Libs
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Posts posted by Libs
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On 12/17/2023 at 7:23 AM, Spekulatius said:
Good summary of the current state in Ukraine:
Thanks Spec.
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46 minutes ago, Xerxes said:
I should say that in October I did the unthinkable (buying on top of the chart) by adding to my FFH position at $1084 CAD raising that average cost from $500 CAD.
I did this too, and it was uncomfortable. But it's a skill that needs to be developed.
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On February 4, 2014, Educatedidiot made this brilliant post. I got me interested in XPEL, which became a mega-bagger (I think 15X.) A 7- figure score. If he is still around- thank you!
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10 hours ago, valueventures said:
Big fan of these holdings. Curious to hear how you’re weighting them. Thanks!
All are 6% positions, with the exception of CASH, which I built to 10% when it hit the low 40's this year. But I will pare it back to 6% (cost basis) if /when it hits $55.
I've experimented over the years with much higher weightings, (I'd have gladly gone to 12% each in my younger days!) but I'm older now, and have more to lose; I've also finally absorbed the truth of the coffee-can approach and will just let these ride unless something fundamental gets broken.
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12 hours ago, rohitc99 said:
Will dearly miss him. This quote from him got me through some of the toughest times in life
" You should never, when facing some unbelievable tragedy, let one tragedy increase into two or three through your failure of will.
He said that after losing his 9 year-old son. I've never forgotten it, and it has helped me enormously also. You simply have no choice other than to carry on.
Thank you for everything, Charlie.
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Thank you, and thanks for COBF.
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On 9/21/2023 at 9:22 AM, Sweet said:
I don’t know guys. I’d argue that if you are very smart, you should be smart enough to get out of your own way.
You're confusing intelligence with wisdom. They are very distinct things. My friends who are engineers and doctors are very bright, but lack any common 'investing' sense. Buffett (and Munger) are right - once you hit a certain minimum level of intelligence, temperament drives your investment returns.
God knows I'm proof of that.
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6 hours ago, Parsad said:
Had no idea that actor Edward Norton was this involved in the digital media game. Cheers!
You gave me a heart attack, I thought he'd died....
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This week I topped off each member of my "Magnificent Seven."
JOE
HQI (oops!)
FAIRFAX
CNSWF
LMGIF (Lumine)
XPEL
SCHW
CASH
Ok, so "Magnificent Eight." They are equal positions. If as a group, this pile of money doesn't double in 5 years, my confidence will be shattered because I'm in love with every one of these. (One will probably flame out, I have no idea which).
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https://www.ft.com/content/91b7b634-9f63-4f5b-9cd4-3b838b9b51e7
Yuan hits 16- year low. Good luck with that 'world's currency' thing.
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Along those lines- after enduring the Northridge quake ( we were just a few miles from the epicenter, it was pure hell), I was stunned to see Buffett come up with this little nugget. The man is hell of a bookie.
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1996-11-18-mn-386-story.html
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That is nutty.
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19 hours ago, Luca said:
Yes because China executes a model that has not been executed in the US but that could end up being superior.
There is zero chance this is true. I'm sorry Luca, but you are delusional about this.
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<Focusing on that one theoretical time when there is a snow blizzard and you must haul a grand piano on a dirt road within the next 5 minutes or your family dies >
This made me laugh.
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18 hours ago, Maxwave28 said:
Below is my look thru earnings calculation, I am at a similar earnings yield of 4.8% on $353bn (i get to the portfolio yield by grossing up the top 5 holdings as indicative of the portfolio at large) or ~$16.9bn but think we have subtract dividends paid to BRK of about ~$4.7bn as those are already in operating earnings. Therefore I get to an incremental pre tax look thru earnings of $12.1bn apply a 10% discount for some taxes and I get to $10.9 of incremental look thru earnings to BRK. If we annualize the $10bn of operating earnings to $40bn and add the $10.9bn then perhaps run rate total look thru earnings maybe ~$50.9bn on a market cap ~$760bn equates to a look thru earnings yield ~6.7%.
See my calculation below. Please rip it apart as I am guessing I missed something.
Thank you. Very helpful.
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7 minutes ago, Charlie said:
Barron´s take on the second quarter:
Cheers!
I think the $10B /quarter is a reasonable number as a baseline. I use look- through to value Berkshire; does anyone have an estimate of what the undistributed earnings of the stock portfolio is? If it's around $10B, we're looking at look-through of $10B X 4 quarters = $40B + $10B= $50B.
$768B market cap / $50B is ~15X.
Hoping someone has this handy, so I can be lazy & not calculate it myself!
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1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:
He should have had a talk with Moynihan about that 2 years ago. Might have saved him a hundred billion.
Bingo. Yet another example of Buffett, just using common sense, saving our bacon. It's pretty jarring to think about highly paid CEO's stretching to ten year treasuries to 'make'.....another 1.5%. I honestly have a hard time wrapping my head around that one.
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16 hours ago, Spooky said:
Ya I read a bunch of performance documentation that the S&P 600 has significantly outperformed the Russell 2000 and I think it is because the profitability requirement cuts out a lot of companies. (credit to @Spekulatius for pointing me in this direction)
I went with the Vanguard one, VIOO
SPSM works too.
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Re BNSF- these are significant revenue declines in consumer products. Anyone know what's going on? Has shipping shifted from the west coast to some other port? Should this be viewed as permanent?
<Operating revenues from consumer products were $1.9 billion in the second quarter and $3.8 billion in the first six months of 2023, decreases of 22.7% and 17.0%, respectively, from 2022. The revenue declines were attributable to volume decreases of 16.1% in the second quarter and 16.2% in the first six months of 2023 compared to 2022 and lower average revenue per car/unit. The volume decreases were primarily due to lower intermodal shipments resulting from lower west coast imports, the loss of an intermodal customer and competition from lower spot rates in the trucking market which has impacted our domestic intermodal demand>
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Are you guys sure about the market multiples you're throwing out there? I'm seeing RSP, the S & P equal weight, at 16X. Below that, mid and small cap value ETF's are around 12X. These are forward earnings, but I don't think that reflects expectations of a big jump in earnings next year.
My point is, there are reasonable multiples available outside tech / the magnificent 7 via ETF's, not to mention many of the individual names discussed on hits board. IMO.
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20 hours ago, brobro777 said:
Oh man I want to short the market so bad
I guess I have no choice but to add to my position in Philip Morris
That Bloomberg article is eye-opening. QQQ puts ARE cheap. ATM (385) December 2025's are at $35. So if QQQ drops from 380 to 345 you break even. That's just a 10% drop. And you have ~28 months!
If QQQ retraces to where it started 2023- at 260- you make 2.8 to 1 at expiry.
Meanwhile the ATM Dec 2025 calls cost twice as much: $70. Yikes!
I may dabble in this.
Anyone have other hedging ideas?
P.S. Not experienced in this. Do your own math
https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com/calculator/long-call.html
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Chomsky (to his credit) was on a conservative talk show years ago, and after a long anti- U.S. rant, the host calmly said: "I'm not here to debate you, I just want clarity. So, would you say the existence of the United States of America has been a net positive or negative for the world?"
Chomsky: "Negative."
Loony indeed.
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Blakehampton,
You are wise to ask this question at such a young age. When I was 30, just starting out, I was naively running my thumb down a list of P/E's and declaring Washington Mutual a great bet because it was only 8X earnings. I thought that was all that mattered. My point is, you're going to learn a lot about how to value stocks; it's not going to be just cash flow or just the balance sheet. It truly depends on the company and industry.
I'm 61, and have been doing this for 31 years. Lots of lessons learned along the way, tons of mistakes, but it's worked out very well (unless I blow it in the home stretch).
Here are some specific things I've experienced.
1) I lost 25% of my net worth in one day in a single stock. Turned out instead of selling used cars in to Africa, it was a an arms-smuggling operation. The whole thing was too good to be true, of course.....the numbers were made up. I still feel like an idiot admitting to it today. I had gotten caught up in group-think and wishful thinking.
2) Many years later a company called Valeant had, in their reports, a table showing the growth of some of their divisions, or possibly their recent roll-ups. It doesn't matter. What matters is how they presented it. It went like this:
division / growth
A 20%
B 30%
C 15%
D 1%
E 22%
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Avg = 18%.
Sounds great, right? Except Division D was huge and dwarfed the others in size. The weighted average, which is what matters, was really like 3%! Had I owned that stock I would have sold it right there, based just on that piece of chicanery. And it did collapse from fraud. I guess I had learned something...
3) I was poking around XPEL and found a post where someone described their moat. It all suddenly made sense to me. I did some modest industry checks that confirmed it, and voila, a few years later it was a 70- bagger. You never know, if you read enough, where you will find that nugget of info that clinches the idea for you. It might even be Jim Cramer ( I know, I know).
General lessons, mostly learned the hard way:
1) There are some people on this board who can make you rich if you learn from them. The posted stock ideas are a great place to see how ideas are vetted.
2) Never buy a stock based on a guru. Always do your own DD, or you will have weak hands and sell at the first sign of trouble.
3) Hold on to your best ideas like grim death. The coffee can approach works. See Dealraker's posts on this.
4) When your thesis is broken, sell. Avoid style drift.
5) You're young enough to test out different strategies. Do it, with money. You need to have skin in the game to learn anything.
6) Post ideas. Be grateful if someone tears apart your thesis. They did you a favor.
7) There is always someone smarter than you in this game. Try to identify them and learn from them.
8 Unethical management - avoid no matter how cheap the stock looks.
9) Melting ice cubes- same
10) It hurts to spend days / weeks on an idea, fall in love with it- then the last thing on your check list is a deal-breaker. Just move on anyway.
11) As Gregmal says, the spreadsheet people will miss out. Getting the core idea right is always more important.
12) Don't let macro fears stop you from buying something good.
13) Be open-minded. Principles are forever but landscapes change.
14) Accept that great investors can have polar opposite opinions on the same stock. That's ok.
15) Know the bear case. Why is it wrong?
16) Read Buffett and Munger, then read them again. The best posters here have adopted their foundation and built on top of it.
17) Temperament > brains in the long run. If you have both- look out!
18) Review your winners and ask if you were just lucky. Review your losers and take full accountability.
I wish I'd started at 21. Good luck to you!
-Your best investments for 2024 and beyond-
in General Discussion
Posted
CASH
SCHW
XPEL
JOE
HQI
Fairfax
I would add Lumine and Constellation, but they are due for a breather next year.