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Everything posted by Parsad
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If a tree falls in a forest and there is no one there to hear it, does it count? Only if there is no impairment to the value of the forest! ;D I'm still wary of these guys, as they have now said that the independent review will take longer due to fragmented data. How the heck does a billion dollar company (at one point) have fragmented data? Cwericb, great job on the contrarian bet, but take a little off the table. Cheers!
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I second this -- FFH and BRK are always April/May so it'd be nice to have a Oct/Nov event. Yes, the updated homepage will have a place where members can set up a specific meet for a specific city, and allow you to coordinate everything. I have to figure out how I want it to work, but basically it will just make the process easier for those already doing this in some cities. Cheers!
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Actually, I'll get this going because I've come up with one that may intrigue all of you. An incubator program/page, that existing members of the board could join separately. We've got nearly a thousand members, so say 250 want to participate. We set up a page not unlike those micro-finance sites and have young, entrepreneurial investors pitch ideas to the group, and we vote on a handful to seed. The members pay say $500 a year or some number, and that raises an intial amount of $125,000 that could be distributed. More of a psychological experiment for all of us, as well as one that may pay some dividends. Anyway, it's just a weird wacky idea that I'm sure some of you could expand on. Like I said, throw them out there! Cheers!
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Ok, since you all propagated the "tip jar" idea, tell me some of the things you would like to see added to the board. Throw out the ideas, as wild and crazy as they may seem. We won't be able to implement all of them, and the more costly ideas may take some time, but we can at least start upgrading and making the board even more user friendly. A couple of the changes I plan to do are below: - Redesigned home page with a proper complete link back and forth between the message board and homepage - Homepage would have different member service/discount links, as well as member events, current news, updates, etc. - Mobile app to make the board easier to read especially on smartphones Initially, we are just migrating the board over, and then Paul will slowly develop things we want on a prototype site before going live. But let me know what you would like, and over time we'll make some of those things happen. The one thing I don't want the board to ever change is the community concept and feeling it has. You would never get the type of cult following and support we have...not just on any site...and that's because of all of the members who are here. I'm humbled to just be a part of this, and I consider you all lifetime members of this weird fraternity we've developed! Cheers and thanks!
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Unfortunately, I would say about a third of the board interacts here anonymously for different reasons (industry, reputation, privacy, etc), but their donation information is their true identity. I don't know think it is a good idea to list the donors on here because of that. Cheers!
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The less obvious the better! ;D Cheers!
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According to this article, high-frequency trading firms tripled their trading volumes as the markets lost 13%. Great volatility for investors to exploit, but could create a significant confidence issue for other investors. Cheers! http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-11/high-frequency-firms-tripled-trading-as-s-p-500-plunged-13-wedbush-says.html :D
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Hi Folks, There were some suggestions to create a membership fee to use the site to cover operating costs, etc, but I decided not to use that, as I would like the site to remain free for everyone. So I've added a Paypal "Donation" tab in the menu instead for anyone who feels like they want to contribute anything towards the site or my time. Any funds provided will be used to upgrade the site as we migrate over, adding additional features for members, and offsetting my costs and time spent planning our annual Fairfax Financial Shareholder's Dinner...as well as other future events or services you all want for members. Cheers and thanks for supporting the website! Sanjeev
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They have exposure, but they feel it is manageable. That's a risk that most major banks with international units have exposure to. About the only large scale U.S. bank that has no such exposure is Wells. And then you counter that risk with the progress they are making in their loan business, both residential mortgage and consumer loans, and their global investment business. As well as the lines of business they have moved out of. I really see alot of similiarities to Fairfax when they were struggling, and I was very impressed by their team on that conference call. It's not going to be easy, as Moynihan alluded to when it came down to the question of if BAC will be able to achieve a 1% ROA long-term. There are significant headwinds, but they certainly seemed to be up to the challenge. Also the fact that all of the executives on the call had alot of their personal net worth at risk in the company stock was terrific to hear. I certainly wouldn't recommend that anyone bet the farm on BAC (Eric!), but we've done our analysis and we have a comfortable size position through the warrants. Cheers!
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Guys, thanks very much for the offers. I never started this site to make any sort of money. I like running it and enjoy using it myself. I do not want to institute a membership fee, as who knows what young minds in high school or college might want to learn or contribute. I myself got to know alot about Berkshire from the Motley Fool BRK Board when it was free. In fact, that's where I became friends with Lotsofcoke, who first invited me to a Yellow BRK'ers Party in Omaha, and I eventually met Buffett for the first time. It changed everything! Eventually, I went off and started the old MSN Board after Motley Fool instituted a membership fee. So no membership fee! What I will probably do is implement the tip jar idea, but in one of those tabs that you see on various free open source software sites. Between the ad revenue and the occasional tip, we should be able to more than cover any tech costs, as well it will allow me to cover some expenses I incur setting up the annual dinner and other functions I want to create for boardmembers. Cheers and thanks!
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Obviously gold margin requirements are increasing, and I suspect at some point investors are going to see a correction of some significance. They are saying not as much as silver's correction, but I think it will be close. Cheers! http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903918104576502063469920634.html
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Here is the link to the Bank of America conference call that Bruce Berkowitz and Fairholme held yesterday. You just have to register to receive the stream. https://us.reg.meeting-stream.com/fairholmecapitalmanagementllc_081011/ Contrary to what the media said, for anyone investing in banks, you really should hear the call. Some great details on the current environment for banks. I wasn't able to listen to it yesterday due to the website being down. Also, while I was impressed with Moynihan in previous interviews, I'm equally impressed with the team behind him. These guys are smart and they know their bank. Are there risks? Yup, but these guys seem as capable as anyone else I've ever listened to in the banking industry. If they succeed, Ericopoly is never going to have to work again! ;D Cheers!
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Yeah, because it's been so crazy, both with the markets and the website going down, I didn't have time to courier the book to Mohnish's office. I will send it out tomorrow morning, and hopefully we should have it on eBay in the next week or so. Cheers!
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Hey Sanj, any thought of maybe putting up a members only service category? Perhaps if there are other things Members do besides investing -to help each other out? I know we cant invest 24/7 or we will go cookoo lol Not a bad idea. Maybe I can co-ordinate some sort of "Corner of Berkshire & Fairfax member discount" program from those that do offer services. The homepage doesn't really get used much, and it is somewhat disconnected from the message board. Perhaps, I can create a free marketplace for members to sell "value investing related" items (books, annual reports, etc) and a "member services site" with discounted services. Sanjeev, I would be happy to donate domain services, DNS and a place to host the website. Just shoot me a pm anytime. Offer much appreciated Mark! We have a great group of boardmembers! Cheers!
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Fairfax’s Watsa sees Dirty Thirties pain ahead
Parsad replied to leftcoast's topic in Fairfax Financial
And how many moves ahead is Buffett seeing? What's interesting these days is how differently the two of them see (or at least talk) about the macro economic picture. Not that it really matters much to an individual investor who is just looking for a few massively undervalued companies. But it's interesting nonetheless. I would say a couple more than Prem! ;D We were buying. We have to stick to what Ben Graham taught, and for the most part ignore macroeconomic forecasts. You buy cheap, and then sell dear. That's all we have control over. Cheers! -
Fairfax’s Watsa sees Dirty Thirties pain ahead
Parsad replied to leftcoast's topic in Fairfax Financial
I described Prem's views at our AGM this year as below, when asked by an attendee what I thought: It's like chess. We're not as smart as Prem or the rest of the guys at Hamblin-Watsa, so we see 2-3 moves ahead. He sees 6-7 moves ahead, so while his views may not be appear at this moment or the near future, they do usually appear further down the road. Cheers! -
Article on Buffett's comments during the recent volatility. Cheers! http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/08/11/warren-buffett-buy-stocks/
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Hi Folks, I apologize for the site being down during such a crucial period. A software upgrade malfunctioned and the bureaucracy of the hosting service provider was delaying restoration of the database to just before the upgrade. Please thank board member Paul Clerc of Watermelon Web Works, LLC, who started working on the site a little over an hour ago, and accomplished what Godaddy.com's host of technicians could not get done in over 36 hours! We will be migrating the site over to Paul and Watermelon over the next few weeks. This will never happen again! In the meantime, I'm sure everyone has plenty of stuff to talk about, so get to it! Cheers!
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I was really impressed with Moynihan in that interview. I already liked what he was doing, but he was very clear on what the bank's objectives are. He's streamlining this sucker and is going to focus on the core businesses like JPM or WFC. Cheers!
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It's not back-patting, but trying to recognize the psychological aspect that gets manifested in market behavior. Cheers!
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Ericopoly called the bottom yesterday. Looks like he was right. Cheers!
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From what I've read, it's pretty clear that Buffett has shorted before. I am not sure where this notion comes from that he's never shorted before. I don't believe anyone said that Buffett has never shorted. Just that he doesn't recommend it to anyone, as liabilities are unlimited, while the upside is limited. We don't short, but we had Spyder puts and we had puts on CRM before the market drop. But we will make a heck of alot more on the long-side we bought after the drop, and not from those puts before the drop. Cheers!
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Bruce B. I hope you've learned this lesson...
Parsad replied to bargainman's topic in General Discussion
What do you mean by 85% right Sanjeev? There's legitimate risk in Bank of America. Just like there was in Fairfax. Now is it manageable, and can they do it? I think Moynihan is a good guy and is trying to clean it up. They've got robust cash flows and their book of business has improved from three years ago. They've got assets they can sell to raise capital, rather than go to the public markets. But is it enough if things get tough, lawsuits multiply and trusts have to be set up to settle these things? That's the 15%. Prem's 15% was cured by Cundill, Markel and Southeastern, along with Hamblin-Watsa's investment prowess, the insurance executives working their butts off, and the amazing Dennis Gibbs running off business as if he was doing casual laps at the local YMCA pool. Does Moynihan have the team? Does he have the network? Does he have a bit of luck? I'm betting that he does, but I did it through the warrants only. Cheers! -
Comments on Bloomberg by Ken Rogoff. Cheers! http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-09/rogoff-says-fed-likely-to-embark-on-qe3-act-decisively-to-aid-recovery.html
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Bruce B. I hope you've learned this lesson...
Parsad replied to bargainman's topic in General Discussion
He's definitely right on financials. I think he's 85% right on BAC. And yes, it's not his fault that people pull their money, but unfortunately it comes with the territory when you run a mutual fund or a fund with no lockup. Cheers!