james22

Value investors are known for ignoring “macro” developments and relying solely on their skills as bottom-up stock pickers. Their depth of research is usually unparalleled, but there’s a general hesitancy in considering broader market valuations in their analysis. We’re value investors through and through, but we think it’s a mistake not to pay attention to what the current investment opportunity set looks like [the cheapest 10% of the market looks an awful lot like the other 90%] compared to different points in history. http://www.gurufocus.com/news/246779/7footers-in-a-sea-of-pygmies-why-concentrating-on-just-the-averages-obscures-true-market-insights

COBAF 401k 24% 0-10% 20% 11-20% 22% 21-30% 11% 31-40% 24% 41%+ http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/401k-what-percent-of-portfolio/10/ Assuming most 401ks are limited to market index funds, a significant number of us have to consider market valuation, yes?

Near 40% in my 401k. Shift between Vanguard's Total Stock Market/Total International Market and Total Bond Market institutional share index funds (aligning market exposure with the expected return/risk profile per Hussman - all TBM today).

Amount Converted x After-Tax Contributions/After-Tax Account Balance = Tax-Free Amount http://cdn.ameriprisecontent.com/cds/alwp/advisor/james.a.barlow/cuserstempdesktopjumpstart-roth-401k-after-tax634554166110589130.pdf

Likewise, while the Roth IRA (contribution limit $5.5k, $6.5k after 50) is unavailable to individuals earning more than $129k (couples $191k), I make a "back-door" contribution to a non-deductible Traditional IRA before converting to a Roth IRA a day later. (Adding another $64k to non-dividend paying individuals stocks every year and I'm pretty tax efficient.)

If under 50 years of age, $17.5k the pre-tax contribution limit and $52k the total contribution limit (including employer and after-tax contributions). After 50, can make an additional $5.5k pre-tax "catch-up" contribution (raising the total contribution limit to $57.5k). Having just turned 50, I contribute $23k pre-tax, my employer contributes $13k, and I contribute $21.5k after-tax (rolling over the last to my Roth IRA). Unfortunately, not all employers allow after-tax contributions and fewer allow in-service roll-over.

Assuming 401k options are generally limited to funds (index or otherwise), I'm curious how constrained most are?

Normally am I allowed to rollover to a Roth IRA only when I leave the company? Sorry, only just saw this. Ask your administrator, muscleman. Some plans allow in-service roll-overs. Mine, for example, allows me to roll-over my after-tax contributions every six months directly to my Roth IRA. Instead of adding $57,500 to my 401k and only $6,500 to my Roth IRA annually, I add $36k and $28k respectively. Gives me a little more flexibility.

I'm quite certain my returns would suffer were I to invest full-time.

Apple CEO tells ‘deniers’ to get out of Apple stock http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/03/02/mind-blowing-apple-ceo-tells-deniers-to-get-out-of-apple-stock/ (No popcorn emoticon?)

Berkshire: Has Buffett Lost His Touch? http://seekingalpha.com/article/2060813-berkshire-has-buffett-lost-his-touch

He only had the cash to take advantage of the opportunity because he considers investment opportunities across time. He'd otherwise have been fully invested at the time (in the most attractive opportunities of the time). It's not market timing in that he made no prediction as to when the bubble might burst (or even that it was a bubble), but it's macro given he believed more attractive opportunities would later show. But maybe I quibble.

Then the bubble burst... Again, a bubble had popped... How is this not macro?

1. Read every post on this Board. 2. Cheat off the cheaters.

Yes?

How could they not be (inversely) related? I once read: if mortgage rates double, home prices decline by 15% within 2-3 years.

It's the more than 40% correction I like FRFHF for. ...I keep thinking about this all the time, so Ben Graham was reflecting in the ‘30s and he writes, if you were not bearish, if you're not concerned about the economy in 1925, not in 1927, 28, 29, but in 1925, there was only a 1/100 chance that you survived the depression, because what'd you have looked at was if you were not bearish in 1925, you'd have seen the crash in 1929, drop 50%, and you'd have come right in and thought of it as an opportunity, because the Dow Jones dropped from 400 to 200, went back up to 300, and the second leg after that was a killer, dropping about 90%!! http://www.gurufocus.com/news/146628/gurufocus-interview-with-fairfax-ceo-prem-watsa

Hoping to make Gio proud, purchased FRFHF at $379 today.

I believe in the discipline of mastering the best that other people have ever figured out. I don't believe in just sitting down and trying to dream it all up yourself. Nobody's that smart. Charlie Munger

I'll take a 5% posiiton at $380.

:o

Corporate Planning, Oil & Gas

*raises hand* Lots of cash and precious metals equity. A Hussman fan, like to believe looking (and feeling) like an idiot before the peak preferable to looking like an idiot after. We'll see. I should qualify - my 401k makes up 40% of my portfolio and offers only (what I believe to be overvalued) TSM/TIM/REIT index funds. Had I a brokerage window and could invest that in something like fair valued BRK/MKL or undervalued AIG/BAC, I'd do so. Looking forward to 2014 and the board's help.

Cash and precious metals equities. Markets don't need a visible "catalyst" to crash. They just need a minor change in sentiment. http://www.businessinsider.com/catalyst-for-a-market-crash-2013-12

*raises hand* Lots of cash and precious metals equity. A Hussman fan, like to believe looking (and feeling) like an idiot before the peak preferable to looking like an idiot after. We'll see.