lessthaniv

Early note redemption announced yesterday for ~ $350m C$ https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/02/14/2829510/0/en/Fairfax-Announces-Early-Redemption-Of-Senior-Notes-Due-March-3-2025.html

Hedge by liquidating to cash based on a weakly supported argument ahead of what will likely be an exceptional looking annual report in 7 days? No thx. The last thing I want to do is lower my exposure here.

Not sure I'm understanding the math on your comment? Can you elaborate on your calculation? The following is from the Aug 2nd, 2023 newswire but the 5yr hasn't moved materially. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/enbridge-provides-notice-of-series-h-preferred-shares-conversion-right-and-announces-reset-dividend-rates-301892118.html

Article on the airport expansion and coming renovations https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/announcements/fairfax-fully-committed-to-bengaluru-airport-investment-says-bial-ceo-hari-marar-10770571.html

I like Jeff Currie. Opinions always seem well researched. This might be of interest to you. https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pages/gs-research/2023-commodity-outlook-an-underinvested-supercycle/report.pdf Thanks for the podcast link.

A good read. https://arjunmurti.substack.com/p/where-are-we-in-the-energy-cycle

we’re neighbors!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/12/01/total-pulls-investment-north-sea-response-sunaks-windfall-tax/ Total joins Shell in cutting North Sea investments due to Windfall tax ..

Me too

All of the above! Tomahawks or thick cut Rib eyes if I have to pick!

Steaks and beers. It’s Saturday.

https://boereport.com/2022/08/16/column-appalling-new-historical-precedent-surplus-cash-flow-cannot-solve-worlds-energy-problems-by-design/

Thx for sharing that. Interesting.

https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/east/2022/08/11/679611.htm

Also bought in on July 6th, 2022, Sanjeev. You weren't alone.

They are simply offering a price they are willing to pay to acquire the outstanding shares. I’m sure most of us have placed a low ball bid on the shares of a company we like at some point. Based on their condition, it’s up to the majority of the minority to ultimately make the decision, not Fairfax nor the Consortium. That’s what makes it fair. The sellers decide if they like the price. If you don't like the price, just vote no with your shares.

Yes and I wonder if Sokol will perhaps move into an bigger role over time. Also, on Dec 31/2021 ATCO closed $14.18. The annual report shows carrying value at $922m vs. fair value at $1,286m. Depending if the deal is completed and at what price .. the fair value would be north of this. Wondering if this transaction could result in a mark up in the carrying value? Not too sure but if any accountants know - please share. Might be another positive for Fairfax's reported book value.

I don't follow this logic? 1. The proposed takedown is money coming from the Consortium to the minority shareholders. 2. Atlas buyback is money coming from Atlas to buyback stock off the open market. How is this comparable?

I agree. It's the majority of the minority that will ultimately decide if that pricing makes sense and whether the deal is consumated. With ~68% owned by the consortium, that leaves ~32% for the minority so about ~16% in favour will push it through. I suspect the board will follow up in due course with an independant valuation. Prices will be compared, the board will provide an opinion and the consortium may or may not sweeten the offer. Regardless, just cast your votes when the time comes to represent your individual position and we'll all live with the outcome knowing the majority decides. That's business. Nothing "unfair" about it. The outcome is entirely in the hands of the minority shareholders.

Yes, correct. Thats what I intended to convey but probably could have chose my words better.

Yes. You have to wait 1 calendar year after the withdrawal is made but you’ll be able to contribute all those funds back + 2023 allowance once were in 2023. Edit: Assumes your maxed out already. https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/services/tax/individuals/topics/tax-free-savings-account/making-replacing-withdrawals-a-tfsa.html

SGY.to

I’ve reviewed Surge, Baytex, Whitecap and Meg so far. There is a common theme echoing from the board rooms right now wrt cash distribution after debt reduction. Whitecap just did the XTO acquisition granted but they confirmed on the call today the distribution plans remain in tact, simply pushed back a bit. They felt the opportunity offered the greatest long term return potential. We’ll see, I guess. I definitely get a different vibe this cycle though.

Great summary. Looking forward to the CC tomorrow. (1 edit ... buyback was 156K shares not 156M)

Interesting read. Academic paper out of Yale analyzing the Russia/Ukraine situation. A very good summary of the energy markets included within. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193 Slide deck was also provided. https://yale.app.box.com/s/7f6agg5ezscj234kahx35lil04udqgeo