bizaro86

Things I think are under earning: Labour - corporate profits very high vs wages Disney - content library monetization via streaming service a meaningful catalyst in 2019+ Canadian oil/gas - WCS and AECO spreads should both come in, even without new pipelines

@thepupil probably the best post on the board for awhile. Thanks! I agree with you on pretty much all of these, and am long FRPH and NYRT for the same reasons. I wish the Hawaiian ground leases were separate and not run by someone who will do a bad job. Honestly a bank trustee to cash cheques and send dividends would be enough. Under those circumstances I would allocate huge there at anything over 4% cap. That's a generational wealth asset.

I won't be writing any puts. If I could at a reasonable cost I'd buy 5yr $20K calls and 5yr $5K puts. I'm almost positive that in 5 years BTC will either be way above $20k (like $100k+) or way less than $5k (like close to or equal to $0). That does seem like the best (hypothetical) way to play bitcoin.

I'd be willing to pay up for a 5 year put at $5k, but wouldn't sell a naked call because the scenario where I'm wrong BTC has no upper limit. The seller of a $5k put has a maximum of $5k downside. I would definitely be willing to sell a BTC call at $15k paired with a long call at $20k. (Bear call spead)

I'm sure there will be some winners with crypto, and if you pick them successfully you'll make money. That's probably true with pot as well, and given the level of regulation that can be expected I think tobacco is a better comparable than avocados. I own neither, and have no intention of buying either. I might put together a basket of shorts at some point, some of the ones that have no actual business or prospects and are just riding hype.

The whole basis of this thread is flawed. You are supposing that there will be long term winners in this space to brag about. I disagree. Pot is an agricultural product that is easily grown by anyone (even by yourself in your own garden). That is like saying you are going to get rich investing in tomatoes. Unless the government steps in and creates an artificial monopoly (i.e. licensing only certain companies to grow and/or sell it), then I don't see what competitive advantage any one grower or seller has over any other. I'm sure there will be name brands with proprietary strains and pretty packaging, but that is a long way off and impossible to predict. I think the safest long term bet to profit from pot would be Altria, probably not a bad idea actually. I don't think that's what he's saying at all. Crypto was the #1 performing asset class of 2017, but Canadian marijuana stocks were probably number 2, with many/most up hundreds of percent. As just one example, TSX:WEED is a 10 bagger in the last 18 months or so. Of course, its market cap was unreasonably large before that 10X, and at $7 billion is absurd, its clearly a bubble. But there are people who are absolutely convinced that everyone is going to start using marijuana recreationally, and that these companies are the next MO because of it. Maybe there will be a couple of winners out of this (probably) but I don't see a way to find them in advance, and the valuations assume that all the companies will be big winners, but that's absurd. Very much like crypto, actually. Maybe one or two coins will work out as long term stores of value, but the world doesn't need hundreds of crypto-currencies, so most will flame out. Plus, the companies changing from ice-tea (for example) to crypto probably don't have a durable competitive advantage in crypto currency, so the fact their stocks are going up on a name change is absurd. Basically, there are two big bubbles right now, and we have a thread with people discussing their big gains in one. Surprising that no one has big gains on the other to brag about. I was the only one who admitted owning any of them, and I only had it as a merger arb position. The two segments don't seem that different to me in bubblyness, so I'd be surprised if we had buyers of one but not the other on the forum.

Thanks! That's actually hilarious, as I've owned Bri-Chem for a couple of years, I first saw it mentioned here: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4021454-bri-chem-trades-cheaply-even-75-percent-move-2-months

Well that was fast. I sold my CMED today for a bit over $37. My consistent history is to sell way too soon on speculative nonsense stuff, so this may be an entry signal, I'm not sure. I think I'll go invest my ill gotten gains in a net-net, if anyone has any suggestions.

Thanks, I appreciate that! I have a reflexive anti-bubble attitude, and had a really hard time putting on the merger arb trade, even though I would have done it without question had the companies in question sold industrial machine parts or something. I'm trying to be open minded about special situation opportunities without buying into speculative mania, which is a surprisingly hard line to walk. I suspect those put buyers are paying a rational price for the puts, but its tough because with volatility so expensive you need to get the timing right. Maybe bear call spreads?

I had a short CMED long HIP merger arbitrage that made a ridiculous return when HIP went up 5x in a week after they got a regulatory approval. I closed the position with HIP at $2, so missed the top but pretty happy that my 15% spread turned into a 4x. Sized it small like all arbs, so won't move the needle too much. Now have a small CMED long position just over $24, since the Aurora offer should put a bit of a floor at $24, and I think Aurora can raise their bid with more funny money. Very speculative and small. Gives me something to do when I'm waiting for actual value ideas. I owned Village Farms when all they grew was tomatoes as a value play, and sold on the initial double after the announcement they were switching to marijuana.

I have various dealings with all 5 big Canadian banks, and over time I seem to be migrating more and more of it to RBC. Mostly happens when one of the others screws something up, something that has gone smoothly in the past at RBC...

I would echo the comments that I don't like the choices. I'd put a write in vote for IBKR.

Part of it is the differential. Many companies on the list don't sell WTI, they sell WCS.

I think it's reasonable to expect market value as a multiple of intrinsic value to go up though, simply because the BRK investor base (including WEB) have been talking about P/B for so long.

Heaven forbid they trim down management expenses a bit as the business shrinks.

Yes, definitely start a VVI thread. Your write-up was very good, and its definitely an interesting company. I have had it on my watch list for years.

I love VVI, and have for some time, especially the former Brewster businesses. I'm concerned about two things though, and would be interested in hearing any comments. The first is where we are in the cycle. I can't shake the idea that this might be a cyclical dressed up as a growth company, and that buying after a big economic expansion might be a mistake. I would love to hear why I'm wrong on this one. Recent acquisitions don't seem strong to me. AV seems more likely to commoditize than booth/event management, especially as tech gets cheaper. I would have preferred they continued to outsource. Also, flyover seems like a way weaker attraction than something like the Banff Gondola, so you're diluting the business quality. Flyover has no moat, anyone can buy a motion simulator and rent some space, but the government isn't likely to rent out another mountain in Banff for a gondola. 100% moat vs no moat. Anyway, would love to hear why I'm wrong on this, as pursuit (why rename it?) Is a business I would like to buy and hold forever.

If that was the end, I don't think you'd get many complaints. But the fact of the matter is that the rest of Canada pays higher taxes to pay for excess spending in Quebec. Both Federal spending well in excess of receipts from QC, as well as direct transfers through equalization. If your choices only impacted your taxes, I wouldn't care. But as an Albertan paying higher than otherwise taxes for QC social programs while QC environmentalists block my livelihood.... And when we have to pay for the environmental disaster that you Albertans refuse even to acknowledge... And if we talk about historical equalization, you have received money before oil, and if we talk about the stupid choice you make when you have surplus, you send little 100$ check to all your citizen so they will buy rationally more F150, and when oil price plunge, you don't have anything because you are too stupid to plan that it is a cyclical commodity...come on with the Quebec bashing, I can bash Alberta a lot if you ask me too. The amount of money Alberta received in the distant past is so nominal as to be insignificant. Alberta's govt sent cheques to everyone a couple of times with surplus oil revenue from our resources. Quebec sends 100s of dollars to its citizens every year in the form of overly generous programs and subsidized hydro prices. They also use Alberta revenue. Which seems more fair to you? Not sure what you're talking about regarding the crash. Oil is pretty low right now. Alberta isn't receiving any equilization, so we seem to still be OK. On the other hand, QC is receiving over $11 billion this year, roughly $1300 for every man woman and child in the province. You're welcome. Amusing for a defender of QC equilization to be bashing Albertan spending. Those who live in glass houses...

If that was the end, I don't think you'd get many complaints. But the fact of the matter is that the rest of Canada pays higher taxes to pay for excess spending in Quebec. Both Federal spending well in excess of receipts from QC, as well as direct transfers through equalization. If your choices only impacted your taxes, I wouldn't care. But as an Albertan paying higher than otherwise taxes for QC social programs while QC environmentalists block my livelihood....

I suspect that it is true that no other country has density like Canada, except maybe Greenland (is that a full country?)

I quite like SD's post, but maybe I'm congenitally suited to real estate. My 2008-2009 bounce back profits all got ploughed into foreclosures shortly after, and some of them will be "keep forever" property. I'll probably estate freeze them over time so there isn't tax payable on my death (hopefully decades from now). I think a few rentals with a competent property manager still counts as retirement. I own 5 that I self manage, and I spend way more time on my stock investments. Maybe that is a flaw, and I need more businesses where I can check the price once per quarter. That's roughly what I do with my RE, and it takes no time at all.

That certainly wasn't my intention when I posted it...

I wonder about the advisability of lending money to people secured by depreciating assets where there is no domestic income or asset base. Maybe it will work out fine, but I wonder how many of those loans will be to people who don't have enough money to pay them because it's stuck in China, or who ate trying to keep up with the Chan's without having the same level of wealth. Probably it depends on what interest rate and LTV they use. It does seem to me like Chinese cracking down on capital controls will be a big risk for this business. I do agree the bolded sentence above is a euphemism for "rich asians" Of course, there will soon be a public way to play the thesis, and you could buy shares in the shell company to get a head start...

So the discounted cheese should start flowing any day now!

I was looking through some regulatory documents, and came across this reverse takeover. I'm not sure what this says about the market in Canada in general, but the bolded jumped out at me. If you can take a company public that specializes in leasing high end cars to new immigrants and international students, is there a bubble? Solution Auto specializes in sourcing and leasing luxury and exotic vehicles, yachts and other high value assets. Solution works with a select group of automotive and marine dealerships providing lending solutions to clients who cannot obtain leasing terms with traditional Canadian financial institutions or other sub-prime lenders. Typical customers include new immigrants, business owners and international students. Solution Auto provides a unique leasing experience whereby it partners with its clients to help them navigate the challenges of acquiring, insuring, maintaining and upgrading vehicles and luxury assets in Canada.