wondering

Hey, that's a good idea. I only found this board by doing lots of Google searches. I am sure there is lots of shareholders that have no clue of this board. Not sure if Fairfax would allow Sanjeev to set up a table at the AGM, but it's worth a try.

I first bought in 2004 @ 175 Cdn after the 4 hurricanes in Florida. I thought the bad news was already discounted in the prices. The stock went down further to 106 or so, I bought again. I have made subsequent purchases since then.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-fairfax-insurer-accused-worst-for-climate-strategies/ "According to the report by Investors for Paris Compliance, among the top 30 insurers globally, Fairfax Financial is ranked in the bottom 10 for underwriting insurance policies for fossil fuel companies that have not published climate goals." More left-wing crap. Left-wing reporting of a left-wing organization. I have no problem FFH write policies to oil companies as long as they have viewed the premium as being sufficient for the risk that they are undertaking.

The price drop 28% today to 1.96/share US. Anyone know the reason

Maybe Adam Waterous at Strathcona

Fairfax is not known as a big dividend payer, but the dividend growth rate from 2006 ($1.40/share) to 2024 ($15/share) comes to compounded annual growth rate of 14% - calculated with a cheapo online calculator. Not a bad growth rate! My prediction is that they increase the dividend to $17-20/share. As we creep closer to intrinsic value, the share buybacks become less valuable and regular dividends seem more appropriate. Of course, I could be way off and share buybacks could still offer tremendous value.

A little nothing-burger of a Fairfax investment ZoomerMedia is going private. The market cap is 20M, FFH owns approx 15%. The selling price is 167% over the pre-announcement price. I have no idea if Fairfax made any money on this thing. I think if they broke even, they can call it a success. I feel embarrassed because after quickly reading the press release and some of the disclosures, I still can't figure out if Fairfax is part of the purchasing group or are they selling their shares too. under Continuing Shareholders paragraph "The Equity Commitment Provider is an affiliate of Fairfax.." What is an Equity Commitment Provider? Are they provide the loans for the buyout? ZoomerMedia-NC-final.pdf

I have been following this company. The quick summary is that they have almost sold all the Fairfax Africa legacy investments. They have made some new investments - example some African fintech, a Morrocan company (can't remember if it is a grocery chain or medical supply company or maybe both - I have a crap memory). They have added more Helios funds - such Sports and Entertainment (NBA Africa) I think until there is more market interest in emerging markets/Africa this investment will be in the doldrums. Once there is greater interest, I think Helios Fairfax will make more money from the managements fees from the various Helios Funds. The plus side is that Wall Street has completely lost interest in Africa, and Helios is the only major player there so they have the market to themselves. Current management appears competent and honest to me (go to the Helios Fairfax, you can watch investor presentation videos). The problem is the lack of interest - why invest in Africa while the US dollar is riding high and there so much momentum will US tech.

Jamie Lowry, head of european investments at Fairfax. Discussion is not specifically about Fairfax, but it gives a little insight into how Jamie approaches his investment decisions. Good talk. A case study of the turnaround a Fiat under Sergio Marchionne.

I know its still a bit early (2 months away) but I thought I would start the seemingly annual debate on the Fairfax dividend. If you would have asked me 18 months will Fairfax increase the dividend from $10/share US - my answer would have been - No way! Surprise, surprise - Fairfax increased the dividend to $15/share US last year. Now if you asked me the same question this year, I am not so sure. I think there is a good possibility (50%?) that they raise the dividend to 17-20/share. I know Fairfax will never be known as a huge dividend-payer, but since the stock price has rose so much in one year, I thought the probability that they raise the dividend again so that the dividend yield is 1.3 - 1.6%. (currently hovering around 1%). Thoughts... Related to this is that I listened to @SafetyinNumbers podcasts recently. Part of his argument of why the Fairfax price remains low is that the stock doesn't screen well with the quants. Based on this argument I was wondering if a few years of dividends increases would be looked on a favourable with the quants?

I was wondering if I could get @SharperDingaan's or anyone else on the board opinion on peak oil production. What spurred this thought is a few YouTube videos I have watched with Art Berman, geologist and Doomberg (green chicken guy). In short Art Berman's argument is that the US oil shale production is peaking and should be declining within the next few years. When this happens oil prices should increase substantially because of the inelastic demand nature of oil. The counter argument from Doomberg is that because of technical efficiencies (for example China converting trucks to run on natural gas and thus decreasing the need for diesel fuel), and lots of untapped or not fully exploited sources of oil in the world (for Argentina, Venezuela - if they sort out their political mess), peak oil production is a long way in the future - 50 - 100 years. Doomberg argues because oil is so crucial to our way of life and to our standard of living, governments, companies, and engineers will extreme lengths to ensure the supply of oil is kept plentiful. Here is a video from Art Berman explaining his position. Here is a video with Doomberg debating with another analyst (taking the same position as Art Berman).

The polar opposite analyst of Brett Horn appears to be National Bank's Jaeme Gloyn. New price target $2200 Cdn "Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. ( FFH-T -1.16%decrease ) with an “outperform” rating and $2,200 target, up from $2,100. Average: $1,995.65. Analyst: “While one of the strongest performers in our coverage year-to-date, up 44 per cent vs. the TSX Financials index up 20 per cent, we continue to see upside for FFH. With Q4-23 results FFH upgraded its annual operating income guidance by over 30 per cent to $4-billion, consisting of $2 billion from interest and dividend income, $1.2-billion in underwriting profit and $750-million from associates and non-insurance. Two quarters later, the conservatism in this guidance has become clear. As of Q2, run-rate interest and dividend income has already reached $2.2-billion, plus underwriting income and associates and non-insurance are tracking above guidance. Strong H1 results and deployment of excess capital to drive ROE accretion increase our confidence that operating ROE in the mid-teens is sustainable and a valuation re-rate is warranted.”

Article about speculation of Fairfax being included in S&P/TSX 60 https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-this-goose-could-fly-south-straight-out-of-canadas-main-stock-index/ because of lower trading volumes/float several companies could be delisted from the S&P/TSX 60 names mentioned in delisting Canada Goose, Ballard Power Systems, Africa Oil Corp, Westshore Terminals, Algonquin Power according to Jean-Michel Gauthier, analyst at Bank of Montreal names mentioned as possible inclusion into the index include Bird Construction and Fairfax article discussed the fact that the index is already heavily weighted towards financials and natural resource companies "S&P has a degree of discretion in decisions around which stocks go in its indexes. The key criteria it uses is known as “float” – the value of shares that aren’t held by insiders and that therefore trade frequently and are easily available to the public. The index provider does not release its proprietary float calculations. To stay in the composite, a company’s float must not drop below 0.025 per cent, or 2.5 hundredths of a percentage point, of the total value of the index"

Obsidian

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-ccm-bauer-true-hockey-sale/ " CCM Hockey, Bauer Hockey LLC and the hockey division of True Temper Sports are all being auctioned by their long-time owners, according to two sources involved in the sales process. The Globe and Mail is not naming the sources because they are not permitted to publicly comment for their employers. Bauer and True Temper are attempting to take advantage of buyer interest generated by CCM, the first business to hit the market, according to the sources" " Sagard and Fairfax acquired Bauer out of bankruptcy in 2017 for US$575-million and are targeting a US$800-million exit, according to one of the sources. Bauer’s EBITDA is just more than US$100-million annually, the source said. In early August, Bauer’s advisers received expressions of interest from 11 potential buyers and moved to the next stage of the sale process with eight players, including several U.S. private equity funds, according to the source, and several bidders for Bauer also looked at CCM." "Bauer set a Sept. 16 deadline to move forward with a maximum of four bidders, and plans to be in the final round of negotiations with one buyer by the end of October, the source said" According to the 2023 shareholder letter Peak Performance (Bauer) has a carrying value of $129M and a market value of $226M. They actually paid $154M in 2017. They received $54M in dividends which I guess brought down the carrying value to 129M. At the moment, I can't find their percentage share of Peak Performance.