuitive sense speaks to Berkshire's size being an issue. There are three connected issues really: - Selling appreciated stock in taxable account is always a high hurdle, since any alternative (cash or other position) would have to outperform taking into account tax hit - This is further aggravated by existing and increasing cash position - This is further aggravated by very limited universe of investment options due to the size

1) I agree with you. A lot of people don't though. 8) 2) I hold some AAPL outside my BRK position. I bought most of it before Buffett bought it for BRK. I think that AAPL is currently valued for ~5% return assuming 7% growth rate (that's what Morningstar expects - this might be optimistic or not) and terminal 15PE. Assuming higher growth rate or higher terminal PE, the expected return could be higher. I have trimmed AAPL at lower prices and might trim again. In most situations it is a mistake to trim/sell forever holds. Anyway, this is not AAPL thread. AAPL discussion should be moved to AAPL thread. 8) From Berkshire perspective, I don't expect Buffett to trim, but he has surprised in the past. Taxes on gains is a crap though.

Is Flagstaff actually a place to live? I've been there couple times while going to Grand Canyon and IMO it's basically a deserted gateway town with couple hotels for cheap people who don't want to pay up to stay next to Grand Canyon. Pretty zero attractions. Yeah, you can drive to Grand Canyon and Sedona, but ... ::) I know you hate Phoenix, but Phoenix is actually big enough (actually maybe too big right now) to have restaurants, culture, activities, etc. Flagstaff IMO is dead. Though maybe it has changed in the last 10-15 years since I stayed there. ::) Well, I went there only once about 10 years on a trip to the mountain states (NM, AZ, CO, UT) and there at least a few good breweries and mexican restaurants there, so there that. Phoenix as a city is actually OK, as there are nice areas, but the climate just brutal. We went there in fall and the Thermometer of our showed close to 120F, so it’s basically a hellhole (urban hotspot). Las Vegas is the same. I have complimentary things of Tuscan and the temperature there are much more moderate, but still quite hot. Personally, my favorite from the mountain states is CO. I think I agree with you then. Phoenix and Las Vegas have tons of amenities, but climate is brutal. I kinda liked Salt Lake City when we stayed there couple days while doing Canyons-Yellowstone trip. Nice city center. Good veggie restaurants. Not sure if I would like to live there long term with Mormons. I don't remember Colorado that much, but I think Denver and Boulder were fine. I think Albuquerque and Santa Fe are OK too, but not sure about climate.

Definitely this.

Is Flagstaff actually a place to live? I've been there couple times while going to Grand Canyon and IMO it's basically a deserted gateway town with couple hotels for cheap people who don't want to pay up to stay next to Grand Canyon. Pretty zero attractions. Yeah, you can drive to Grand Canyon and Sedona, but ... ::) I know you hate Phoenix, but Phoenix is actually big enough (actually maybe too big right now) to have restaurants, culture, activities, etc. Flagstaff IMO is dead. Though maybe it has changed in the last 10-15 years since I stayed there. ::)

+1. I agree with SD. I thought about buying 2nd house as investment in Florida in 2008-2009 crash, but for me the headache of upkeep is not worth it. Thought about buying a 2nd house in Lithuania, but same thing - actually even more headache to keep unoccupied or partially occupied. But YMMV. Some people love having multiple houses and are good at either outsourcing upkeep or taking care of it themselves. I know people like that both in US and in Lithuania. It's easier if you're retired and have more time to shuffle between the houses and put down fires. It might be easier if 2nd house is actually an apartment - although that might have different set of issues. It's easier if you throw money at it - for upkeep/cleanup/managing/etc. Edit: (skip if you want to avoid depressing list of questions from no-second-house whiner): for Florida: who's gonna hurricane prep the house? deal with any damage from storms/hurricanes? for any snowed in locations: who's gonna do snow removal, check for burst pipes, snow dams, leaks, etc.? for any areas with wildfires: who's gonna fire prep the house if there's wildfire? For any locations with not-low-crime: who's gonna check that house is not broken into/etc.? How about heating bills / AC bills while unoccupied? Yeah, most of these can be solved by throwing money at it. Some can be solved by being outgoing and neighbor friendly in some locations and getting neighbors/friends/family to look after your house.

Holding stocks - even forever stocks like AAPL - in taxable accounts sucks. But then I tax-efficient trimmed AAPL something like 20+% lower. So maybe the right thing is not to trim... ::)

Murderers. :'(

Tiktok video? Clearly sponsored by CCP.

But are city demand and prices actually dropping?

But... electrolytes!

Conclusion: if you keep blowtorch in front of your face, all the viruses will burn to crisp. #novirus #nofear

Blue Horseshoe loves Kodak

So BRK issuance of shares for acquisitions was totally covered by 1961 repurchase?

Yeah, Giverny is pretty impressive.