randomep

And what will happen for Obamacare? I just heard a GOP senator saying that once they win they will gradually dismantle obamacare, I thought the GOP would have given up on it by now....

But this is exactly the type of logic that people made about housing or about stocks during the tech bubble. The point about all these bubbles is that you can't predict when something happens only that it will happen and so past experience is a poor forward-looking guide. Also the catalyst for these events is often extremely unpredictable. If there is substantial inflation, Japanese pensions and institutional investors will have to switch out of bonds and if they do where exactly do they invest? There is a high probability it is equities. Plus institutional investors in Japan have already indicated they want to make this switch. I work for an institutional investor and I can tell you that there home bias is extremely strong. The same will be true for other Japanese companies and individuals. I would predict that equity markets would become hugely overvalued. Bass named one case where equities did not skyrocket and that is Mexico. But the Mexican situation is different than Japan. Mexico had a peg and they removed the peg allowing the currency to devalue. Japan has no peg. Also Mexico has substantial hot money flows from foreign investors. Japan doesn't. Well said, the Yen is almost like a reserve currency, so Japan does not need to attract foreign capital. The current account is positive for 2014 despite the nuclear reactors being shutdown. And now with oil prices plumetting they'll use up even less foreign capital!

Consider a fidelity account then!

ya, well I was kicking myself for not getting in last may, I don't want to repeat that mistake again.

Long term, it is a dip and a buying opportunity. Whenever you see forced selling you can assume there will be some opportunities. In the short term, the buying activity on this forum suggests there is still room to drop further. Can you explain your latter sentence? As more bargains become available, the "buy-the-dippers" will put cash to work. This temporarily slows the bottoming process. When the buying is exhausted, the bottom will be formed. My instinct says we haven't seen the bottom yet. I don't try to time the market though. IBM hit my target price, so I bought. I think your statement applies if we have capitulation. Maybe it was true in 2009 march, but on any random dip, the actions of this thread is not the cause of the market level.

Many people on this board have been accumulating cash for awhile now. Even after my two most recent purchases, I'm left with 25% cash. The two stocks I bought were down 30-60% and looked like steals even if I am concerned about general markets going down. Still plenty of ability to average down if my fears are realized. I don't think you can gauge sentiment by the buying and selling activity here. Most members seem to ignore the macro simply buy deals they like regardless. Maybe the sizing of the buys and sells changes - i know mine do- but few people here try to call tops and bottoms Well, I meant and I think you can guage by comparing this thread with the "what are you selling today" thread. There is nothing there!

Long term, it is a dip and a buying opportunity. Whenever you see forced selling you can assume there will be some opportunities. In the short term, the buying activity on this forum suggests there is still room to drop further. Can you explain your latter sentence?

If the buying and selling threads are accurate guage of the sentiment in this forum, people here in this forum feel like today is just a dip and a buying opportunity.

Sh**t euro crisis again? When will it stop! My fav at the moment is European Reliance, a greek insurance company, not P&C. http://bovinebear.blogspot.com/search/label/EUPIC

BAC common

Ya I noticed all my US small caps are taking a beating. These stock vary a lot but it seems like the market just paints them all with one brush...... hope this ends soon

I'm sure people are starting to get sick and tired of me yammering on about Japan, but please don't say that Japanese stocks deserved to be depressed because they're based in Japan, like Russian stocks deserve to be depressed because they're in Russia or Chinese stocks deserved to be depressed because they're in China. There is next to no political risk in Japan (unlike Russia or China) and it's my understanding that things like fraud and other financial shenanigens are more severely punished in Japan than in the US! I'm not 100% sure you meant to lump Japan, Russia, and China together, but I just wanted to clarify. Beyond being below the US in terms of corporate governance, I really see no reason why Japanese stocks "deserve" to be depressed. I think they're depressed due to investor psychology, and nothing more. west, I never said I feel they deserved to be depressed, I am saying some third person generic third party retail investor can argue that when I push my Japanese holdings on them maybe you've forgotten me but we discussed Japanese holdings many a time in another thread, I have a sizeable position in Japan, plus a small position in Russian, but honestly I am staying away from China......

You mentioned US listed but others brought out their foreign stocks. So here is my foreign stock that I just posted: Putprop. The stock trades at 3x w/o any debt, albeit part of it is mark to market gains on property. But hey you can't say it deserves to be depressed because it is in russia, china or japan... this one is S Africa. http://bovinebear.blogspot.com/2014/09/putprop-earnings-looks-too-good.html

Thanks got it. Good to know how to read WSJ articles. So he did only 11%? Well then I guess I was wrong, just looking at the Brk graph over the same period Brk has almost 13%.....

fareast, I cannot read the article I think you need to register or pay ...... But I always wondered if people realize that Larsen has compounded money much faster than say Brk for the last 10-15 yrs . No I don't have the exact numbers, but I can just estimate from Gate's share of MSFT and how he has grown it to 100+ Billion when you take the $82 bil + whatever he gave to the Melinda and Bill Gates foundation. Maybe there should be 20,000 people going to a Larsen event. WEB said Gates is the smartest person he has ever met. I give him kudos for having the insight to interview and find one of the smartest investors around.....

What makes you think they’ll offer a price? I think they’ll just take the assets for nothing and jail anyone they can get their hands on. sorry to hear you jump ship, I will stay on the way John Templeton told us

Anyway know Denali's AUM?

ya I just read the 3-4 pages on him and I can easily tell that he really has a different view of how to invest from most other managers.... I am going to read his investor letters which I think are online.....

I used to think buying many stocks (say 30) is di-worsification until I read about schloss's results. Like many previous responses it depends on what kind of investor you are, there are so many variables specific you each person's case. But one thing that hasn't been mentioned is, if you want to know your investments well and be a do-it-yourselfer, then you have to read the quarterlies, I find that I have a capacity to follow just 20 stocks. That is 80 reports a year at least! I may be able to follow more stocks if I am investing full time.

Learner, thanks that very insightful. So Put prices do not reflect negative sentiment.... hmmmm....

Well, but sometimes puts are more expensive than calls! SPY, current price 200, for expiration dec 2014, strike 200, puts are $6, calls are $4 !! Am I correct in thinking that the consensus is that the SPY (s&p500 index) is expected to fall by year end? And? or? we can say that everyone is worried and wants to protect their downside so demand for puts is outstripping supply so the put option price is bid up and it is overvalued? any input is appreciated.......

No. I want to know statistically, out of all the millions of contracts out there. On average how much is excersized versus how much is paid (for the option). So if I buy a SPY option at 6, it expires worthless, then I the buyer is out 6. Next year I buy the put option at 6 again and it falls from 200 to 188 so I am up $6 on my option. Minus the $6 I lost this year, I am breaking even. If you play this out for all the options, who is ahead, the seller or the buyer. I wonder if the CME or some other institution keeps tabs of these stats. I am just getting a feel for in the long run who wins, the option buyer? or the seller? or is it even?

That can be calculated given the option price, stock price, risk free rate, some stock return rate, right? I am not saying I know how, but it can be done? So wouldn't there be some free tool or something that can do that?

Hi all, Just curious here if anyone knows of the average amount paid out through options excercise versus amount paid. So for a typical option purchased, for each dollar paid, what is the expected amount that is exercised. It is analogous to the payout ratio of insurance. And options is a form of insurance. Any literature on this is appreciated.... thanks

+1 A bit elementary but right on the ball. Being a contrarian is: 1. being different from the crowd 2. being right