Fat Pitch

Anyone getting the feeling common will get all the upside while jr prefs are only capped at par? The way the securities are trading seems to acknowledge this possible outcome.

More and more delays while central banks inject more and more liquidity in the global markets. The time value of money never stops. This investment has turned out to be extremely high on opportunity costs, but should eventually pay off... Lucky to get a IRR of 15% on this when factoring in the delays. What a shit show :o

You'll see the value of Bitcoin once it reaches 1-2 Trillion in market cap. Massive amounts of capital can freely flow globally without much price slippage and no middle men telling you can't do that.

I bought into the presale of LEO tokens since I saw the mispricing. Now I think the market is correctly valuing these tokens when you factor in DOJ pending action. If you feel comfortable completely ignoring the regulatory risks then this is basically a 20x PE unregistered security with start up growth and instant liquidity... not a bad deal. The one take away is the pending S curve growth from decentralized exchanges once privacy/scalability rolls out. The upside from BTC/ETH is probably the best risk adjusted bet in this entire space.

The reason for using gold is that everyone has always used gold. This is something that Mises espoused in The Theory of Money and Credit, but not to get too nerdy but the alternate theory is that money is a system of clearing and settlement of societal obligations because reciprocity only works in very small bands and there is no other way (pre-writing) of deciding who owns what to whom so we use money and we owe it back to society. Other people use other kinds of money. If I tried to buy a house from a Yap tribesman with gold, they wouldn't take it, preferring instead their far superior giant rocks with a hole in the middle. So, if you think about Bitcoin as as using the underlying blockchain technology to build secure applications on (like for transfering title to property or managing digitial permissions), instead of as money, I wonder why I would pick the most expensive version of something to underly applications if the others are exactly as secure. If you think about it as money (in the alternate clearing and settlement theory) why would a society switch from one system to another? Do you know of any country that has done so besides in an economic collapse where they knock a few zeroes off the bills and rename the currency? I don't own bitcoin but I wouldn't short it either. To me it's genuinely something where it's too early to tell. Why would you build applications on top of Bitcoin outside of finance? The value proposition is the security of the ledger, monetary policy and rapidly growing liquidity. This is software eating away at the legacy financial system.

A blockchain is nothing more than a database configuration. The secret sauce is that this database is permissionless and anyone can enter and leave the network. What everyone on the outside don't understand is that in order for this network not to be sybilled/DDOS/attacked into oblivion it must be "secure" and you only achieve that by having "value". So when you hear someone mention blockchain and not Bitcoin or "private" blockchains... you can immediately discard them as idiots. I will sell my shares the moment they do that. Happy to do so - at least until someone changes my mind. ;) I'm open btw to the idea that this technology could lead to something useful, but I don't see why that makes Bitcoin a good investment. Maybe you can enlighten me and the other skeptics around here. I agree, the fact that people use blockchain and Bitcoin interchangably makes me doubt that it will work out well for most people speculating in this. It's like saying "what do you mean "Toys.com" won't make me rich? The internet will change everything." I'm sure blockchain will be used in a lot of new and interesting ways , but that doesn't mean that Bitcoin or any other particular crypto asset will be a big winner. And just because some of them will be big, doesn't mean that I'll be able to pick the right one when lots of computer and math whizzes are trying to pick the winners too and they understand it better than me. If you can make money this way, mazel tov! You deserve it.

Right keep grinding those hours away for that +5% annual alpha while missing out on the largest paradigm shift in global finance ;) I will sell my shares the moment they do that.

I bet Berkshire will acquire a position in Bitcoin and everyone here will lose their minds as to why.

People have shown evidence of aerial phenomenon. Many from the Pentagon, NASA, Soviet generals, Royal Air force officers, Mexican government, Brazil, etc. Here's some events you can dig further: 1. Roswell - The air-force literally released a statement to the press saying a winged aircraft was recovered which was retracted days later. The sergeant that posed for pictures showing a weather balloon to reporters after the 1st story retraction later said it was indeed a winged aircraft (well after retirement). 2. UFO sightings over Washington DC in 1952 - this lasted for a week or two and recorded on radar, photos and motion picture. 3. Russian probe mission to Phobos - images were retrieved of a cylinder shaped object captured in visual and infrared cameras. Final images from probe was withheld from public for 20 years until dissolution of the Soviet Union which then the photo was leaked out. 4. Sightings at British air force bases which their nuclear missiles were disabled and rendered non operational. So yes there's enough in the public realm to form the opinion we aren't alone and are being observed. We are literally being spoon fed now by the current disclosures.

I did name the book if you read more slowly next time... Below is the link to Amazon but you can find a PDF copy or HTML for free. Seriously everyone needs to read this book before even forming an opinion on UFOs/extraterrestrial life. https://www.amazon.com/Day-After-Roswell-Philip-Corso/dp/067101756X You lost me at "alleged whistle-blower" and then again at "all high ranking officials confirm space craft crash." Not to mention you forgot to name the book :P _________________________________________________________ To be honest, I don't buy the whole alien thing. One it relies too heavily on the pre-supposition that we understand how life began. 1.) We don't know how life started. 2.) We don't know how, why, or where the big bang happened. Where was this floating speck of dense matter? So how can we assume other life exists based on mathematical probability based on a hypothesis that isn't testable and without a proof? Just because mathematical odds can be applied to something, doesn't mean that it will or has happened. Especially once you remove all pre-suppositions and go based on empirical data only. Even if you believe that life came about because some magic mud got struck by lightening creating a single celled organism (1 in a gazillion chance) and then on top of that, the single celled organism, somehow "learned" to function, replicate, evolve, etc. So if you take the odds of life beginning and then the odds of that life surviving and then the odds of life evolving I just don't buy the alien argument. Because it's all based on something we have ZERO knowledge of. Personally I think there has to be something "greater" than ourselves. If I had to pick some Sci-fi "hypothesis", I think it's much more likely that we are just some simulation being run by some neck-bearded nerd. And all we are is sentient AI which is operating within a set of parameters (Laws of Physics, etc) of a program. I once heard someone say: "Mathematics is the language of God." perhaps it is.

Has anyone here read up on the Roswell crash? There's a book you can download for free that talks about it by an alleged whistle-blower: The Day After Roswell Book by Philip J. Corso You literally have all the high ranking officials who were present at the site all confirming it was a space craft that crashed. The evidence is too overwhelming at this point. Even the declassified Project Blue Book docs has a sketching of the wing craft that crashed in Roswell.

https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ethereum-20-research-breakthroughs-already-figured-out-says-vitalik-buterin-201905221520 This is a big statement by Vitalik, creator of Ethereum. Having followed all the research development for Ethereum 2.0 the past 18 months, I feel these nerds can actually pull off creating a scalable trustless settlement layer for the entire financial system stack and anything else that requires automated escrow.

With all the dragnets sniffing out IP addresses and VPN backdoors... yeah you are being tracked unless you use isolated hardware with Qubes/your own operating system. The pool of candidates with that level of opsec knowledge is very small so 99% are tracked. IP addresses are very easy to hide/fake. You can't track people by IP address. EDIT: That is poorly worded as you can track most people by IP address. You can't track someone who doesn't want to be tracked by IP address.

Chain analysis software tracks the IP address that broadcasts the transactions and the fiat on-ramp points mostly KYCs all individuals entering the system. So yes the world does know who are behind most of these wallet addresses. Great thing is no transaction "disappears" like they do in the current banking system. Can't launder funds through BTC like you can with HSBC.

BTC offers the most value to the criminal element? Are you ignorant of the fact that all transactions are forever logged on the public ledger for the world to see? The 21M cap is based on the client program parameters and any modification to it causes you to get forked off the global network.

Anyone who is skeptical about blockchain usecase needs to look at https://codaprotocol.com/ Using recursive zk-snarks allows for the blockchain database to be a constant size (a few KB) while maintaining everyone's account balances and smart contract state. Now that these systems can scale by orders of magnitude how will this change global trade?

Fairholme has burnt all their credibility. If Bruce has any sense of fiduciary duty to his investors he'd close up shop and stop incinerating their capital.

2019 is shaping up to be one heck of a year. Rolled the gains from crypto to jr prefs and common. I don't think the treasury will want to write another check to these entities and will instead want to receive a check for infrastructure spending and 2020 campaigning.... Good luck all ;)

Well the starting portfolio in 2017 was roughly 75k USD then factor in the taxes and you'll be at ~1/3rd of that number. As for finding opportunities there's 2 ways to look at it. If I continue to fish around the same holes I've been doing then yes the capital becomes a drag. On the other hand now I have capital to fund a developer team to grab the market opportunity that many aren't seeing at the moment so now I become the market in a way. Blockchain infrastructure is unlocking new ways to do business and provide a better experience for the user, but you gotta find your spots. There's always the traditional capital markets, but putting in the effort to get +7% alpha over the S&P500 index is horrible ROI on time invested when you consider the greenfield opportunity. LOL. Get me some of this. That’s also after 12000% last year so is this year humbling after a year like that? The portfolio must be well over a $100m now. Is that making it harder to find opportunity?

~700% for the year. 20% allocation in applications building on blockchain infrastructure knocked it out of the park. Not much alpha from stocks this year (3%).

It’s been nearly a year since I dumped most of my crypto holdings in that speculator bubble. In this carnage we are seeing the Netscape moment emerging in the EOSIO ecosystem. Crypto native business models have been springing up in the last few weeks. The collective whole of the ecosystem is generating $400k/day in revenues with very little capital raised (maybe 3-4mm in total). Compare this to Ethereum which raised billions and have literally nothing to show for it. There’s still growing pains with the EOS network, but I expect massive increases in scaling in the next 6-9 months as the infrastructure matures. Some early indications I’m noticing are that the ARPU appear to be 100x higher than traditional app channels (Apple App Store). This may be the benefits of having a native payment rail built into the app and zero user fees. I think the big disruptive nature of this tech is the ability to monetize very niche sectors that wasn’t possible before. So I wouldn't pay attention to the "currency" aspect of blockchains, but what business models can be deployed that wasn't possible before. There's still the issue of regulations, but I think in the end they will be pounding sand.

Aberhound sounds deranged so I'm gonna ignore him. As for how to value crypto, you gotta frame it in a way that makes sense to you. For me I merely asked myself: "What would you pay for an open source Visa protocol that anyone on planet Earth can use to transact cheaply, safely and no middleman to block the transaction" This will open up global trade on levels that are unimaginable for many people. You should look at solid projects with a good development team behind it, but the valuations at the moment look insane even for myself. So I just focus on currencies that can address a % of the M1 global money supply. If I went back 500 years and told the folks that Church and State will be separated I would be labelled a heretic and burned at the stake. Today I'm telling everyone that Money and State will be separated. Luckily for me I'm not burning at a stake ;) How much has your life changed after a 12000% year? I stopped counting my crypto gains as Buffett says it is better not to watch the ticker and to avoid the noise. I missed XRP so probably less. I continue to add on big dips like just after Christmas and just before Thanksgiving. My life changed little as I became even more of a value investor. I still drive around my $2000 car. I stopped drinking booze and coffee this year when I realized they were both interfering with my thinking and so I could buy more crypto. That has created a far better change in my life than some additional wealth and one unexpected side effect of stopping all drinking and coffee is that my mild but worsening heart disease went away soon afterwards. Does anybody know why? (My impression was that the few drinks a week of wine or beer that I drank had the biggest effect). People spending money on coffee and booze should reconsider as the real cost of a $5 coffee is something like $5000 $5X10X10x10 by 2020 and probably many health effects as well so many who are poor, struggling or sickly in 2020 will often have only themselves to blame. The fear of loss being the #1 excuse not to buy is accordingly irrational. (And the #2 excuse don't know how ended when the public listings became available). This fall I have started to run into customers who are willing to pay in crypto which I always request for international customers. Many businessmen now realize the benefit of using crypto to pay cross border payments. It is nice to be paid in crypto and have it double and redouble soon thereafter as I am more motivated to do the work. I hold BTC, LTC, BCH, FUEL and ETH. I calculate the average daily compounding rate and generally buy that (which generally tells you which token enjoys the fastest rate of adoption). I also try to keep diversified between cryptos by buying tokens that are expected to go up when the competing token goes down like BTC and BCH and I stop buying when I get above my planned weighting due to massive gains. Of my coins currently FUEL and LTC having the fastest daily average compounding followed by BCH, ETH and BTC. I look for gains of at least 1% per day. I have been loading up on LTC on this big dip partly because I expect it to enjoy the soonest and greatest increase in the rate of adoption and partly because I doubled my planned weighting. XRP easily exceeded this average daily compounding but my bias against a banker's coin makes me irrational. What the hell is daily compounding rate? I'm bullish on crypto (and I told myself I'd be nicer in the New Year), but you quite literally sound like an insane person. This is not value investing - this is venture capital investing. Low probability but +expected value asymmetric bets (long term) mixed with frontrunning a very inefficient and illiquid market ahead of the likely inflow of larger volume (short term). The value of any of these tokens is a total guess - I'd be curious to hear your thoughts on actual valuation of any of these aside from bitcoin. (Bitcoin is the only coin I have a thesis for: flight-to-safety store-of-value which cannot be tampered with by any government - it will replace gold which itself is valued based on the same properties that bitcoin has, but does not have the immutable decentralized and non-tamperable aspects of bitcoin; first mover advantage will be solidified when wall street begins trading bitcoin first). I like ETH, but how do you value the token ether? I'm in it to frontrun the transition to proof of stake (lowering velocity -> increasing value) and wall-street liquidity inflow - and its simply event driven investing. But long term what is the value of an Ether? What is the value of a FUEL? What is the value of a LTC? Why LTC instead of Zcash instead of Monero instead of IOTA?

If you guys don't know who Roger Ver is, I'd suggest you look up his story. I've heard about Bitcoin in 2013 and passed it off as a fad (no reading or digging in). In late 2016 I came across it again and realized it hasn't went away so I decided to dig into it. This was the first time I've read the white paper which can be found here: https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf With my libertarian background this whole concept of money not controlled by central banks but by math really opened my eyes. Immediately I knew this is going to be big. The creator of bitcoin said it best "If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry." The only reason I went in big was after the Perry decision in the GSE lawsuit. How can such a corrupt ass court not see the Constitution was violated in the treatment of the preferred shareholders? This was my f the system and gov't moment and decided to go all in on crypto. If you don't hold your private keys, then you have no property rights. What convinced me to hold was simple, there's trillions of dollars in wealth that's stored off shore because people don't trust their governments. This money will flow into crypto, there's no doubt in my mind about it. How much has your life changed after a 12000% year? Congrats, that’s awesome. +1 on congrats. How did you convince yourself to continue to hold when it started reaching significant amounts? And how did you convince yourself to go all in on crypto to begin with? I've been convinced that crypto was going to be huge and life changing since 2014 yet I never put in significant amounts do to the risk and due to the fact that I didn't think it was going to go exponential until sometime in the 2020s. I thought I had time and I didn't want it sitting as dead money until then. I'm not complaining my crypto gains have been incredible, but they could have been massive because I invested far too little even when I knew better. One thing that is good though is that I invested so little that I'm still holding and am not under pressure to sell. Congratulations for not only having the insight, but for having to courage to put your money where your thinking was.

Went from living with my parents to quitting my job and purchasing a beach house with no mortgage. I can now pursue my passion without worry. How much has your life changed after a 12000% year?

~12,000% 1. XRP 2. XMR 3. BCH 4. NEO I was heavily invested in the GSE's pref at the start of the year, but the Perry beat down got me to switch gears. Went full out crypto... Now I have a sizable position back in the GSE prefs since the risk/reward is more favorable.