Jurgis

MIT moves to all online classes after spring break: http://web.mit.edu/covid19/ Students are not going to come back (with virus).

Where do I stand? I don't have much to say that has not been said here by multiple people. But to summarize briefly: - Eradication through containment (which is what happened with SARS presumably) is very likely doomed by now. - If there is no eradication through containment, then it is possible the virus will stay around for long time or forever. I am not an expert if/how widely distributed viruses could disappear. There might be mechanisms apart from everyone getting (some) immunity eventually. - Containment through preventative measures/testing/quarantine/lockdowns is likely beneficial to flatten the infection curve and to provide time for vaccine/drug development and testing. I believe that even if testing/quarantine/lockdowns don't stop the virus spread completely. So I don't agree that testing/quarantine/lockdowns are worthless. They can be targeted and implemented better or worse. - I am not an expert on transmission speeds and have not run transmission models. It is pretty clear that transmission is not guaranteed, which explains why (some) infected people don't infect everyone they might have interacted with. There might be secondary factors why certain cases/patients/localities have higher transmission rate than others. I think this is one contentious topic between people who think "it's not a big deal", people who think "it is a big deal", people who think "40%/70%/everyone will be infected", people who think "we should test more", people who think "tests won't help", etc. - IMO mortality rates and possible mortality differences by countries are also not fully explained yet. We can only hope that they are low, even though Italian data so far has been scary. - The two points above may explain the (rhetorical?) questions like "if this is so bad, how come we are not all dead yet"? If not, get data, run a model and publish results in NEJM. - Some people argue about a large number of unreported mild/asymptomatic cases. IMO random and extensive testing in S. Korea/Taiwan/possibly China seems to indicate that there is no large number of unreported mild/asymptomatic cases. Unless the tests don't detect them. I'm not gonna make predictions this time. Well, maybe just the prediction in first bullet above. For anyone interested in past predictions, here is what I said on Jan 28: https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/coronavirus/msg393772/#msg393772 (usually I'm way worse in predicting and I would have been happy to be wrong... China might be doing better than I expected...).

Which medical expert? The one who's flooding this thread with his opinions? Or the ones that work on the disease in question and publish their opinions in medical literature/sites?

So what you wrote was callous, but you had good reasons. Ok. Personally I prefer neutral terms when talking about the death and illness of people. I still think the point I made generally applies. There's way too much casual and accepted discrimination against whole groups of people based solely on their age, which is just as out-of-their-control as their gender or color of their skin or sexual orientation or whatever. Investor [inˈvestər] NOUN A person who would sell their own mother if it gave 2bp outperformance. (Also see: rational behavior) I should move this to jokes thread perhaps.

France USA built a giant wall but coronavirus just went around it ;D ;D Here, fixed that for you.

This pretty much.

I can start showing my "Dow 20K" tattoo from 2000 again.

Are you suggesting that digital "coins" whose only real use cases are money laundering, illegal gambling, and buying narcotics are not safe stores of value? That's an outrageous suggestion, and you should apologize to all the hodl-ers with due haste! He already did. See his signature.

Assuming an account that is restricted to SP500 index, some bond index and cash. When would you move cash/bonds to SP500? Question is intentionally restricted. 8)

You moved to Europe?

Agreed. Bunch of wussies. Give me 20% down *&@&ers!

Gates also funded the program that discovered the outbreak in Washington. Bill Gates has a very good chance at looking like a saint or hero when this is all over. He has been looking as a hero to me for a while now. Disclosure: I donate to Gates Philanthropy Partners sometimes.

Oil. It's cheaper than water.

https://emcrit.org/ibcc/covid19/ - medical info collection on Covid19

Yes. :(

Will the real Mike Burry please stand up? ;D

If you have elderly relatives suffering from Alzheimer's, dementia, or other debilitating diseases... give them a gift... send them on a cruise. :-X

Can't access the article - paywall. I wonder how much this might be an issue for other houses/locations built around the same time - or earlier - or later. My house (main part) was built in 1914. It's not in Boston proper, so maybe (hopefully) the issue is not there.

Yeah I think is a long con in terms of the quarantine. WA, Seattle and King County officials know where this is going but they are trying to ease into it to reduce disruption. If people fight on Black Friday for 60" TVs at Walmart, imagine what happens over the last box of TP at Costco if everyone is freaked the eff out because they have been told they should not be out. It could be total chaos. At least right now the TP buyers are just the bandwagon preppers. Officials are concerned about mass hysteria IMO. For context, I am about 16 miles from the long term care center in Kirkland where the first deaths originated. Lots of people are confused and frustrated because they are getting conflicting information. For example teachers are frustrated because people are being told to work from home and avoid mass gatherings but they need to keep going to school which is arguably the worst place in terms of spreading (although you could argue having all those kids running around is worse). A local Toyota dealership had an employee suspected (later confirmed) and tried to hide it, not telling anyone. There are reports on social media of many people falling ill but the confirmed numbers seem really low. Downtown Seattle is a ghost town, the small business owners I know are freaked out they are going to lose their shirts which looks very possible right now. Good times :D Sorry to hear. Hope things work out fine for you and your family.

Yeah, Covid 19 jumped the 1-ft hurdle and infected 90K+ people. Oh, wait. That's not the invertebrates you meant. ::)

I'm sorry, you work in healthcare? As in caring of people who are ill, with the goal of them getting better? There are goals and there are realities. The reality is if your old and/or immuno compromised your more likely to die if you get the corona virus. Without a cure what exactly would you like a healthcare worker to do in that situation? The right thing obviously is to have total contempt to the patients that you exhibit here.

I hope you're not. :-[

That is likely one of the reasons of not testing more widely in US too.

I heard they extend it for 2 weeks for free.