Parsad

The black line is 1974-84. The orange line is current inflation overlapping the 1974-84 range. While it seems to mimic the 70/80's economic environment, this is neither here nor there. I remember all of these graphs overlapping past periods back before and after the GFC. Yet, we saw tremendous government intervention that totally changed the direction of the current period relative to the period compared. It's why Fairfax and many distressed value manager's performance looked so poor over the last decade as they were expecting a stagnating period, not growth as it became with all of the easy money and low interest rates. History never repeats but may rhyme. Analysts on both sides constantly try to make it rhyme to their tune! Cheers!

My Grandma passed away in September, and I miss her dearly. But I have to say, I'm going to miss these two farts (Buffett & Munger) nearly as much when their time comes. Especially Charlie's straight forward, take no prisoners vernacular! Cheers!

Quants Forced to Shed $225B in Short Positions. Cheers! https://finance.yahoo.com/news/quants-forced-shed-225-billion-221532432.html

He also missed Walmart. Doesn't mean he didn't understand retail. You don't usually catch all of the fish, including the big ones! Cheers!

You can also determine an investment's intrinsic value by doing a liquidation analysis...sum of the parts. Graham, Buffett, Munger, they all talk about that too. Not just DCF. DCF is Buffett's simple analogy for how corporate valuations can also be done similar to fixed income analysis to determine a fair price to pay. But it's not the only way to calculate intrinsic value. Cheers!

That's my whole point! It's arbitrary like crypto. But at least gold has some utility and would have some underlying intrinsic value...even if it's a lot lower. Crypto has no underlying value, no assets backing it, no utility, no revenues, nothing! You can't even enjoy looking at it. It's a much lesser form of gold, collectibles or art! Cheers!

You don't have to invest in everything to do well! By the way, you guys do know that Buffett's best friend is a guy named Bill Gates? If you think Buffett doesn't know about technology, you're probably greatly mistaken. Also, Munger was way ahead of everyone when he invested in BYD...well before the Tesla wagon jumpers joined and the technology gurus espousing green energy, etc. Buffett also made 3,000% on his BYD investment that he bought 13 years ago! Two old farts who are always underestimated! Cheers!

Oh Elon! That was so God damn funny. I'm crying with laughter at my desk! Cheers!

That's not an accurate description of the asset. You live in your house. It is made up of materials that are of value. You can rent your house to others and generate cash flow. The land underneath your house has value because other people want to build houses on that land and it is scarce. Even if there was no house, the land could be used to grow crops and sell in the market. You could tear down the house and put up a commercial building and generate rental income and run a business from it. You could turn it into a parking lot and generate fees. There are a multitude of ways to generate cash flow and the underlying asset has a base intrinsic value. Very different than cryptocurrencies. Cheers!

Losing money is losing money...no difference. Personally, I wouldn't touch BABA or any Chinese stock...just too much political risk for my taste. The end game for both BABA and BTC have not been written yet. Charlie made his bet based on the cash flow generating power of the business. The price a buyer pays for BTC is not based on any calculation, but simply what the market bears or suggests it is worth. Cheers!

Well that's that! I'm not touching BTC if you're equating it with crabs or herpes! SharperDingaan says bitcoin like gonorrhea...rhea today, gonor tomorrow! Cheers!

Like rap music! I thought rap music was a fad 35 years ago. Got that one wrong in a big way! Cheers!

Nah, gold is not useless. Apart from jewelry, we use it in computers, electronics, dentistry, medicine, aerospace, glassmaking, architecture/construction, etc. It has significant utility value unlike BTC. Cheers!

110% married to it! Ingrained in my mind like breathing! Other than the Carolina Panthers, those are speculative assets. Investing is something else...as stated, the discounted cash flow over the lifetime of the investment. You could come to a reasonable valuation for the Carolina Panthers as well based on discounted cash flow. Doesn't mean that the marketplace won't attribute all sorts of valuation to it...both higher and lower than what the discounted cash flow analysis suggests. Investing, when done properly, provides a margin of safety and minimizes the loss of capital. Nothing wrong with speculation...just don't confuse it with investing. Cheers!

+1! Cheers!

Beanie Babies mania lasted about 10 years...prices went up more than 20 fold. Manias have no set time limit...they blow when they blow. Not saying that BTC is a Beanie Baby Bubble or Tulip Mania, but it certainly hasn't proven to be a real replacement for fiat currency at this point either. If anything, it's proven that it isn't a useable replacement. Cheers!

Not a ponzi...not taking from Tom to pay Harry...just speculative like art, jewelry, collectibles, gold, etc. But you are right. Investors aren't missing anything here if they don't invest in crypto. There are multiple assets classes that people can create wealth out of. You don't have to invest in everything. Circle of competence remains the defining reference point for successful investing. Cheers!

Yup! I remember at one AGM, Munger told the story of how a young fellow came up to him and thanked him for everything he's done and the lessons he's passed on. He then goes on to ask Munger: "I really admire everything you've done, but is there any way I can do it faster?" Cheers!

Fairfax knew the company well because they were both under a similar type of short attack by hedge funds, analysts and journalists. There was some overlap in the players involved as well. Whereas Patrick Byrne was this bombastic, confrontational type leader, Prem was a quiet, optimistic, stick to the plan type leader. Yet both had become targets. Sam Mitchell who was on the core investment team at Hamblin Watsa was old friends with Jack Byrne of Geico fame. So he also knew Patrick. I believe Sam was the one who initiated the interest on behalf of Hamblin Watsa. Francis Chou also took a significant stake and naturally was close to Prem and Fairfax after being a vice-president there for so long. Between the two, I think they had close to a 20% stake combined...11-12% at Fairfax and 6-7% at Chou Funds. Sam actually sat on the board of Overstock.com for a while, but Patrick was so erratic and had a hard time focusing on one thing that they eventually parted ways and sold their position. I can't remember exactly when Francis sold out, but I believe he held on longer than Fairfax simply because he thought it was cheap. Me personally, I've known about Overstock.com almost as long as I've known about Fairfax or Amazon.com! I've traded in and out of Overstock.com probably 5-6 times in the last 15 years...making money every time it got cheap and selling when it started to get pricey. The best trade was in March 2020 when everyone was panicking and Overstock.com fell dramatically. I bought a ton of shares at $2.99 and a ton of $7.50 LEAPs when it was around $5. I made 8-10 times on the $2.99 stock and 15-20 times on the LEAPs. But I actually sold too early! If I held on till it hit the high of $120 per share, I would have made 40 times on the stock and like 80-100 times on the LEAPs! I was kicking myself after still making a ton of money! But as a value investor, you are really stretching yourself ethically and strategically when things start to get speculative. It's just not in my nature to hold on to something when valuations go crazy! Rule #1: Don't Lose Money! Rule #2: Don't Forget Rule #1! Cheers!

There are tons! You would have to do your own research and dig deep into each one or find a niche you want to exploit. I'm not smart enough, so that's why I just buy OSTK and let Pelion manage the portfolio for Medici Ventures. I'm not paying for it, so I don't have to worry...it's essentially a free call option. I'm just paying for the online retail business by buying OSTK. Cheers!

Pretty damn funny! Cheers!

For the most part...no. Not that it couldn't happen. It's just that crypto and these trading platforms in many cases avoided registration, so they never became qualified investments for most institutions, funds and accounts. If major developed nations were stupid enough like Venezuela, then yes, this would have been more like the Financial Crisis rather than Enron. I'm also not sure the tide is now out far enough to expose everyone who has been swimming naked. There is probably still a little more fallout coming. Maybe a bunch of smaller fish than FTX...but still more to come! It is actually a good opportunity to add blockchain companies and businesses to your portfolio if you want that exposure. The reason being is that this is probably going to force developed nations to bring all crypto and blockchain companies into full compliance and regulatory oversight over the next couple of years. Cheers!

When I started this thread, the question was meant as a rhetorical question. Markets may move sideways for years...we don't know...no one knows. But if markets offer volatility and cheap investments...swing! And then when those investments are no longer cheap...sell! That's it! No trying to figure out the top and bottom, because markets will do irrational things for longer or shorter than you ever expect. Cheers!

This press release hasn't aged well! Cheers! https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ftx-and-kevin-oleary-announce-long-term-investment-and-spokesperson-relationship-301352189.html

You can go to the bank with the death certificate...the bank will also make attempts to contact you for various reasons. With wallets...it's gone baby...gone! The only comparable would be old school Swiss bank accounts. They wouldn't contact you either. Cheers!