Parsad

+1! Yup...the outlier consequences may be worse...leftist agenda after 2026 mid-term results...Trump has to save face and pushes the tariff war into something worse than a typical recession...etc. Cheers!

Bridgewater, who were very bullish after a Trump victory, are now very bearish on U.S. assets. Could this be a sign of capitulation? Who the hell listens to these guys anyways! Cheers! https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bridgewater-three-co-cios-warn-025433724.html

Did we ever get that wall built? Cheers!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/prominent-short-seller-andrew-left-202455430.html Cheers!

There's nothing wrong with that at all...a little over 13% annualized over 18 years. Keep a good chunk in FFH, another good chunk in a good, cheap ETF and the final slug in deep discount ideas you find that may give you better than 13% annualized return. Not too complicated...takes a lot of the psychology out of it...and considerable continuity in what you hold...as well as limited capital gains! Cheers!

Depends...if you are young and have no dependents. Swing away and swing big...but do it smart. If you are married and probably have children...swing for homeruns when they are obvious, but don't go all in. If you are like me now and just need singles or doubles...no need to go all in. Cheers!

Ok, please fact check stuff like this before posting...or for that matter believing! Dresden University alone has over 20 nuclear science professors and another 30 doctoral students that teach there. https://tu-dresden.de/mn/physik/iktp/das-institut/beschaeftigte#section-3 Cheers!

Although, that chart may give credence to why DEI hire universities aren't efficient...Harvard being the outlier. I can't see #2 through #11 being DEI schools. Although I guarantee #19 Shandong is a party school like Pepperdine! Shandong! Cheers!

They actually call him a DUI hire. He is totally not sober! Cheers!

Definitely looks like any downturn will now be blamed on Powell. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-i-have-no-intention-of-firing-feds-powell-215018599.html They probably won't be able to fire him, but now they have a scapegoat who will be the one responsible! Cheers!

I think you'll do fine if you just trust your own analysis and work through it rigorously. Too many people look to other managers to confirm their own belief...it's dangerous. I learned my lesson 20 years ago trying to follow Seth Klarman into a couple of investments. Their methods probably do not mirror my methods, thus why they probably see the same investment differently. Cheers!

For those that agree all DEI programs should be removed and all hiring for positions based on merit, can you explain to me how Pete Hegseth's brother was made his advisor? https://apnews.com/article/hegseth-brother-signal-dhs-hired-68678a8a653c79a4c6ae31a8bee64836 All these nepotism hirings, doesn't matter which party, should be totally illegal for government positions. Cheers!

Eisman made sure it was easy to understand, but that analyst REALLY knew his numbers! Cheers!

When the tech wreck happened, not everything went down...it was almost entirely tech. Value stocks had 3 great years after, as people where avoiding them for tech stocks until February 2020, and many had been cut in half including Berkshire, Coca-cola, Wells Fargo, etc. While over 65% of tech stocks fell 80% or more between 2000 and 2003. Great financial crisis was so catastrophic that the entire market went down dramatically...virtually no sector left unscathed. Pandemic was closer to GFC...just broad damage across almost all sectors. Current tariff problem seems more like October 1987...dramatic fall, dramatic recovery...long-term bull market after! History rarely repeats, but often rhymes. So it's hard to know whether puts are a good idea or not. Better off having a comfortable position in the markets at most times, and a healthy amount of dry powder (depends on your comfort level). When the shit hits the fan, average in small amounts after each drop of 10% (or increasing amounts after each 10% drop) until you are fully invested if markets have dropped 50%. If they keep dropping (like a Depression) keep switching out of higher P/E stocks into even lower ones. Even in the worst drops, there was a massive rebound 1-3 years out...including 1929. If you've averaged in with your cash, bought cheaper and cheaper assets, you'll be ahead of the game when things rebound...and not when they rebound to where things used to be, but just the initial bounce. You'll just have to make your emergency fund last longer until that massive rebound! Cheers!

A lot of managers missed it...name how many of the Gurus from Guru Focus bought it? Name how many readers here compared to members bought it? So why pick on Mohnish? If you were lucky or smart enough to buy it...maybe put your ego aside and thank your stars you did! Cheers!

Not sure. Watch that Eisman video that Cubs linked. I think that Strategus analyst has got probably the best grip on this thing. There is an endgame, and Trump probably has the more favorable cards presently, but that doesn't mean the outcome will be the one he wants or exactly the way he wants...same with the world. It's more complicated. Cheers!

Cubs, I agree that was an excellent interview! Actually, probably the best analysis I've seen anywhere so far on the whole thing. Recommend that everyone listen to it...it's a few weeks old, but dead on! I want those results...but I think like the Strategus analyst said, there was no real plan for part of it...just Trump saying "I want this!" I agree with most of the stuff happening, but I'm concerned (just like I was concerned about enormous interference during the GFC and after), that they may be creating other problems by taking a chainsaw to things rather than a scalpel or passing stuff through Congress that is more effective. That analyst (Dan Clifton) is probably one of the most knowledgeable people I've read or heard anywhere in the last year. Brilliant guy! He would be a great addition to any administration. Cheers!

I'm not sure this is true. I don't think either one can survive without the other...Munger was right on this. There is no way China replaces U.S. consumption quickly enough from other nations to prevent a slowdown in China. And vice versa, the U.S. will be pushed into a recession if consumers stop spending, lose confidence and business slows. They both need to negotiate and find a way through to working together. Cheers!

Yup...the message will build and build through the next six months and people will forget about the impact of the tariffs. The blame will be put on not lowering interest rates sooner. Cheers!

I agree. Cheers!

Viking gave you a very specific point...that the Japanese asked the American team what they wanted as concessions...they didn't have an answer. This may be negotiations, but one of the biggest tenants of negotiation is being able to tell the opposing party what you want. They made it pretty clear with Iran what they wanted...how come not the Japanese? Cheers!

Add a tax to processed foods, where the tax revenue is only used to offset medical care due to obesity, etc. You have a tax on gambling that is supposed to be used for addiction treatment. You have higher insurance premiums on poor drivers. You have smoking class action settlements for healthcare treatment of lung cancer patients. Should be no different. And yes, food insecurity in the U.S. and Canada is higher than it was in the 70's and 80's. 50M people in the U.S. used food banks last year...14M were children. Cheers!

As long as that money is then used to fund food insecurity in the U.S. and not for cutting taxes or spending in any other area...defense, education, government, etc. Cheers!

Yes, they are intertwined, so keep posts that discuss politics or political policy to this thread. It might be difficult, but I think it is best for everyone. Cheers!

You can talk about damage to Disney's IP without using inflammatory words like "woke", "liberalism", etc. I think people know what is inflammatory and what is not. I think because tariffs is highly political at the moment, it should be kept to the Political Posts thread. Cheers!