Parsad

Hi Ross, Great find! Thanks! I'll talk to Paul at Watermelon Webworks and see what we have to do from our end. It looks pretty good. Cheers!

Once I hear the word "alpha", I know I'm dealing with an ass, so I usually realize that there is no point arguing. My own investment in my company is up 4,000% over the last five years, so does that mean I'm suddenly a better investor than Buffett and provide more "alpha" than anyone else on the planet? Whatever Tilson is, and I've never liked the guy, he doesn't hide behind an anonymous blog username, posting on here and talking about how he knows so many guys who provide more "alpha." On the weekend, somebody asked Mohnish a question about "alpha", and he said "I've never bothered to learn much about the Greek alphabet". Say what you want about Tilson, McElvaine or whoever else. It doesn't matter at all. They live their life and run their businesses. They are in the public domain and accept any and all criticism. That's more than I can say about you Moore. How someone can compare the results of message board users, who aren't held in check by the same restrictions as fund managers, audit standards, redemption risk, frictional costs, etc and say that it is the same thing, just shows how little you know about comparative analysis. But hey, you know the guys with the most "alpha". Cheers!

Microsoft is increasing their quarterly dividend by 25%. Cheers! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microsoft-Announces-25-prnews-3511207044.html?x=0&.v=1

I know there are a number of boardmembers who play poker, and probably at Full Tilt Poker...ponzi scheme folks! Cheers! http://money.cnn.com/2011/09/20/news/companies/poker_ponzi/index.htm?source=cnn_bin&hpt=hp_bn5

How much leverage? How much concentration? How much in derivatives? How much insider information? Annualized or cumulative numbers by themselves tell you nothing about skill. Cheers!

Moore, did you even read about these guys. They are distressed debt guys, not equity managers. Cheers!

I'm talking about funds that are directly comparable to a specific index. Don't compare China or emerging market funds, or China-heavy, resource-heavy funds to the S&P500. If you do an apples to apples comparison...North American equity funds when compared to S&P500 Total Return, the numbers are about 0.5% of total managers beat by 3% annualized over ten years plus. There are plenty of "superstars" these days, and when you actually rip apart their portfolio...they aren't so super. Cheers!

I had dinner with Mohnish the night before the AGM. Just us and mutual friends. I did ask him one question that I thought I would share with the board. The question was, would he ever consider working for Berkshire or Fairfax? His answer: "Before I started Pabrai Funds, I sent a letter to Buffett, asking if I could work for him. He turned me down. That was the one place I really wanted to work, but it didn't happen. So if the call ever came, it would be like a call to arms and it would be my duty to serve. But other than Berkshire, I would probably not work anywhere else." Cheers!

I have a lot more respect for Mohnish than T2. If Mohnish had the contacts T2 had he would be managing 4-5 Billion (if he so desired). Tilson is a nice guy hes kind of like the guy at the gym that can tell you about all the exercises, the best way to do them, the history all that, but can't even bench press 100 pounds. This is incorrect. Only 0.5% of fund managers beat the index by 3% or more long-term (10 years plus), so out of 10,000 fund managers, you only get 50 that can do that. Of that 50, I would guess less than a third can beat the index by 5% annualized...so now you are down to about 16. Of that, a third can beat the index by 8%...so you are now roughly at 5. And of that, I would guess that 2-3 can beat the index by 10% annualized. Is it any wonder Tilson isn't in that group? But he is in that group of 50. I would actually say Mohnish's profile is as high as Tilsons now. If Mohnish wanted to, he could easily raise $3-4B, but he doesn't want to. He has a long waiting list even though the fund is not open. And if and when he gets the opportunity to put capital to work in a big, big way, he is going to open the doors and let them flood in, but many at that point may not be able to. He's happy doing what he is doing, and he likes his fund at the size it's at. Parsad is Munger an LP @ Pabrai Funds? Not that I know of, but if he was, Mohnish would not tell anyone outside of his family and staff. Cheers!

Why didn't you say hi? There were a bunch of board members there. Cheers!

Short, but interesting article. Cheers! http://games.yahoo.com/blogs/plugged-in/online-gamers-crack-aids-enzyme-puzzle-161920724.html

You're not alone. From the comments I've heard from people over the last couple of years, it seems as though Munger may have wanted to as well, based on those who attended a couple of his annual meetings. Cheers!

I'm the last guy who would defend Tilson, and he does ride a lot of coat-tails, but Mohnish had a very interesting comment this weekend at his AGM that everyone here should take a page from...especially all of those (guilty myself at times) of leveling criticism. Someone asked him what he thought about Gurufocus stalking his 13-F's, and he said that "I've always said I'm a shameless clone. So if they copy me, the more power to them. I think that's perfectly ok." Tilson may have his faults, but his results at T2 are good over the last 12 years or so. His partner Glenn Tongue is actually a really nice guy, and also does much of the research and analysis there, so he also deserves as much credit for running that portfolio. They've already said that this is their "annus horrible" so they aren't hiding behind any excuses. It's how people rebound from adversity that really makes the mark of a good investor or person. Prem had plenty of criticism thrown his way for a few years after TIG and C&F, as did Mohnish when he had his bad 18 months. Critics should probably give Tilson & Tongue a chance to prove themselves. Cheers!

[amazonsearch]The Great Crash of 1929[/amazonsearch] Superb book! I recently re-read it and you could easily substitute financial institutions, hedge fund managers and politicans from the last few years. One of the best books I've read on the psychology behind booms and busts, and how virtually every cycle is similiar outside of duration and depth. Cheers!

However, despite all the gloom, if I see a cheap stock I'm buying. Also, we are entering the stage now of trading existing holdings for better value or similar value, but higher quality. I find that very tough to do, but it has always been very rewarding. Yup. I agree. Finally, we have to ask ourselves what it felt like for a Japanese portfolio manager, investing in domestic stocks, over the last decade. Maybe something like this? For more than 10 years? Phew, that will wear me out. Frankly, I'm loving this. I'm completely at home in an environment when people are panicking...as long as I'm not the one panicking! ;D But the first five years of my fund has been an extraordinary learning experience. Not one year was similar to another...even 2011 is completely different than 2008. And the volatile years were incredibly volatile, which was something to watch in awe actually. Very interesting times indeed! Cheers!

Unless I misread the article, he says that for pretty much a third of the interview...starting on the 2nd page, 3rd paragraph on the right hand column. Cheers!

The good thing is that no one else has been dropped. While it's preferable to kill the body of the snake, chopping heads isn't bad either. Some of these guys are definitely guilty, and Fairfax is going to nail a few of them...progress! Cheers!

He also said that you could not have a good monetary system after leaving the gold standard, yet the United States continued to prosper for the next 70 years. As I said, he's the same as any other economist...right on some things, wrong on others. How do you know who is making the correct macro assessment, unless you are fortunate enough to view everything in hindsight. My point was that Ben Graham's theories do not rely on macro analysis, and they work as long as you remain disciplined. Cheers!

Google's purchase of ITA has lead to Google Flight Search. This thing is so easy to use. It's going to hurt other companies like Expedia, Priceline, etc. Unfortunately, it's only available in the U.S. right now. Cheers! http://www.google.com/flights/

Your responses are always so interesting and none partisan / ideological... No Myth, most of my responses on most things are pretty partisan, but not on economics. I've read so many things over the years and no one person has ever been right about everything. The only thing I know for sure, call it a cult-following or whatever, is that Ben Graham's theories work. It's the only thing in my life that has always worked. And I can't go listening to "possibilities" when I know about something that will ALWAYS work if I remain disciplined and true to it. Nothing in my entire life has made more sense and it's truly the gift that keeps on giving. Changed my whole life! Cheers!

All that interview tells me, is that like every other economist, Hayek can be just as wrong. The U.S. is better off today than they were in 1975, and they were better off in 1975 than they were in 1932. Any boom is always followed by a bust, and depending on the size of the boom, the duration of the bust is directly a result of that. Who knows how long this deleveraging process will take. Monetary policy could help or it could exacerbate...no one knows until we view it all in hindsight. Everyone I've listened to in the last few years has been right about some things and wrong about others. It truly is almost a toss-up on what happens because the macroeconomic environment is just so damn complex. As always, the only thing an investor has control over is the price they pay for securities...buy cheap, sell dear...so simple, so foolproof...yet we never listen. Instead we choose to listen to every other soothsayer...past, present and future! Cheers!

I agree. Steak'n Shake was just a few months away from going under when he began the proxy fight. Cracker Barrel is in no such shape. He's going to have to start pushing hard on how he can improve the company. So far, the only thing he has is compensation, share ownership and "inter alia" a purported allegation of insider trading. ;D Cheers!

Sardar published a letter to the shareholders of Cracker Barrel: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Sardar-Biglari-Issues-Letter-prnews-708520119.html?x=0&.v=1 The first half sounds like he just changed the company name from the old Steak'n Shake letter to shareholders and published it verbatim. The second half is much more original and actually hits the Cracker Barrel board pretty hard. He also fired up the old proxy website: http://www.enhancecrackerbarrel.com/ Cheers!

I have several rules regarding Wall Street. One of them is, "If everyone on Wall Street is saying the same thing, it is either an error or a lie." This applies directly to the European situation and the contention and fear that it is a replay of the US collapse in 2008. The situations are only alike in that they involve debt. In this case, the total amount of Greek debt and the various bonds are known by Greece and the EU. Avoiding default simply requires paying the interest and principle on time. This will happen. In 2008, we had a huge amount of misrated debt instruments, insured only in name and secured by personal debt in the form of the thousands of mortgages -- a morass which could be tracked and analyzed only through the expenditure of great amounts of time and effort. In addition a large percentage of the mortgages were undergoing default in one form or another. In other words, nothing was transparent, except that the underlying assets were collapsing, and, in fact, the rating process appeared, let's say, dubious from a legal standpoint. I think you make some very good points here. The risks and many of the counterparty liabilities were completely unknown in 2008. Paulsen, Bernanke and Geithner found out about exposure, only as the losses mounted and the institutions had to seek assistance, thus the drastic action to have institutions merge. Financial Institution exposure to any of the European soverign nations is known. While there would be unheaval in any default, it would not be any different than Argentina in 2002 or Iceland in 2008. Cheers!

Greece is a whole different ball of wax. I think the other three nations are manageable if their governments do institute strict measures to control spending and liabilities...not unlike Ireland. But what that means is a long deleveraging process, contraction of their economies, higher taxes, reduced services and possibly a stagflationary type of environment for a period of time. It also means protests, pain, political suicide and not saving face. Finally having to make hard choices! Cheers!