Luke 532

Agreed. Berkowitz would likely take par plus unpaid dividends since 2012. Obama is in a tight spot if he wants to keep those documents from public view. 7 weeks... ticktock.

Gretchen Morgenson Trump Treasury May Mean Independence for Fannie and Freddie http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/02/business/trump-treasury-may-mean-independence-for-fannie-and-freddie.html?smid=tw-share

"No private party will ever invest money into any private firm if it knows that some artful maneuver like the NWS could be used to strip them of all their capital whenever the government wished to do so. The only way for the Trump administration to win the long-term struggle over restructuring Fannie and Freddie is to put an end to the current impasse over the NWS." this is the core point that mnuchin understands and noone in obama administration understands. if you want to privatize GSEs you have to make clear that NWS has not advantaged govt...except for pulling forward timing of receipt of monies otherwise due under original agreement Bingo.

Epstein... http://www.forbes.com/sites/richardepstein/2016/12/02/settling-the-fannie-freddie-fiasco-steven-mnuchin-reverse-the-obama-administration-scorched-earth-litigation-strategy-if-they-hope-to-privatize-fannie-and-freddie/#5e6cf6786cf6 Settling the Fannie Freddie Fiasco: Steven Mnuchin Reverse the Obama Administration Scorched Earth Litigation Strategy If They Hope to Privatize Fannie and Freddie

Wallison... http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/fnma-and-fmcc-preferreds-in-search-of-the-elusive-10-bagger/msg266018/?topicseen#msg266018 http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/fnma-and-fmcc-preferreds-in-search-of-the-elusive-10-bagger/msg265330/?topicseen#msg265330 http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/fnma-and-fmcc-preferreds-in-search-of-the-elusive-10-bagger/msg229141/?topicseen#msg229141

Which scenario? I think he means FMCCL on par minus dividends as resolution. I agree, it would be awful. I mentioned it since it's a possibility.

I have FNMAS, FNMAH, and FMCCL, in that order of current dollar amounts. Of those 3, liquidity is best on FNMAS and discount to par is best on FMCCL*. FNMAH is in the middle on both metrics. *roughly $22 have been paid in dividends over the life of FMCCL (if my math is correct) so if the scenario arises where par minus dividends paid is the resolution, then FMCCL would only settle for $28 ($50-$22).

I think both prefs and common kill it. It may be important to remember that Mnuchin is on the Board of SHLD with Berkowitz so surely they've discussed Fannie, and Berkowitz only owns prefs. It's possible Mnuchin converts prefs to common. I only own prefs. Just a thought.

See 4:40 mark... http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/5229369696001/?#sp=show-clips Mnuchin paraphrase: "GSE's will be restructured and safe and out of government control. Top 10 list of things that we'll get done in the Trump Administration and we'll get it done relatively fast."

The Big Short movie (paraphrased)... Vinny: "We sell when the market opens. 30 cents on the dollar. Not bad." Baum: "They're worth three-times that. We're not giving out any lifeboats." FNMAS at about 30% of par.

Maria Bartiromo's twitter feed says it's either Dimon or Mnuchin and that Dimon has already said he's not interested. Announcement expected on Friday.

Here it is: http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000568562&play=1

i have consistently viewed an investment in fnma to be all about handicapping the litigation, and have generally discounted political machinations regarding reform proposals. and in the last two days, fnma common is up over one third. on a purely political, nonlitigation event move. it is startling to see a president-elect who has as informal economic advisors mnuchin (and he may become formal after inauguration), paulsen (who advises on housing issues!), and icahn, all of whom have a very predictably shareholder-favorable orientation. who knew? Keep in mind Mnuchin is on the Board of SHLD. Berkowitz is on the Board of SHLD. Berkowitz had also publicly endorsed Trump prior to the election. Preferred shares will be thought of kindly in Trump's administration. And don't forget Ken Blackwell who is on the transition team. He was Director of the pro-GSE shareholder group Coalition for Mortgage Security back in the day. http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/04/07/in-washington-friends-of-fannie-freddie-are-multiplying/ There are at least a handful of influential people that are pro-GSE shareholders that will be directly advising Trump.

Bingo. I see almost nil chance of Trump taking up the fight against preferred shareholders especially when one of his advisors (Paulson) owns preferred and others he knows well (Icahn, etc) are invested.

Excellent points, onyx. Other pluses I see: Gene Sperling out of the picture. Smaller chance judges will fear executive branch intimidation for ruling against government. Fresh start with no administrative misdeeds to hide gives Trump flexibility. Any ruling being held until after election are now clear for release. Perry appeal? Trump is deal & transaction oriented, and he responds to money. Sale of warrants might prove irresistible. Minuses: Corker is influential and has been floated as potential SoS. Republicans in general have bought the Big Lie that GSEs are evil and must go.

OK, so what are the odds Obama allows the gravy train of stolen money to benefit Trump and his administration while simultaneously putting part of the fate of his legacy in Trump's hands? It seems to me he has 3 options to consider over the next 2 months prior to Trump being sworn-in: (1) settle the lawsuits (2) recap/release (3) do nothing and pass it on to Trump Discussion on these options... (3) To me, it seems like a big risk for Obama to allow the lawsuits to continue and give Trump the power over what to do as the defendant. Trump could very easily admit the government was wrong and say it was all Obama's fault, all the while Trump would get the credit for righting the wrong. (3) It also seems very risky for Obama not to settle or recap/release before Trump is sworn in because those documents would be available to Trump and it would give him plenty of ammunition to "drain the swamp," so to speak. (1) or (2) By recap/release or settle, Obama could still save part of his legacy by "saving" the housing market and making taxpayers a bunch of money. (1) or (2) By recap/release or settle, Obama would also be potentially killing the possibility of all those documents being released to the public... at least in the near future. So, my question for the board is, what do you think the odds are that Obama gives Trump the lawsuits and NWS to deal with during his term as the next President? I personally don't think that's very likely and I'd be absolutely shocked if this isn't mostly resolved by mid-January.

Corrigan opinion released today. https://www.cadc.uscourts.gov/internet/opinions.nsf/

DeMarco: "It is time for the end of the conservatorships — and taxpayer risk that it brings — of Fannie and Freddie." http://www.timesnews.net/Business/2016/11/07/Unfinished-business.html?ci=featured&lp=1&ti=

From Peter A. Chapman... The government filed a Notice this afternoon advising that it has delivered paper copies of the 56 documents to the Federal Circuit as directed in the Court's Oct. 27 order. A copy of the Notice is attached to this e-mail message. 17-104-0015.pdf

Epstein...Further Stalling on Fannie and Freddie Discovery http://www.forbes.com/sites/richardepstein/2016/10/31/further-stalling-on-fannie-and-freddie-discovery/#145035e125ef

Podesta e-mail (via Wikileaks) discussing FHFA and uses terms such as "nationalized" https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/5956

Lawyers, thoughts on the attached? FHFA drops opposition to settlement involving Freddie Mac and PwC. 55-Withdrawal.pdf

Seems like a pretty quick turnaround!

From Peter A. Chapman... The Federal Circuit has directed Fairholme to respond to the government's petition by Thurs., Nov. 2, and the Court has directed the United States to file a reply by Mon., Nov. 7, and submit copies of the 56 documents the government doesn't want to produce to the Federal Circuit for in camera review. A copy of the Court's order entered this afternoon is attached to this e-mail message. 17-104-0005.pdf

Given Sweeney's rock solid 81 page reasoning behind her order to produce the 50+ docs, how long do we think it will take for this to reach a final appeal decision? Additionally, will this appeal of the motion to compel delay the Perry appeal decision or is there no impact on the timing of that case (at least in theory)? Thanks in advance.