Parsad

Who the f**k is Bernard Mooney?! ;D How many companies has he turned around. Cheers!

It was very nice of him! John's done a great job at Manual of Ideas, so to be mentioned in the same breath was humbling and very complimentary. Cheers!

Good job by this writer for Gurufocus! Cheers! http://www.gurufocus.com/news/229743/2013-pabrai-investment-funds-annual-meeting-notes--chicago

+1 7.5% or even 15% arent garenteed just because you have a business model, or are happy with lumpy returns. I think Al's message missed the mark.... Well, historically they have achieved a 9.4% annual return on their investment portfolio… I thought 7.5% was conservative enough… But it seems I live in a bubble!! ;D ;D PS Actually, I don’t need a 15% compounded increase in BVPS… My firm will probably continue to post operating profits for many years into the future… (of course, this might be another bubble of mine!! ;D ;D) Therefore, a 10% compounded annual return from its stock market investments will probably be more than enough! To achieve such a result Fairfax must get a 4.5-5% annual return on its investment portfolio… practically half its historical result. That’s I think a good margin of safety… Of course, a good margin of safety, if you find yourself in bubble territory, might still not be enough!! ;D ;D giofranchi I can perfectly live of my income as an employee but that doesn't mean I have to be happy with lower returns in investments because it's just an "extra". I have my questions with the way Fairfax (or PW) presents the returns they achieved and the way Prem pounds the table about it in the annual letters. For example, is it correct to implement the first year of operations when that year achieved 180% return? Look at the CAGR when you remove the first few years (because those are irrelevant now anyway) and you get a clearer picture. Same goes for the last 10/15 years. It's just a lot more accurate when looking for future returns. Buffett doesn't exclude his early years when he was killing the markets, nor does Leucadia where they made a killing in their first couple of years. Investors, including board members here, take very short-term views of performance. You look at those two companies above, as well as Fairfax, and their compounding of book over 10, 15, 20, 25 years has been extraordinary. They get lumpy results when certain bets just kill it, and they buy things that fit their discipline. Leucadia's entire existence was buying turnarounds and it actually worked better than Buffett's purchases of quality businesses. Fairfax is buying in Canada because they are testing the waters in areas they operate...easier to integrate...easier to flex your reputation...start small...start with businesses you know. They've also stepped out and bought things like Thomas Cook India to expand and look for businesses there, but with people in place who know the region better than them. You are in the first inning of a nine inning game, and investors expect them to be swinging at every pitch like there will never be another opportunity. Crazy! Cheers!

Well, I have unconditional love for Prem and everyone at Fairfax, but I won't hold something to hold it. Otherwise you just create more risk in the portfolio if the margin of safety isn't adequate, and you give up opportunities that may be even better elsewhere. That being said, the average investor would be far better off holding Fairfax than any index over the long-term, and I would suspect will do better than if they even owned Berkshire Hathaway, simply because of size. As well, it's been three years of subpar performance because of their conservative stance, while markets have roared ahead. And now, you have the additional impact of significant acquisitions and deals that have gone sideways...Sandridge, Torstar, Blackberry...while insurance pricing has had a tepid recovery. So the amount of pessimism around Fairfax is pretty damn big when considering that the company is no where near the financial distress it has faced in the past, and is very well positioned to take advantage of others when the shit hits the fan. I don't know...sentiment on here may be a good contrary indicator. Cheers!

I've bought and sold Fairfax many times since 2003. In fact, we sold half our stake several months ago to buy other stuff while retaining our cash position. But, now reading something like this after the BBRY acquisition and the amount markets have run up, I think the true contrarian would actually be buying Fairfax. I think I may re-establish my position with more of this sentiment floating around. Cheers!

Don't know. Cheers!

Actually, I would have been happy had Prem quietly made some money for me rather than making a high-profile, but very dubious acquisition. I really don't care if the rest of the world knows who he is. Just do a solid job on capital allocation....which unfortunately is an open debate right now. :( Well I agree with you on keeping the low profile, but Munger and Buffett are getting older, and the investing community will need quality mentors to continue lessons on investing, life, morality and economics. There are plenty of people out there worthy of that, but I think Prem deserves that recognition as well...especially for the quality leadership he brings, as well as the astute investment mind he and his team possess. Cheers!

A few of the articles today introducing the rest of the world outside of Canada to Prem. About frickin' time people paid attention! Cheers! http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/09/23/meet-prem-watsa-the-man-riding-to-blackberrys-rescue/tab/print/ http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/09/23/meet-blackberry-acquirer-fairfax-financial-the-canadian-berkshire-hathaway/

You been sleeping SmallCap?! ;D Cheers!

What did he say about Exor? I might have missed that, as I stepped out to use the washroom for a few minutes. He flat out said that Pabrai Funds has a position in Fiat. Cheers!

Fiat. The 7-8 commercials, plus him saying "we have a position in Fiat" kind of gave it away! ;D Cheers!

If that's what you think...so be it. Cheers!

Is this is real Pabrai Mohnish? He has an ID in this forum? Wow! :o Do you think Mohnish would be caught dead posting on here? Plus he could never write anything that eloquent without using the word "Dhandho" in there somewhere. Plenty of Pabrai groupies out there...they were throwing their underwear at him like he was Tom Jones this weekend. ;D Cheers!

Breaking news...pressure from CofB&F cracks Pabrai...will continue to open Chicago meeting to groupies and non-investors...says culture of Chicago meeting must be maintained! ;D. Cheers!

Today! This is it. Cheers!

Well, my love affair with this beautiful and fantastic city may be coming to an end. Was with Mohnish last night, and the subject came up that the Chicago meeting going forward will be investors only, and everyone else will be invited to the LA meeting. I guess I will be going to LA every September now only, and will have to find time to make a trip to Chicago outside of the Pabrai Funds AGM...the rest of you can keep New York...I love Chicago! So those non-investors attending this year...enjoy it, since it will be your last one in the Windy City. My only solace is if MPIC or any company we acquire ever has a U.S. AGM...it will be here in Chicago. We'll meet again my friend! ;D Cheers!

I don't own BBRY, but after reading the report yesterday, I'm not sure how anyone can write off BBRY after one quarter's worth of data. They are in tough to be sure, and the outcome is unlikely to be good relative to the competition's size and dominance, but I think you need to look at least a year's worth of data, sales, and development to come to any accurate conclusion about whether this attempt at a turnaround will be successful or not. Those that are always "certain" tend to be oblivious to life's uncertainties! Cheers! 1, This is not unexpected information, we have been watching this stock for years. 2, It is not just this quarters numbers, they have forecast an operating loss for next quarter. 3, They will no longer be releasing subscriber numbers which means those numbers will continue to decline. 4, It is on enough just to look at numbers for a year, it is important to understand what those numbers mean. 5, You can always tell who is "certain" by the amount of predictions they make. 1, Investors have been watching Apple for years, but the last year and a half have not been one of glory...that doesn't mean Apple is finished. 2, They've pretty much scrapped much of the business plan for the past decade, and gone in a completely different direction...it's reasonable to assume that they will go through quarters of losses? 3, Probably because they are trying to focus on the longer term, not quarter by quarter. 4, I doubt if Apple's business plan in the first year Jobs took over the 2nd time around was anything but painful...look what happened there. 5, You are most correct here, and there have been more than enough predictions by pretty much everyone...the Apple thread is pretty much indicative of that! As I mentioned earlier, I don't own BBRY and do own APPL. But any supposition from a quarter's worth of numbers smack of hubris. Cheers! Hubris, indeed: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-20/blackberry-to-fire-4-500-write-down-up-to-960-million.html People who work in an industry have a deep understanding of it. They know how to read between the lines. Thinking otherwise is hubris. People in the industry know how the buying process works. knew that as soon RIM announced bad earnings, operators and companies would stop investing in RIM's gear. If you are a CIO and you deployed RIM companywide, then RIM shutdown the product, that would be the end of your career. Industry insiders know that. Simply looking at financials and plotting trend lines is not enough. I don't own BBRY, but do own AAPL. Funny how I got that right, since I'm not in the industry and don't know how the buying process works. You are correct, hubris indeed! Cheers!

Joey's parents should be awfully proud in raising such a fine human being! Cheers!

Can't wait to see what they come up with! Cheers! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-enters-race-build-self-010950299.html

Cheers! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-seize-manhattan-skyscraper-secretly-194800489.html

Early part of this year they thought their investment in Post Media would start paying off. Its been a hole for them with close to 0 ebitda to show for. The investment in that asset continues and these dollars could have been spent growing their 'essential information' business. So a huge opportunity cost as well. This acquisition has been a disaster so far. For all the leverage the company took, it has very little to show for it. But I guess that's the reason why the opportunity exists ... so in a perverse way its good all this is happening. You have to believe in the mgmt at the end of the day. Not that this is the investment I'm talking about, but remember that capex has been higher the last few quarters as they pour money into the Postmedia businesses which were under capitalized in the past. They could easily turn the spigot off and pay their dividend or debt, rather than pour more money into capex. Cheers!

Not a surprise, but I wish there was a bit more detail. Cheers! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/where-americans-rich-poor-spent-193609849.html

22 have settled. I can't believe all they got out of this was $14M in fines. What a joke! Cheers! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-sec-charges-23-firms-153100217.html

You guys constantly amaze me! That's why this is the best value investing forum around...because of the brainiacs and relentless analysis by the board members. One or more of you has gotten the answer right. I won't say who, what, where or when, but I gave no clues and you guys figured it out. Nice...well done! Cheers!