randomep

*** beware *** when you compile a list on your kindle / amazon cloud, you have to go click on them one by one to delete them, I hate kindle for that reason now

This is in the context of a portfolio. I think the OP said he wants 30% cash. Maybe he has 70% invested in Brk. He is totally rational for not being 100% Brk. This is about the cash portion of a portfolio. Useful rule of thumb: If Kraven posts something about Berkshire, Buffett, or Munger, he's being sarcastic. ;) Sh***t can I delete my post?

Depending on the size of your cash pile and lock up outlook, pretty much any high liquidity instrument (1) will do since interest rates are volatile at the moment. 1. Probably need assets to be interest rate independent, would be nice if inflation independent, and valued in USD. Try BRK if you want higher returns? I specifically pick BRK because Buffett tries to get returns to match IV growth for shareholders. Obviously no guarantees. I wouldn't buy many other stocks as a cash proxy however. Not the best solution but I'm guessing you've heard of the more practical approaches. Are you honestly recommending BRK as a cash proxy? Personally I prefer BRK over cash. When you think about it it's a lot better. Let me list the ways. One, you get to be junior partners to Warren and Charlie. That's priceless. Two, you sleep better than if you just have plain old cash. Three, you get a ticket to the hottest show on the planet and can go and laugh maniacally every time Warren or Charlie say something remotely amusing and hiss anyone who says anything remotely critical. Four, you get to feel superior to anyone who doesn't agree with you. To me, it isn't even close. This is in the context of a portfolio. I think the OP said he wants 30% cash. Maybe he has 70% invested in Brk. He is totally rational for not being 100% Brk. This is about the cash portion of a portfolio.

I also disagree with "things never turn out as they are supposed to". Many would feel that way because they thought they had a sure thing that didn't turn out so. So it is a matter of being too sure of yourself more than anything.

I predict that nobody in this thread will predict the biggest event affecting the markets. looking back at 2014, I guess the biggest single event affecting the markets is $60 oil, did anyone predict that last year? cheers :)

My regret was not putting every penny I had into the market in march 2009!

Well, screeners seems to be the way many of us turn over rocks. This has been discussed many times and I use morningstar which has a lot of capabilities. However, in the end I decided to write my own script (on a linux-based system) and just grab the data off the web on a site like ft.com and process it myself. The only thing is to get a list of all the tickers which are available at: http://people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/New_Home_Page/data.html

+1

Exactly for me. And watching too much CNBC.

I concur. Its all a waste of time. Things never unfold as they are supposed to. Well, I don't think it predicting demographic trends is always a waste of time. Or else then you are saying the market is perfectly efficient, right? I think it is true that reading too much into those trends can be harmful which is probably what the experience players are talking about. That is really just having too much confidence on some investment theory.

I think the best way to play this is through Managed Care Organizations (MCOs). Many government medical programs (Medical, Medicare, Obamacare) are distributed through private sector. There is no doubt demand is rising all over the world for medical services for the elderly, but supply will have trouble keeping up. There are only so many doctors and nurses and US is already pay 17% of GDP for it. So the trend is more and more of the money will go through MCOs because MCOs can most efficiently cap costs. examples of MCOs: ANTM, Aetna, UnitedHealth etc

How is that a tax loss strategy? You are making a gain right?

For all US based investors: selling all foreign currencies. From what I have read online, currency losses are tax-deductable, if I am wrong plz correct me.

International trading is the biggest issue for me, by far more important than getting used to some UI. In that case fidelity can do 25 markets online plus several others by phone.... Does IB do all that?

He has said it in public speaking appearances at universities. I've never seen proof of it anywhere (I doubt you can see proof of it without investing), but if I was considering investing in his fund, the first thing I would ask is "Can you show me the proof that you've done 25% for 20 years", and if he couldn't show it to me, I wouldn't invest. So I assume since he manages $700m, a lot of smart people have fact checked him. He has said it in public speaking appearances at universities. I've never seen proof of it anywhere (I doubt you can see proof of it without investing), but if I was considering investing in his fund, the first thing I would ask is "Can you show me the proof that you've done 25% for 20 years", and if he couldn't show it to me, I wouldn't invest. So I assume since he manages $700m, a lot of smart people have fact checked him. See there he goes again. How can he say he is not allowed to talk about his fund's returns and he advertises himself to a public audience? BTW, this PF2 from inception 2000 to sept is 15.4%, anything longer than that surely isn't audited..... While that is exceptional and probably higher than any person I know during that period, the massive bulk of that CAGR was achieved prior to 2007. So just when his AUM exploded into the hundreds of millions his performance tanked so for those that jumped on his bandwagon it is never truer " that past results are no guarantee of future performance "

Given that he's a self proclaimed cloner I wound't have expected to find anything different in his portfolio...would you? Actually I don't really pay too much to what he says because I see a lot of contradictions. I know he recommends cloning, but if you say that then how did he achieve his amazing returns circa 2000? It couldn't have been through cloning. So was he in a different phase of his investing journey? If so when did he change into a cloner? And maybe we should discuss his pre-cloner results with his cloner results. I really try hard to find what every great investor has to offer, but I cannot learn from Pabrai because he just seems to be all over the place.

I totally agree with your sentiment. Firstly, Pabrai is a great PR man. You google his name and you'll see something like crushed the market by 1100% since inception. So he has no problem people touting his returns pre-2007 but now? He keeps his returns close to his chest. I read somewhere (maybe here) that he beat the market by 10% or so last year. So again he lets it leak when it promotes him. But this year up to sept his return is -3.4%, no wonder he is so tight lipped!!! And you have to look at it another way. We all know his portfolio from SEC filings, it contains stocks that every value investor and his mother is bullish on: BAC, C, GM, the only unusual name is ZINC. Now he is saying you have to think differently to achieve different results. How can he crush the market with such a vanilla portfolio. And about this ZINC investment, it isn't some brilliant insight into the stock. He is making a bet about some new plant, and the plant isn't working out so well. Also, while I am at it, he also contradicts himself. He used to say that he wants to have some big portion in cash cos that was his mistake in 2008. But now in his recent speeches he says he is okay with volatility, hmmm he seems to have a very short memory.

+1 If I ever need to stop them from pestering me, I'll have something to copy!

great find! thank you!

BUT! the currency depreciated by 25%, so the stocks are up only 50% (200% * .75=150%) In four years 50% is decent but not spectacular.

What made you sell Fujimak? The primary reason is for a tax loss. I actually think I almost broken even in yen, but the yen has depreciated from 95 per USD to 116 today so I am down 20% or so. I used a bit of the proceeds to buy Riken Keiki (7734). But in 2weeks it will be 30 days since I sold so I can buy back in. I just might. Mind you this is after they revised their loss estimate from -39yen to -16yen. What do you think about Fujimak?

KCLI, ITIC, Fujimak (TSE:5965)

Riken Keiki (TSE:7734)

Thanks for sharing... but to stay on the topic of this thread, so do you think the GOP will do better for you?

+1 very well said and though it may sound cliche, I am just realizing this as I enter my 40s