Parsad

Bid is now at $530! Cheers!

Hey Folks, The lunch is up to $1,825. That's an incredible bargain compared to what others have paid, plus the stock tip is supposed to be a good one! ;D Cheers!

Hey, I think the hollodeck idea would be awesome. Can you imagine, you could have dinner parties for your friends without them actually coming over to your house and making a mess! No food to cook, no booze to buy, no dishes to wash, no dude throwing up in your bathroom because he drank too much! And you could still enjoy their company as if they were right there. If anyone can do it, Jobs can! Cheers!

I'm not arguing that Apple won't be the same without Steve Jobs. You were trying to make the point that the iPhone 4S is an indication of Apple without Steve Jobs, which makes no sense. I can almost guarantee that the iPhone 4S was nearly 100% (if not completely 100%) complete long before Steve Jobs left the role of CEO. It's also important to realize that Steve Jobs is still with Apple. He is the chairman and is still involved in big decisions. He is just no longer the CEO. It's also important to note that for much of the time Apple developed the original iPhone 4, Steve Jobs was on medical leave and Tim Cook was also the CEO. Hi DCG, no I think you misunderstood my original post. It wasn't meant to slag Tim Cook or anything, or even the iPhone 4S. I was simply stating that the hype around the presentation was so huge, as if they were going to present something so revolutionary like the iPod, iPhone or iPad when they came out. Everybody was expecting at least the iPhone 5, and that it would somehow have technology that would allow us to connect intellectually with our entire network of home appliances, so that all I have to do is think about coffee and my coffee brewer would automatically make me a cup, and add the right amount of cream and sugar. That it would have a new version of Facetime, where you would be able to create a hollodeck and speak to your friends in 3-D hollographic images! It was only the next logical development of the existing iPhone 4, but Apple was able to generate so much buzz that everyone thought it would be ground-breaking. That type of hype will never be the same once Jobs is gone...that was my point, not the actual iPhone, Tim Cook or the stock price. Just that he can sell his own mother for twice what anyone thinks she may be worth, as well as a nice used bridge in Brooklyn! ;D Cheers!

If you want to make a comparison to Berkshire, this would be like Buffet buying stock in Pepsi (or any company) and then retiring, and then in 2 months later Pepsi's stock went down for no real reason and saying 'that's why Berkshire won't be the same without Buffett'. Not even a close comparison. Pepsi's product (excluding Frito-Lay) has basically been the same for the last 80+ years, not unlike Coca-cola. It doesn't take much innovation to hold their marketshare, but a hell of a lot of marketing. No one at Apple is remotely close, and in actuality, there aren't too many people anywhere that are as good as Jobs. They will hold their place for a few years after Jobs, but after that, those hungrier will catch up or take market share away. Think about what happened to Apple the last time Jobs left, and then when he came back. If you don't think one man was responsible for all of that, then you haven't been paying close enough attention. Cheers!

If Bill Gross or Fidelity can manage a trillion dollars, you don't think Buffett would have easily gathered that much in AUM, with his record? I don't think it would have been difficult for him to raise capital after the Buffett Partnerships. But he chose to go a different way because he was concerned about valuations. Cheers!

Munger, what you are excluding from those comments is the cost of capital. The cost of capital for companies to borrow is now at lows not seen since the 30's. Based upon economic conditions, including unemployment, it does not seem as though interest rates are going to rise anytime soon...perhaps for at least a couple of years. If the cost to borrow capital is so low, profit margins can remain elevated for several more years...maybe even a decade if they are borrowing for ten years. How many businesses do you know of that have refinanced their debt for the next 5-10 years at recent rates? How many mortgages are being refinanced today? How many new mortgages are being issued at low long-term rates? How many automobile loans are being issued at low rates? I bet 25-30% of U.S. homeowners on this board, that aren't in penalized mortgages, are refinancing if they qualify. Hundreds of businesses that can qualify, and require long-term capital for their operations, are refinancing every day. Think about banks and how they operate. What is BAC's cost of capital today? What are they lending the money out at? How about Caterpillar? Even if demand is slow, what is their cost of capital today...for the next 5 years? It is true that corporate profits will shrink significantly at some point. But probably not for at least a few years. Cheers!

Which is why I don't understand why he is out there so often adamantly saying there will be no double-dip and betting that the unemployment rate will be below 7% by next year. What is he doing if not forecasting? WEB doesn't really forecast at all. His comments are usually in response to questions people have for him...be it the economy, housing bubble or in relation to investments. In fact, he's almost always adamantly stated that he doesn't spend much time thinking about those things. Btw, absolute wealth is not a good measure of investing success since it does not take into account time in the business. If you adjust for the 10+ year headstart Buffett had on Soros, the fact that Soros has been giving billions away, and the fact that he retired from active investing some years back, Soros's $24b wealth is not too shabby. During his active time investing, I believe Soros had superior performance to Buffett even after 2+20 fees. I would go back and rethink that. Buffett gave up the hedge fund game before he turned 30, including all of the lucrative compensation for $100K a year. If Buffett had continued to run the Buffett partnerships as hedge funds, they would be by far the largest investment funds in the world today, even after his compensation. And I would guess his net worth would have eclipsed the wealth of both Bill Gates at his peak ($100B+) and the Walton family at their peak ($100B+) combined. There were only two core benefits from Berkshire...float and permanent capital...otherwise everything he did within Berkshire, he could have done inside the world's largest hedge fund or private equity fund. Berkshire was actually a constraint on personal wealth creation for Buffett considering how the financial industry developed over the last 40 years. Cheers!

Hi Ben Graham, I read it differently. I read it as he is buying the value of something that today presently is worth $1.00 for 90 cents. And obviously, that item at $1.00 will grow at a certain value for the next 20, 30, 40 years. Basically, he was saying that the sum of the parts or liquidation value (book value, minus any goodwill or intangibles, plus the fair value of those businesses if sold) is worth more than the 90 cents he is paying...let alone what the intrinsic value would be if you include the cash that those businesses would generate or the use of float. Cheers!

I definitely feel some animosity towards me, but the truth is I have been on vacation. I value all the members of this board and would occasionally read posts for many years until I decided to join. I don't have a problem admitting when I am wrong about something either or giving credit where credit is do. For example, I recently wrote to Munger privately who has been right on the Macro while I have been wrong. But that is what makes a market, both sides of the coin. I have been through this before, and am just voicing my opinions and enjoy all comments. Moore, don't perceive it as animosity. I think it's more of just heads butting during a debate...be it my head, your head or someone elses. That's why the forum works. As long as people aren't slagging each other, it's all good! ;D Cheers!

Just wondering how good his economic forecasting record has really been and whether the pulse he holds on the economy is only a coincident indicator and not very useful in forecasting? The better question is why is he richer than all of the other guys combined? He was actually richer than all of them combined 20 years ago! It's because he doesn't pay too much attention to forecasting, and pays more attention to the things he can actually control...the price he pays and his emotions. He's better than all of them at that...hands down! Cheers!

Investors do not buy until they see clarity and feel that prices will continue moving up. It's the foible that keeps on giving. We mentioned in our annual letter this year that house prices are at multi-decade lows, while gold is at multi-decade highs, and where is investment capital flowing to? It's the same thing right now. You have 10-year treasury yields at multi-decade lows, yet investors are fearful of housing and stocks. The psychology never changes. Cheers!

Moore, We've looked at Le Chateau too, as we are finally buying Canadian stocks now as well. My only concern was that they have completely changed their format and direction, moving into more upscale clothes. Their locations also seem to be of better quality, and I would suspect their leases or purchases for those properties would be significantly higher. At higher price points, combined with higher rental/ownership costs, do you think they will be able to increase revenues enough to offset those costs? Incidentally, we did buy two Canadian stocks in the Canadian fund yesterday. The first time we've owned any Canadian stocks other than Fairfax and the basket of REITS we bought in 2008/2009. Cheers!

Here are a few articles discussing Buffett's comments today: In regards to the recent drop in price of BAC shares: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Exclusive-Buffett-not-worried-rb-69698888.html?x=0&.v=3 On the buyback being the equivalent of buying dollar bills for 90 cents: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-04/buffett-likens-buyback-to-getting-dollar-bills-for-90-cents.html On real estate: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-04/buffett-s-homeservices-of-america-buys-alabama-real-estate-firm.html Cheers!

The bid is now at $510 for the book! Cheers!

What the hell is a "true" value investor? ;D You buy something when it is cheap and sell when it is dear. Where you buy on that range is a personal choice and something you have to be comfortable with. The main thing is that you recognize when things are overvalued and when they are undervalued. Does anyone here think that ten years down the road, anything you bought today would not have done significantly better than 10-year treasuries paying 2%? If not, you're a fool! You run risk either way...if you buy now, you could run the risk of being early...if you buy later, you could run the risk of missing the boat altogether. There were quite a few people who were buying early in 2008, and many who missed the rebound altogether in 2009 and 2010. Again, the only concern any value investor should have is am I getting value? Not trying to time the market either way, and not sitting on cash paying 2% for ten years. Cheers!

Are you sure about that? He's known for being incredibly anal and meticulous about design, function, promotion and ease of use. The iPhone's we see today probably won't be as versatile and functional without him, and it is almost certain there won't be the same cult following. At least with Berkshire, the businesses will continue to operate as they do today, since Buffett was not hands-on with the subsidiaries. But Jobs had his hand in everything. Cheers!

After a week of hype, Apple revealed the iPhone 4S...not the iPhone 5 as many expected. Still, other than a slight deflation in the stock price, people are still agog over the iPhone 4S. In my opinion, Steve Jobs may be the greatest showman since PT Barnum, and that is why over time, Apple will never be the same company after he is gone...not unlike Buffett and Berkshire. I really admire this guy. He's truly a great American business story, and there won't be many like him again. Cheers!

Buffett discussed the results of a few of his subsidiaries. Cheers! http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/04/us-berkshire-idUSTRE79357E20111004

Go for it Mark! I think you'll love it...it's a keepsake for any Fairfax shareholder. Cheers!

These guys are in the same league as purse snatchers and very high interest payday loans. Cheers!

Mohnish has put up for auction on Ebay a lunch with him, after he realized that people would actually pay to do so! ;D The proceeds will be going to his charitable foundation "Dakshana". Cheers! http://www.ebay.com/itm/Power-Lunch-Mohnish-Pabrai-/120788288051

VXO close to 50 again. This just seems plain capitulation to me. Maybe we get it for another few months but it is capitulation nonetheless. Who knows. But the more this happens, the more crappy hedge funds will disappear. It's all primarily a fear of what is happening in Europe than what is actually happening anywhere else, including the U.S. We are not ground zero! This is also not a mess of the U.S.' making, but one that Europe never took care of when the credit crisis occurred in 2008/2009. As difficult as it will be to get 17 heads of state to agree on something, they will make a concerted effort to rectify matters once push comes to shove and things get worse. Liquidity is already an issue there, and markets are swooning. The leveraged Europe TARP fund will become a reality after some more pain. Cheers!

By the way, we were buying! Cheers!

I think some people were busy doing research and buying, while some were simply "sighing" after looking at their portfolio value, and some may have started to give up. It will probably get busier on here after the markets close. Cheers!