no_thanks
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Everything posted by no_thanks
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Sounds like I am obsessed with Ackman, which I am not, don't even really like him, but it does sounds like the most plausible plan would be similiar to his Target fund he did a couple of years ago? I could see being really interested in something like that. I originally got really interested in this idea when looking at PDRX a year or so ago. Just a really boring, super overcapitalized company. Something like that would be a good target.
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Hi All, The Pershing Square/VRX deal got me thinking again on the idea of investors working together. What is allowed in this area? It just seems like such a good idea to get together with a few others (in my case, those with a lot more money than me :)) and get some of those overcapitalized micro/small caps to get a little more efficient cap structure. I looked into it superficially about a year ago, and thought I read that it was pretty much illegal, but if Ackman can pull off his recent move, maybe I am just not being clever enough :) I am definitely not looking to getting close to anything that might be illegal, so please don't get that impression. I just think there is a lot of opportunity out there in this area. Thanks in advance.
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Nice!! How did you manage living there. I am in Atlanta.
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Haven't seen this one posted yet. It is really really good in my opinion. http://clarkstreetvalue.blogspot.com/
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too right. stop sleeping. its slacker time... I saw a good one on twitter yesterday- Carl Icahn doesn't sleep, he waits...
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Surely you must be aware that you can google the article titles and you can get around the paywall? Works really well when you use Chrome. Yea, I have been using chrome and doing that for a while. I just have been running into more and more article that it does not work for. Not sure what I am doing wrong. I even try and slightly change the words so that I am not searching for the title exactly, which I think may trigger the paywall.
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I just asked my CEO's secretary for the company's WSJ login 8)
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Sorry for the lack of clarification... my investments I normally label as 1 of 3 types Compounders category: example would be TDG... great company / great economics / great management / good tailwinds... but the valuation isn't cheap (at least on face value)... it typically trades for a mid to low single digit free cash flow yield... despite the price I am willing to hold this company and periodically add to it when it becomes reasonably valued Deep value category: this is my terms for stuff that is just ridiculously cheap at face value, but not necessarily a great biz. For example, I might be willing to buy a really crappy house in a crappy neighborhood if the price was just stupid low, but only at a certain price that is super discounted. Examples... I owned yellow media for a time. Despite the management being great, Fiat falls into this bucket for me. Special sits category: I didn't mention this earlier, but sometimes I will put on risk arb plays and/or other investments that are impacted by corporate events. I guess you could also call this event driven. I hope that makes more sense now. Yes it is redundant, but it is simply how I label/breakout my portfolio when I am thinking about it. I agree on TDG. I am thankfully that so far it has worked out even though I bought it a while ago at a somewhat expensive price. I assume you have also looked at Wesco Aircraft Holdings as they are kinda similar? Why do you like TDG more than WAIR? Thanks. I actually haven't spent much time looking at Wesco, so I can't give you a thoughtful answer. The honest answer is I didn't compare the two when considering a purchase. However, here is my quick thought (without talking about valuation). Both companies sell and/or distribute small parts that are all over the plane and relatively low cost in the grand scheme of things, which is nice. Additionally, they both get to take advantage of a planes long life cycle by selling and/or distributing replacement parts. That said, TDG is in a better part of the supply chain as they are generally selling product for which they are the sole provider. I don't follow Wesco, but I always thought of them as a distributor or middle man. Net Net I would think TDG should have better pricing power. You can certainly see large differentials in their margins. So TDG appears to be a higher quality biz that is benefiting from the same structural tailwinds I too had to close my eyes to purchase the shares, because the multiples be it EV/EBITDA, P/FCF, etc did not scream bargain. Hope that is helpful and I would love to hear your thoughts about Wesco and/or any critiques of mine That is really helpful and a good point about their respective pricing power. I guess the question then is, is WAIR cheap enough compared to TDG to make up for the lower margins. But, if it is a long term hold you are most likely going to make returns equal to the companies returns, so that does make TDG more attractive even at it higher valuation. Thanks for explaining you thinking, it was really helpful for me.
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Sorry for the lack of clarification... my investments I normally label as 1 of 3 types Compounders category: example would be TDG... great company / great economics / great management / good tailwinds... but the valuation isn't cheap (at least on face value)... it typically trades for a mid to low single digit free cash flow yield... despite the price I am willing to hold this company and periodically add to it when it becomes reasonably valued Deep value category: this is my terms for stuff that is just ridiculously cheap at face value, but not necessarily a great biz. For example, I might be willing to buy a really crappy house in a crappy neighborhood if the price was just stupid low, but only at a certain price that is super discounted. Examples... I owned yellow media for a time. Despite the management being great, Fiat falls into this bucket for me. Special sits category: I didn't mention this earlier, but sometimes I will put on risk arb plays and/or other investments that are impacted by corporate events. I guess you could also call this event driven. I hope that makes more sense now. Yes it is redundant, but it is simply how I label/breakout my portfolio when I am thinking about it. I agree on TDG. I am thankfully that so far it has worked out even though I bought it a while ago at a somewhat expensive price. I assume you have also looked at Wesco Aircraft Holdings as they are kinda similar? Why do you like TDG more than WAIR? Thanks.
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full time private investors who left their day job
no_thanks replied to ourkid8's topic in General Discussion
I am not 100% trying to argue for it, I am just hearing more about it picking up some, and anecdotally, my wife just got an 8.5% raise (off a pretty low base) and a friend just got a 25% bump for moving to a new job. Two stories don't prove a point, though. So you all believe that, if you were trying to decide to quit your job and manage money, wage increases down the line wouldn't be something you feel like would be a big deal? -
full time private investors who left their day job
no_thanks replied to ourkid8's topic in General Discussion
You are right, there is no good evidence of it yet. I just am reading about it some in different places, and thought that people need to consider it when debating this idea. Just one small part of the pro/con on this question. -
full time private investors who left their day job
no_thanks replied to ourkid8's topic in General Discussion
Isn't every saying wage inflation is about to pick up, and the stock market is overvalued. Individual stocks can obviously still be undervalued, but it seems like you would be sailing against the wind trying to start this right now. And with wages very close to inflating, there could potentially be a bit more to lose in lost wages going forward. -
Employees only see one side of the cost equation - the fund fees. The company also has to pay administration fees. By offering plans with expensive funds, and by doing business with their bank, insurer, or payroll processor they can reduce the admin fees. (Some of those expensive funds kick back money to the administrator.) The best way to look at it is a total fee basis. Fidelity often comes out the winner, or Vanguard for larger companies. I volunteered for my company's 401k committee and we chose to switch to Fidelity. Thanks. I assumed it had something to do with fees on the back end.
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I actually just typed a little table up this weekend for my wife to show her boss. The approx. 50 employee company uses The Hartford. Awful fees and selection, but they 50% match up to 5%, so we do that. Why would a company not chose the optimal plan. I think Wells Fargo gave them a loan, and is the administrator of the plan. Does anyone know what the company's incentives are when choosing a plan?
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What do you mean, they quit before their 401K is vested?
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full time private investors who left their day job
no_thanks replied to ourkid8's topic in General Discussion
Sounds like a really nice plan and an exciting few years for you. If you ever travel to Atlanta, give me a shout. And let us know how it works out. Good luck. -
Wow, they really only charge 1.5%. That can't be fixed right? What type of warning do they give for raising it. I think the main attraction to the house idea is the long term fixed aspect of it, with inflation hopefully doing its thing at some point over the next 15 to 30 years. With the market at new highs, this is obviously not the time to take out a ton of leverage. It is just that one side (the debt) seems like a really great deal, while the other (equities) seem pretty expensive. I just want to make sure that, as I am kinda young and will see a stock market crash in the future, I am ready to capitalize on it. Thanks again for all the feedback.
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Thanks for all the feedback. I won't be doing this. I do think it is a good idea to try and come up with ideas to increase your productive assets, and was curious if anyone had used this method before. Long term fixed rate debt just seems so attractive to me right now, and I can't think of another way to get access to it. Anyway, thanks again for the responses. I am not the best at seeing things from multiple angles, and the back and forth is much appreciated.
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Just don't really see there dividend going down any. I imagine in something like this you are just really looking for stability.
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Sorry if there is already a thread on this. I did a quick search and didn't see anything. Looking at the spread between AT&T or something like that, and 15yr fixed rate mortgages, do you think it would be worthwhile to take out a mortgage on a fully paid off house that has a pretty solid, stable value, and just sticking the money in AT&T. Would a bank let you do this, if it was for like 20% of the houses value? Thanks a lot. P.S. This is probably the market top sign everyone is looking for :)
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she should spend six months working in someone else's shop first. no better way to learn. even whole foods or something like that. great way to learn on someone else's dime. That is a really great idea, and seems so obvious now that you mention it. I am going to really push for that before we make any serious moves. And it would be similar to a fresh market, just without the perishables, as we probably won't get a really high traffic location. Thanks for the feedback, it is one of those things that most likely won't happen, but is fun to think about. It is going to be hard for me to get excited about something with such a high percentage of fixed cost and inventory.
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Your highest conviction idea for 2014 + why
no_thanks replied to steph's topic in General Discussion
Another article about Downtown Brooklyn Real Estate. Sure do hope Mark Greenblatt is planning on capitalizing on this. http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20140226/FINANCE/140229900/jpmorgan-moves-2k-employees-to-brooklyn -
My wife is interested in opening a shop, selling higher end cheese, beer, meat, wine, olive oil, etc. with maybe a little lunch counter. Going for the lower turnover, higher margin niche. As I have access to a group of super smart and experienced people here, I thought I would see if anyone had any advice, or books kinda relevant to this types of business. Does anyone have any experience with something like this? If anyone has been to Highlands, N.C. we are kinda thinking a smaller version of the grocery store they have there.
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Just reading this article from the newish blog http://oddlotinvest.wordpress.com/ on Ted Weschler and W.R. Grace, and I have been curious to hear other stories about them. I always enjoy reading about their track records and ideas, but haven't seen much out there. So, anyone have anything.... The Article: http://oddlotinvest.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/w-r-grace-stock-soars.pdf
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I just found out about the HSA this year as I just switch to a High Deductible Health Plan. My company's accounts are with Fidelity, and they let you buy whatever you want in it. Individual stocks and all that. Really happy to hear that you can just save receipts from previous years and take out the money whenever you need it.
