Ham Hockers

That would be great. Monetary policy based on when the Fed thinks there are asset bubbles.

If this is a bubble, the word has lost all meaning.

I am under the impression that if you charge a significant sum on your card out of character with historic spending you'll get a call. I put my wedding on it and got a phone call. You can check online. There's a page where you can enter in a dollar amount and it will tell you immediately if you will be approved or if you should call Amex first. Sort of off topic, but I've always wondered if a lot of value investors were into the mileage/rewards points game. So many places to find free dollar bills lying around.

Related: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2014/09/co-opting-regulation-for-profit.html

Yes, completely different. I understand why mortgage isn't deductible (tax code) and why houses are expensive (bubble that hasn't burst yet), but why do banks not offer 30 year fixed loans? (EDIT) A quick google search answered my question. Like most questions about why something in a market doesn't make sense the answer is usually some government law or regulation. Why can't Canadians get 30 year mortgages (but Americans can)? Nick Rowe is the best.

http://idiosyncraticwhisk.blogspot.com/2014/09/speculative-position-in-housing.html

An oldie but a goodie http://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2011/11/the-inflation-fallacy.html

Yep, stock vs flows. Most people don't really care or get the distinction, though.

I'm with Geo on this one. Even with proper care and maintenance most equipment doesn't hold its value and will eventually need to be replaced. Equipment either deteriorates in value to the point that it isn't worth fixing it when it breaks or it becomes obsolete and it is worth the investment to buy newer equipment. In other words it depreciates. None of this is true with a properly maintained building. It holds its value quite well if maintained properly and doesn't become obsolete by the newest iBuilding 2.0. "Maintaining" a building is essentially the same as slowly converting it over time to iBuilding 2.0. The timing and lumpiness of replacement costs is totally different with a single machine but not really that different in my opinion.

Does that net out deferred taxes? If not, it's not "net" worth!! Really a pet peeve of mine

I've been doing this for several years. Update once a month in a large excel spreadsheet. I follow a bunch of different metrics (monthly, quarterly, LTM, since inception, and annualized since inception) but the most important for me are: change in assets change in net worth change in liquid net worth cash to monthly expense ratio liquid assets to monthly expense ratio breakeven income (income needed to cover current run rate expenses) I account for all deferred or unpaid taxes on unrealized gains as well, think a lot of ppl miss that At your age, net worth returns are really dependent on income level.

Dang, y'all. I done bought something.

There was a new VIC post on Tetragon Financial yesterday. If anyone here is a member, would you mind PMing me the article? Would be very greatly appreciated. Thanks, Ham

Although it's not doing so hot today. Ha.

This doesn't seem close to a perfect short ...

CBOs of unsecured debt is pretty rare as far as i am aware. That's right, but many CLOs will have a small basket for bonds. Although that's going away given the new Volcker rules. Moody's Analytics for example will have a tool that allows you to search for underlying issuers. There are also others as Morningstar has stated. They are not cost efficient for the small investor. Yes, these are private deals, but loan/bond desks at the dealers should know where things are held. It doesn't matter whether it's in a CLO, hedge fund, mutual fund etc. This is an opaque market but only for those not in the market. It's actually very easy to get information if you're an active investor in these types of securities. Yes you can "buy from CDOs" but it's almost always easier to just go to a bank desk. Also keep in kind CDOs (and especially CLOs) are managed. Major debt investors are the ultimate person that you would be buying from. Ie firms like Blackstone, Oakhill, PIMCO etc. if you have contacts at investment firms you're better off just asking them if they own what you're looking for in any of their vehicles. If you're looking for really tiny issues then go to the middle market securitizers like TICC or something. Hope that helps.

Could you be more precise? Are you looking for something like "TLB issued by Valeant" or "trups issued by random regional bank"? Sorry, I'm just trying to narrow down a good answer.

Yes. I'm assuming you mean debt (loans) of corporate issuers?

Clearly not, as you broke a major rule of referencing the CFA designation. (I'm just teasing. This is one of the stupid things that the CFA tests cover.)

This is the part I think is a useful reminder, especially for long-term buy and hold investors, of which there are many on this board (including me): "Many people think that uncertainty washes out when you buy and hold for a long period of time. Not so, that is the fallacy of time diversification. Although the average return becomes more certain with more periods you don’t get the average return you get the total payoff and that becomes more uncertain with more periods." There's a link in the original article that's good, too.

Sorry that you thought it was such a waste of time. Cliff Asness seemed to like it enough to leave a comment ...

That's only true holding everything else constant.

http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2014/07/average-stock-market-returns-arent-average.html

The guy who manages $50M of outside money got there by being a great salesman and selling hard for a long time, regardless of his returns (unless he just knows a bunch of rich people).

My favorite part: "My generation, call it Generation Inflation, came of age in the 1970s, and the lesson was we need to be eternally vigilant of inflation. My generation—I'm the same age as Bernanke and Krugman, and others — a lot of people of that age became in charge of central banks and became too contractionary in recent years. My prediction is that the generation that came of age in the 2000s will be Generation Bubble. They're also going to learn the wrong lesson. They're going to think bubbles are what it's all about because of the tech and housing bubbles. I don't know if young people know this but before these two bubbles they weren't really a big issue in economics. My fear is central banks will devote too much attention toward trying to stabilize asset prices and prevent bubbles. And in doing so, they'll lose sight of the business cycle."