Ham Hockers

Do you know if the portfolio loans have MTM triggers?

I think more people are in your boat than you realize. I'm going to stick with my deflationary thesis - every year we've inched closer and closer to deflation despite the supposed recovery, trillions in stimulus, etc. and yet people still seem to think it's a possibility that is very var removed from reality. I think it's much more likely than most seem to and that the last five years have only served as confirmation of the thesis. To be more localized, I'd suggest that NYC real estate is due for a nasty correction. I understand it could become the next London, but prices have outpaced wages by a significant amount for a significant time. My friends look at me like I'm crazy when I say it - they can't imagine a better investment than buying their own apartment in NYC because the prices "have never gone down" or that "everyone wants to live here." It just seems like prices seem generally unsustainable for the local population but the local population justifies it with the flawed reasoning that doesn't necessarily support the current prices. Seems like the tinder is there - just waiting for a spark. Totally agree with you on NYC real estate. Cap rates are way too low. Similar bubble dynamics at work. The great interest rate reset (when interest rates rise) should be interesting. Very high end NYC real estate has already cracked (~$10M and up) over the last year and $3M+ is also not selling as well. There already has been a correction in a large part of the market.

18%

The investment banks are currently setting up meetings to meet issuers at the 2016 ABS Vegas conference. The machine never dies.

yeah that wasn't fun. I got Enron ...

Time is a big factor. While the driver is sleeping, eating, going to the bathroom, etc. The merchandise is sitting in the truck not going anywhere. Shipping would be quicker if done by robot vehicles. One obstacle I see is that you would need full service at truck stops and some way to guarantee payment, because there is no longer a driver to get out, swipe a credit card, and put the nozzle in the tank. I think you overcome that obstacle by paying somebody minimum wage to occupy the vehicle during the entire journey. His primary job is to swipe the credit card and put the nozzle in the gas tank when refueling mid-route. His secondary job is to be with the vehicle so that it doesn't get robbed. Sounds less complicated than clerking at 7-11. So it's minimum wage. No need for commercial vehicle drivers license. I'm not so sure about that. You need the person in the car to have the ability to drive the truck, if needed. Trucks might end up like planes, where the bulk of the flying is done automatically, but humans still occasionally take control for a variety of reasons.

Time is a big factor. While the driver is sleeping, eating, going to the bathroom, etc. The merchandise is sitting in the truck not going anywhere. Shipping would be quicker if done by robot vehicles. One obstacle I see is that you would need full service at truck stops and some way to guarantee payment, because there is no longer a driver to get out, swipe a credit card, and put the nozzle in the tank. My guess is that most of the time, there will still be a person in the truck. Need someone there to deal with breakdowns, accidents, thieves, etc.

Pliny the Elder, which is the most terribly bougie beer I'm almost ashamed.

Nick Rowe is also awesome.

You can get by OK just reading Krugman, Tyler Cowen and Scott Sumner. Maybe add in a freshwater/Chicago economist. I generally dislike non-pros writing about macro stuff. Even here.

Can someone explain to me the appeal of a tracking stock, from an investor's perspective? I'm under the impression that these securities typically have no claim on the assets of whatever business units they "track". Is that wrong?

Anyone else here in NECB?

Yes, this is a great interview that basically got me interested in cable companies for the first time. Every time I see Malone in an interview I'm impressed by how candid he is. Really a great visionary and also seems to be a fun guy. The idea of a Miley Cyrus ride was delightful.

If you can get it and can manage it safely, I/O ARMs are crazy cheap.

But I'd rather join another fund first. This is 100% the way to go in my opinion. If you have no professional experience, just about any place where you can practice and learn about finance (yes even a sell side shop!) will be better than jumping immediately into your own start up hedge fund. We're not all Michael Burry. This is 100% wrong. It's like saying to any young entrepreneur to avoid starting their own company and instead work for other people first. I know several people who have jumped into their own hedge funds without any prior formal experience and they are quite successful. Plenty of books around to learn the basics. Having said that, one exception would be if you could work for one of the masters or find an amazing teacher. That would be worth it. I don't think it's wrong to say most people would be better served learning and practicing a lot more in a professional setting before they go out on their own. Most entrepreneurs fail many times before they are successful. You don't get a lot of chances to fail running money. How many of those success stories had access to connections that made money raising much easier than for the average person? How many of those already had experience starting a successful company? The average person without deep pocketed connections who has no experience with finance/investing is very likely going to crash and burn if he goes out before he's ready.

But I'd rather join another fund first. This is 100% the way to go in my opinion. If you have no professional experience, just about any place where you can practice and learn about finance (yes even a sell side shop!) will be better than jumping immediately into your own start up hedge fund. We're not all Michael Burry.

The first half will likely make you a worse investor, and the latter half will likely make you a better one. Perhaps the two will cancel out. :) I disagree on modeling, but I get why you say it :). I think there's a lot of value in building models since it helps an investor get a general conversion of growth/discount to P/FCF or P/E. It also provides a check of whether assumptions are realistic (can a niche company really grow at 20% for 10 years). I agree that models can be an investing crutch really quickly if decisions are made solely based on the output of one. Creating an intricate model should ultimately be just a map of how money moves around the financial statements and what the effects of potential improvements/downturns are. I don't use models as much lately but I have built a lot of generic and company/sector specific ones from over the years. I always read Buffett's statement "that he doesn't model his investment decisions" as the result of experience. I bet he generally knows what the model will spit out at this point. It only happened from modeling so many companies. I choose not to work on the sell-side because I didn't want to become a worse investor :). I hate that they force you to have a positive opinion [or even an opinion] so often. I think I would have taken a buy-side position over starting a fund so early if the opportunity had been present. Same feeling here. Regarding the knitty gritty of the financial statements, you can learn by reading some great books like: 1. Quality of Earnings. 2. Financial Shenanigans. 3. What's behind the number I have a friend in the PE industry and I have also contacted a few funds, pretending that I am interested in investing with them and then pointed to their largest position and said, oh I am scared of this one. This one has xxx problems so why are you buying it? Their answers are mostly unsatisfactory to me. Personally I don't think they understand a lot of the quality of earnings and other accounting tricks. They look at models and they have the institutional imperative to buy whatever other funds buy. What is your break even AUM?

Why do you want to start a hedge fund? Serious question.

I'd like an app that sat on top of all my ride sharing apps and looked through all of them to show me availability and estimated costs.

As another example of the decline of this board, Kraven used to do this type of post way better.

Read Swensen. That's the playbook, nowadays.

It's probably good that the best forecaster at the Fed is the chairwoman. http://graphics.wsj.com/fed-predictions/#c%5B%5D=Janet+Yellen&c%5B%5D=Charles+Plosser&d=0

Much like my portfolio, it is adversely affected by cold weather.

Technically, he never says this in the song. So not his quote. Sorry, it's Friday.

I believe that would make your entity a CFC (Controlled Foreign Corp), which is another can of worms. Also the whole scheme just sounds too good to be true, so it probably is. I mean, you probably wouldn't qualify for mark-to-market treatment at all, since your holding isn't really a marketable security.