Parsad

Here is the first quarter report by the AAR. Terrific analysis over the last three-five years. Definite recovery, but mixed rebound. http://www.aar.org/~/media/aar/railtimeindicators/2012-04-rti.ashx Personally, I think things could go either way...corporations are in great shape, but you've got significant deleveraging still occurring and governments are now out of bullets. If they find any more ammunition, it will come with a ton of delay and political back & forth. Many new controversial policy initiatives aren't likely to pass. Expect more volatility, and I would really be approaching things with caution. Buy only when you get something very cheap, and keep some dry powder! Cheers!

I don't think anyone here is suggesting that Dimon should buy back shares when they are not trading at a significant discount. The question is whether buying only below book value is too conservative, given that Dimon threw out 23-24 billion as JP Morgan's normalized earnings. Even if JP Morgan buys back shares above book, if the purchase is done at a share price below intrinsic value, eventually the purchase will be accretive to book value. It might just be that Dimon's estimate of JP Morgan's IV is lower than mine; and his number is certainly more likely to be right than mine! :-) It is interesting that JP Morgan bought back shares at over $45 per share in early 2011, which was greater than book value at the time. It sounds like Dimon has gotten more conservative with buybacks. Re-read that paragraph excerpted by PlanMaestro. Dimon isn't saying he's resistant to buying back shares at $45...just that it's not as effective, nor as appealing an alternative. Basically, that the return on investment at that price isn't high enough to warrant LARGE share buybacks. My example of ITEX was the same as what Dimon was stating. The board wasn't interested in share buybacks when the stock traded at $3.25, but suddenly issues a 1M share tender at $4.20! Go figure! Most CEO's will overpay for their own stock because of their hubris or other reasons...just ask Eddie Lampert. Dimon won't, a la Buffett! Cheers!

I think Dimon has buybacks nailed on the head. He understands exactly how much he should or should not be paying for his own stock. This is a very difficult concept for many CEO's to grasp. I had the same problem with ITEX's board about buybacks. They were insistent on not buying back shares...then changed their mind and said that they would buy back shares...then went all the way and made a tender on 1M shares at a price significantly higher than the market price and above book. The buyback will be accretive to earnings because they aren't making much on the cash, but it won't increase book value per share. They could have bought shares in the open market below $4 for the last six months! Why would Dimon buy back large amounts of his shares unless they are trading at a significant discount? He completely understands that at higher prices it may be accretive to earnings, but that it would not be accretive to book or tangible book. He's smart enough to be patient! Cheers!

Very nice! The weather has been awful in Vancouver in the New Year, and I'm sure Seattle wasn't any better. Although, I'm one of those guys who will never get used to a warm, dry, very green Christmas, so no plans for me to ever move to somewhere warm! ;D Cheers!

Not a fan of debt-laden, capital-intensive businesses. Especially, if they are in a cut-throat business, beholden to strong unions, and have few competitive advantages. There are easier ways to make money! Cheers!

For you long-time Pinnacle shareholders. Never understood the interest in this business...even when Mohnish invested in it. Cheers! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/pinnacle-airlines-files-bankruptcy-035519030.html;_ylt=Anu1MYSsyw28XBoWvPznspmiuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTQ0cTVxNHEyBG1pdANGaW5hbmNlIEZQIFRvcCBTdG9yeSBSaWdodARwa2cDMjEyMzk2Y2ItOTM4YS0zNzk3LTllYTktYWU0Y2UxNjg0YjA5BHBvcwMxBHNlYwN0b3Bfc3RvcnkEdmVyA2Y0ZDZkYzIwLTdjODItMTFlMS04ZmY3LTcxZGU5YmM5NDFiNw--;_ylg=X3oDMTFvdnRqYzJoBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25zBHRlc3QD;_ylv=3

NO! Shortcuts lead to poor results or even worse...catastrophic decisions! Over time, all of the 10-K's you go through will create a significant base of knowledge for you to work with. You will get faster and faster, and out of habit, you will be able to go to exactly the areas you need to examine. But to put it as bluntly as I can, because it is for your own benefit and your future client's benefit: If you don't want to do the work, then it is not for you. Cheers!

Very easy to get around by car, and cabs aren't that plentiful. You might be out of luck on car rentals though. Better hurry to book one! This is the first year that Berkshire has recommended for people to fly into Kansas City and rent a car, because it is getting tougher to find flights or rental cars. Cheers!

Article on Buffett at the Omaha Press Club Show. Cheers! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/buffett-delivers-news-tune-omaha-190758611.html;_ylt=AtAqKjHXIR4MV7eRk0YzqciiuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTQ0ZTdhOHJxBG1pdANGaW5hbmNlIEZQIFRvcCBTdG9yeSBSaWdodARwa2cDNmM5OTY5NWYtYmQwYi0zZjI0LWIyN2UtMjU1NTY4MzdjMGNmBHBvcwMzBHNlYwN0b3Bfc3RvcnkEdmVyAzRjN2UyMWUwLTdjMmUtMTFlMS04NzhmLTZmZjRlZjFmZTkyNA--;_ylg=X3oDMTFvdnRqYzJoBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25zBHRlc3QD;_ylv=3

Yeah, Buffett never took over a company so that he could fire the CEO... NEVER. Oh, wait a minute... That's exactly what he did with Berkshire! Of course, there is going to be some sort of similarity...he's not reinventing the wheel...Buffett did that. But I think much of the managerial skills and behavior is quite different. - Buffett became the buyer of choice for businesses because people wanted to work for him...the sellers came to him, not because they were takeover candidates or challenged in proxy fights. - Buffett still makes only $100K a year - Buffett never changed the company name to Buffett Holdings - Finally, Buffett never put his own self-interest ahead of other shareholders...you were legitimately a partner in Berkshire Hathaway if you owned shares...he didn't make a buck on the back of the remaining shareholders. As far as the resemblance of the annual reports...you can put lipstick on a pig, but it's still a pig! Cheers!

Truly will change the way alot of things are done in the future. Cheers! http://www.cnn.com/video/?hpt=hp_t3#/video/tech/2012/03/31/nr-kaye-3d-printer.cnn

No, it's not Iconix, because he said he was buying it presently and no one knew. So it wouldn't be on his filings or reports. Cheers!

Good for Ajit! Cheers! http://www.forbes.com/sites/robertlenzner/2012/03/30/buffettcharlie-would-gladly-trade-me-for-a-second-ajit/?partner=yahootix

By the way, you can now do "country flags" on your profiles. See the "Country Flags" thead. Cheers!

Ok, that makes sense. 99% and the 1%! ;D Cheers!

No it isn't an eye in a triangle or anything, it is a a capital "A" with a circle around it. What the hell does that mean then? ;D Cheers!

Hi Folks, So I added a modification that will now allow you to show your country flag on your posts. Just go to "Profiles" and select "Forum Profile". Half way down should be a box that asks for your country. Just select your country and then click "save" at the bottom of the page. Thanks to Eclecticvalue for the idea! Cheers!

Rkbabang, It's a dollar sign on the "Ying", but what is that on the "Yang?" Is that the symbol for the Illuminati? ;D Cheers!

Baupost's suit against BAC has been dismissed for now by the courts. Cheers! http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-29/bank-of-america-s-countrywide-wins-walnut-place-dismissal.html

Good idea! I'll see if there is a mod or built-in feature that will allow us to do that. Cheers!

Very, very bullish! He's 85% invested and looking for more cash because he's found many things he really likes. He said that in 2000 he was 85% cash and today he's 85% invested and almost all of it is in U.S. equities. Larry said there is something he held five years ago that they did really well on, and are in the midst of buying as much as they can. He said that mutual funds have limitations of 10% in any one investment, which he is totally opposed to, and would be happy to put 20% into some ideas. He mentioned the name John (maybe spelled Jon too) and then said I shouldn't say too much because we are buying it hand over fist. But it is growing at 20-25% a year and will for the next 5-10 years. From what I could dig up it looks like it could be one of two things: DTSI or Clear Channel. Anyone else have any ideas? He's still very high on Six Flags and Coinstar as well. He only had an hour, but he said there's another ten companies I can talk to you about. Then the handler from Clarington said we've got to get you to another meeting. He was very nice though as always, and was sticking around to talk to people, but they were putting his coat on for him and getting him out the door. Not sure why Larry never just had someone buy out his fund and seed him with say $150M in a hedge fund. His style is better suited to a fund, rather than a mutual fund. He did say one thing that you don't always hear. He said he likes things that are really simple to understand, because often "He just doesn't know!" He said the industry is full of egotistical managers who will never just say "I don't know", because their pride and ego won't let them. He said "At the end of the day, I'm just human, and there are plenty of things I don't know." Cheers!

Looking good! Cheers! http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-29/north-american-rail-freight-carloads-for-march-24-table-.html?cmpid=yhoo

A friend of mine is the vice-president of investments for a financial planning firm in Vancouver, and he arranged for Larry Sarbit to speak in their office this morning. I got to tell you, and I've known this for years, but he's a terrific guy and a great manager. The first thing that gives it away was that this lady walks up to him and says "Larry, I heard you speak several years ago..." and before she could finish he says "My sympathies!" I couldn't stop laughing! It was one rapid fire joke after another while he gave a terrific presentation on why he's been bullish on U.S. equities for the last three years. For example, he talked about his holding in Coinstar and he said: "Do you think that anyone walks up to the dvd rental at Safeway, looks at the Coinstar box and says..."I'm sorry, I really wanted to rent a movie today, but Greece is having some real problems." Of course not, it's so damn ridiculous! We look for businesses that have almost actual coupons attached to them based on their free cash flows. Businesses that will continue to grow and have durable, competitive advantages." Anyway, here is his updated performance track record, as he got chased out of Investor's Group and AIC for holding too much cash. By the way, he said that he thought starting his own firm was the best thing after all the problems he had at IG and AIC, "but then he realized he hated the manager!" Cheers! Larry_Sarbit_Performance_Record_-_1988_to_2011.pdf

When reporters or analysts start talking about standard deviation to define risk, I usually want to kick them in the butt so hard, that I'll never find my shoe again! ;D Cheers!

I'm surprised that in about 11 years of running this forum, we've never asked this question! ;D I had a pretty good idea how many people were represented from different regions, but actually seeing the different cities and then sometimes even putting it to a nickname was pretty illuminating. Also very humbling that so many people participate and enjoy this forum. Thanks everyone! Cheers...and I literally mean it waving a glass of beer to you all...well actually its a sealed novelty bottle from a craft brewery in Vancouver!