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DTEJD1997

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Everything posted by DTEJD1997

  1. Using the discount on the used American cars makes sense if you have a way to get them fixed cheaply and easily (let's say you're a mechanic). But if they break down less than once in a blue moon, but if they break down more often and you need to take time off from work/find alternative transportation when they break then costs are piling up really quick and you blow through the discount in no time. You've got a point...but it depends on how much a discount you get....If you can buy a 8 year old Buick with 70k miles on it for $3k....you very well might be able to run it another 70k+ miles. Will it be in the garage for repairs? Yes, most definitely...but if this is kept to 1-2 days a year or so it is probably worth it.
  2. Hey all: I and my family have owned many, many GM cars over the years, along with Ford's and German makes... GM has no doubt improved their quality...but it is frequently BELOW what it should be, especially for their higher end models. Why do we keep buying them? Partially because we are stubborn...but even more importantly, because we can get them stupidly, unbelievably cheap. (used) Sure, the quality is not as good as the Japanese, but when you get such a HUGE discount, it is hard to say no. GM has a MAJOR, MAJOR, MAJOR problem with their dealers....some are actually OK, but a disturbing number are like carnival hucksters. The stories I could tell! I've never encountered dealers as stupid as GM dealers...
  3. Hey all: I think quite a few people simply have no idea how much luck plays a role in their lives... A). The fact that you were born at the time you were, instead of say 1300 A.D. B). The fact that you were born in America or a Western democracy. C). The people who you met & interacted with. D). The teachers & professors who you were assigned. E). A handful of multiple choice questions on aptitude or admissions tests can have the final say on which school or college you gain admission to. F). Once admitted to school, a few multiple choice questions or a few sentences can make the difference between a "C+" and an "A-". With an "A-", you get the chance to advance to the career you want. With a "C+", you are done. G). How did you meet your spouse? Luck plays a huge factor in that. H). I was flying in/out of NYC & Atlanta on 9.9.01 & 9.10.01. Had I been flying a couple days later, my life might be very different, or might have ended! Hard work & skill certainly is required, but there are plenty of skilled, hard working people who don't achieve levels of success that others do... So yes, luck plays a huge role in life that I don't think a lot of people consider or think much about.
  4. There are spill-over effects on nearby towns with populations of between 100,000-300,000 when their neighboring city with over 6.5 million inhabitants see detached prices rise by so much. Just a small migration of people priced out of the GTA or selling out of their homes in the GTA and relocating elsewhere will have outsized impact on smaller towns. They're migrating to London, Windsor and Thunder Bay? Hey all: I know many Canadians. Of the ones I know, they live(d) in Windsor. A lot of youn(ish) folks in Windsor try to come to the USA. A lot try to work in the Detroit area because of the economic opportunities available to them in the USA. They explain to me that if you are older, or well established, Canada is a great place to be...but if you are young, and not connected, it is difficult. At least this is in the Windsor area. I always found this to be very odd...
  5. Not sure I agree with either of these statements. An unemployed surgeon is more valuable than an unemployed ditch digger. Price does not equal value. Free education does not devalue the education. The price is just a transaction price. Look at the Chinese cities built upon free IP, they are in fact more valuable because they have removed the transaction cost. Most education and information is already out there to learn freely. Heck, I can download a med school's worth of textbooks and watch all the lectures online. That is not the reason we don't have a civilization filled with doctors, engineers, etc. Consequence matters Two students from similar backgrounds using student loans to pay for school (equal opportunity); one studies engineering, the other studies literature. On graduation both work as a barista, whilst looking for a job. But the engineer gets a conditional sweetener from an o/g company to work in a crap location (ie: Libya, Alaska, etc.) for 2 years, with a 10K sign-up loan repayment; the literature graduate remains a barista. The job offer, & sweetener, were made because the engineer had in-demand skills; which the literature graduate did not have - the literature skills had no commercial value. Think of the humble MBA. If the only place you can get one is an Ivy School, there would be very few MBA's, they would all come from the same families, and they would all get paid extremely well - including the idiots. Add a few loans, scholarships, & competitive entry; the supply rises, the pay remains good, but you can now at choose between candidates. Now make it free & remove the competitive entry (we're all 'equal'); everybody gets an MBA, & the pay plummets on the excess supply. We have just made an MBA - the new BComm, and the old BComm - essentially a college diploma. Credential devaluation. Theoretically a room full of PhD's is more valuable than a room full of ditch diggers; but if the PhD output is just research papers that go nowhere, the ditch diggers are actually more useful ('pushback' that academic 'experts' are now discovering). The PhD's don't actually become useful until they are married up with VC in an incubator - & collectively start producing new product or services. Obviously, not popular views. Let the markets signals do their thing, & the chips fall where they may SD SD: I am not sure where you are based...but I am going to guess it is not in the USA. One of the big problems, and there are MANY, is that there are "false" signals being sent out about education. Many "schools" are lying about the outcomes of their students, the wages that they earn, and the value of the degree they confer. To compound the problem, they are legally allowed to do this. One example of this was one of the lawsuits against Cooley Law Skool. The judge found the skool not guilty because prospective students are "sophisticated consumers" and they should have known that Cooley's representations were false. From one of the lawsuits against Cooley Law School: Judge Quist points out that for the class of 2010 Cooley was previously able to report on employment reports that are “inconsistent, confusing, and inherently untrustworthy” (decision, page 16) and “so vague and incomplete as to be meaningless” (decision, page 22) http://abovethelaw.com/2012/07/class-action-lawsuit-against-thomas-m-cooley-law-school-dismissed/2/ So you can see that schools are allowed to publish "inherently untrustworthy" statistics & figures. There is no problem with that in the court's opinion. The ABA won't revoke skools accreditation either. So what recourse does a student have when they find out they have a worthless/defective education? In the USA, you can't bankrupt out of your student loans. A very bad situation to be sure!
  6. Hey all: Here is another small piece of evidence that "education" has become corrupted and it's all about how much $$$ the educators can get their hands on through student loans.... In Michigan, there are some law schools where 1/2, OR LESS of their students pass the bar exam. Of course, if you do not pass the bar exam, you don't get to practice law. If you don't get to practice law, how do you get employment as an attorney? These same schools publish figures showing that something like 90% of their graduates get jobs...I don't get the math... Additionally, the catastrophic failure rates are NOT a 1 time fluke event. This has been going on for a few years now. One of the "schools" is admitting a good percentage of people who scored SO LOW on their LSAT, that they simply would have been better off randomly selecting answers (A,B,C,D). The LSAT is 200 questions, so if you simply guess "C" to every question, you should get about 50 correct answers...This school has a good chunk of people who can't get 50/200 correct on the LSAT. So what has happened, is that some lower ranked schools are simply taking anybody who wants to come and can get student loans. It does not matter if they are likely to pass the bar. The important thing is that the school gets the money. This is also an indictment of the quality of their education. If you are good enough to pass your classes, you should be good enough to pass the bar exam. OR could it be that the schools are simply passing people along from class to class, year to year, to simply get more money? This problem is not limited to Michigan. There is an even WORSE problem with this in California. It is starting to creep into other states too. Many law school deans are on record saying they face the dilemma of laying people off/shutting down OR lowering admission standards to stay open. Then you've got the problems with the ABA. The ABA accredits law schools. Where are they? What are they doing? How can schools where 1/2 or less of their graduates keep their accreditation? How are they not even put on probation? So the Department of Education is finally stepping in and has pulled the Charlotte School of Law ability to get student loan funding. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/07/business/dealbook/for-profit-charlotte-school-of-law-loans.html?_r=0 The law school problem is only the tip of the iceberg....
  7. The government is already paying for it...Just how much of the current batch of student loans is going to be paid back? How about this? How about the students pay for it? No more student loans! How about the educators are held accountable for their actions? Why are there so many lawsuits against "for profit" skools? Why are there so many lawsuits against law skools? Why are there so many "scam blogs"? How about the skools have to tell the TRUTH about the product that they sell? Those that are good, do well. Those educators that are simply trying to rip off the system or collect a paycheck can hit the bricks? I read an article about a financial planner that is telling parents that they need to put away $500 to $1,000 a month, every month, for their children's college education. That in 20 years, a college education could easily cost $400k. I would posit that if a college education costs $400k, it will not have an economic return for the VAST majority of students. Take that $400k and buy property or a business, or investments. Who is going to have $400k for an education? If you don't have $400k, and borrow it, how are you going to repay it? What happens if interest rates go up? If you are paying 7% on a $400k loan, you are going to be paying close to $30k a year in INTEREST alone. I work with some young attorneys. Their situation and job/life prospects are truly pitiable. They will NEVER be able to enter the middle class. A good chunk of them have $250K+ in student loan debt. They work "contract" jobs for $22/hour. Work comes & goes...so it is hard to get in a full 2,000 hours a year. If you work 1,700 hours a year, how are you going to pay for your expenses AND pay back your loans? I am absolutely passionate about how education has been corrupted. It has ruined, many, many peoples lives.
  8. An interesting question! I would counter that it is MUCH better for a city to $300 or $400 a year in taxes than nothing... Also, a property that is having it's tax paid is more likely to have somebody living in it and making repairs, picking up trash, keeping the crackheads & urban miners at bay, etc. There is a massive, Massive, MASSIVE problem with properties being behind in taxes, and properties simply abandoned. Large areas of the city are vacant...block after block after block. There was a report saying that something like 65,000 structures need to be demolished in the city of Detroit...I am going to guess that 99% of those properties are not paying taxes. I also have heard of property owners simply REFUSING to pay property taxes...Why should they? They will probably not be evicted from the property for back taxes. A lien is simply placed on the title...The property owners are not worried about that, because the market value is zero, or very close to it. In that case, a lien is ineffectual. The city of Detroit, they also have alternate revenue generating schemes besides property tax. For example, there is a LOCAL income tax. I also think the city gets a cut of sales tax. There is also a "personal property tax" for businesses that have more than a certain amount of inventory and fixtures....is it $75k? Detroit also gets a taste of the taxes paid by the 3 MEGA casinos. If it were not for the casinos, the city would have been bankrupted many years ago. They also get money from writing tickets & civil asset forfeiture. I am also sure there are ways that I don't know about or simply forgot to list...
  9. Smallcap: I did my undergraduate work in Grand Rapids. A wonderful place to be, and some of the best times of my life were there...I often think of going back there...I love West Michigan! Your houses tax value is $31k, and the tax bill is $1,853? Residential property tax is 6% in Holland? That seems a bit high! ****************** On a different note.... I went through an old neighborhood. My Dad used to have his law office there, and I spent many, many, many hours there. It is improving!!!! Some of the liquor stores have even reopened! Of course, not everything is perfect and it is still a VERY rough neighborhood. I am not kidding when I say it is "rough". Things got so bad in that area, that even a bunch of the liquor/party stores shut down. Besides gambling and fighting, Detroiters LOVE TO DRINK BEER/WINE/LIQUOR. So you know when even the liquor stores are shutting down, THINGS ARE BAD. Another further sign of improvement is the house that I lived in high school, now is no longer boarded up! It is still vacant, but maybe somebody is going to start to improve it? Maybe even make it habitable to live in? Sadly, this neighborhood is literally MAD/MAX, warzone type of area. Heroin & other drugs have really been bad for this area (when is heroine ever good?)...many houses have been leveled, many are burned out (looking like a war zone) and many are boarded up, and many are vacant. I've often thought about maybe doing a photography experiment....take photos of the buildings, photo shop out any cars, and make the photos black & white. Maybe artificially age them and make them scratchy looking. A casual observer might think it from WWII inside of Germany maybe? Maybe if Saturday is bright and sunny, and I'm feeling particularly adventurous, I'll take some photos. it is one thing to read me babbling on about the weird goings on in Detroit, yet another thing to see it...
  10. RB: I don't need to know who is and who isn't specifically. I am just wondering in general if it is worth it. Don't want/need any specifics, just looking for the view from 30k feet up.
  11. Hey all: I very strongly suspect that some members here are also members of the "Value Investors Club". Can anybody confirm this? I've often thought that if one was a member of VIC, you would be very employable as an analyst, as you would get access to the ideas as they are posted. Additionally, through the years, some of my investments have been the winners of the contest. Not very often, but probably six times in the last ten years maybe. So for anybody who is a member, is it worth the time/effort?
  12. HOLY SMOKES! What is going on in Canada, eh? What do people do in Toronto that enables them to buy $1mm shacks? Hell, for a couple few million, they could buy most of the town I live in! I'm not that far away from Canada either....Heck, I can sometimes see Canada when I go on a long walk or bike ride... That is a bubble for sure...only question is how long it is going to take before it blows apart.
  13. Well, if you want to teach your 8 year old about investing/collecting, I would do 3 things.... A). Get a "Red Book" that lists the value of all USA coins. B). Go to a reputable coin dealer and get $50 or $100 of unsearched wheat pennies. Have your child search through them for "rarer" dates & mint marks. I've done this myself many times. It is time consuming, but easy to do. I've found $15 & $20 pennies sometimes! Obviously those are pretty rare, but you should be able to find pennies that are worth $.50, $1, $2, or so. A great return for a few cents! That should get your child's interest C). Once they have learned about the pennies, and are ready to move on to slightly more advanced/valuable things...go to banks and get rolls of $.50 pieces. Most people know that ones before 1965 are 90% silver, but fewer people know that halves from 1965 to 1970 are 40% silver. I've found 40% silver coins many times. Obviously these are worth substantially more than $.50. I know people that make some serious money doing this. Of course, they have a route and have scaled it up. Finally, another thing you can do is look for copper pennies, 1982 and before. The melt value of these are greater than $.01, depending on the market price of copper. It is one of the best investments that you can make! It will never be worth LESS than a penny! It could be worth substantially more if the price of copper goes up...Truly a NO LOSE situation!
  14. Hey all: Thanks for all the interest and comments, I appreciate it. I don't think the specialized law firms would work too well....they take 1/2 of the savings. They would therefore have to get an 80%+ reduction to equal what I got on the first round. I just don't think they would have been able to do that, no matter how "juiced in" they are. I did a little checking around and here in Michigan, property tax work does not really seem to be that big a business...as compared to Texas, where it well developed. From the little bit of research that I did, I got the very distinct impression that the firms involved with it would probably not be interested in "small potatoes" like me. They appear to be dealing with large commercial developments (malls, factories, etc.). That leads me to think that this might actually be a good business to go into. It certainly is not "rocket surgery". Heck, I can do it myself! I also want to apologize for not getting pictures of some other interesting real estate situations in the Detroit area. Detroit is kind of like a weird alternate reality. Normal rules of society & economics simply do not always apply here... I exaggerate a little of course, but the stories I could tell about the things I've seen/experienced ONLY in Detroit...
  15. I know a little bit about this... A). I think the decline in baseball and sports cards was the result of speculative bubble in the 90's and that bubble got popped when one (or more) of the sports card manufacturers was found out to have faked numbers of cards produced. They were actually producing much more than they reported in order to give an appearance of scarcity, inflate prices & such. After that...anything other than ultra-rare, very old cards, lost much of their value. A lot of people lost interest.... B). I once had a real estate business partner whose wife was putting a substantial part of her retirement on "beanie babies". She had a WHOLE room of their house to store these things and show them off. She was travel through the midwest to get them...going to McDonalds 100 miles away, in the middle of nowhere, buying 100 value meals simply to try and get a "rare" beanie baby. Last I heard, she still has them all, but is looking at a 99%+ loss. Obviously, her retirement plans have changed.... C). When I was growing up, my father and I collected electric trains, primarily Lionel. We would go to garage sales looking for them. One of my Dad's best friends had one of the best collection of trains in the whole country. Hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of them...Through the years, I lost almost my trains...wish I still had some of them! D). I used to collect stamps also. The market in stamps has shrunk, and has largely moved online. Very few retail stores have any serious inventory of them. You simply don't see much interest in them. I imagine the very, very rare & old ones still retain value...but would be skeptical of their value unless you know EXACTLY what you are doing. E). I have been seriously buying and selling precious metal and coins (silver & gold) for a few years now. This is a good market, and easy to learn the basics. I think that it is important for serious people who have assets, to have some percentage of them in physical gold & silver. I had arguments with family members about this for a long time. They simply didn't really think it was that important....UNTIL their former employer entered bankruptcy and their pensions got cut a little bit. That really caught their attention. You can go all across the spectrum and there are certainly some "gold bugs" out there. I think the VAST majority of your wealth should be in stocks, bonds, real-estate and such...but think about this: If you are worth $1MM, 1% of your wealth would be $10,000. If you put 1% of your wealth into gold, that would be about 8 ounces. If you put that into silver, that would be about 550 ounces. Gold & silver are not susceptible to counter party risk. Most financial instruments have that risk, however low it might be. I love to show 5 $20 St. Gaudens and a $100 "gold note" from the 1920's to prospective purchasers. The $100 gold note could have been converted to those almost 5 ounces of gold back in the 20's. It is STILL legal tender, and still worth $100. Which would you rather have? 5 1 ounce gold St. Gauden coins OR the $100 gold note? Think about how many times in the last 100-150 years there have been wars, financial panics, vast inflation, etc. Not too often, but they do happen. Certainly higher than a 1% chance per year. As I've started buying/selling coins, I've also been exposed to jewelry. What an incredible and fascinating market. I would like to learn more about that and ramp that up. Just my thoughts...
  16. Hey all: Well, the bad news came in today... The valuation of the one building was only lowered 38% and the other was lowered 40%. I am a little distressed at how unprofessional the whole situation is. When I got the decision, it is just a standardized, computerized form. No comment as to how the board reached their decision, nothing...just the new valuation. When I went in to contest it, there were standardized forms that you had to fill out, name, address, etc. Towards the end, there is a spot for you to write the reason why you think the valuation is incorrect. You would have a difficult time writing a complete sentence in the space provided. I put together a 3 page argument that used comparable sales, the buildings condition and costs needed to bring it up to a "rentable" condition...and finally a cash flow analysis. What did the valuation board do? Any analysis at all? Even a single sentence? NO. This is just so silly. The NEW TAX VALUATION is only 4X what I paid for the buildings, not the 6X what it formerly was. I wonder if the board members would be willing to buy the buildings for HALF of the tax valuation? I doubt it.... If these buildings are so @#$#%^ valuable, why didn't some other aspiring business man buy them? They were for sale for MONTHS, almost a year. Looks like I'm to the state level next... I guess if it were easy, everybody would be doing it, and everybody would be rich... >:(
  17. Yes, you are 100% correct. I forgot to mention that I got my new tax assessment for the current year and the value went up like $600. I think the assessor's office simply has a simple formula that every property is upped a certain amount EVERY YEAR. If nobody contests over a 20+ year time frame, the assessed and ACTUAL value can be very different...
  18. Hey all: Here is another interesting bit of information that I learned in preparing for my tax hearing. While I think I got a reasonable deal on the property...I am not the only one who got a deal! A commercial building about 1/2 mile from mine sold within the last year. This building is an office building with a small parking lot. I have walked past it numerous times when i go out exercising. It is on the infamous "8 Mile" road! Do not fret though...Mad Max time starts about 1 mile further down 8 Mile. This building is in a relatively safe area. It is at an odd spot, three cities converge at that point...Eastpointe, St. Clair Shores and Harper Woods all come to together at that spot. If you walk about mile to the west, you will hit Detroit proper. Anyways, I estimate the building to be about 10K square feet. It is a two story building. It is currently being rented out to small businesses, offices are $199 a month with all utilities included. I do not know if that includes internet/phone though... One problem with the building though is that you have to climb some stairs to get into it. I don't think it is ADA compliant. Perhaps it is grandfathered in? So how much would you pay for a building like this? Tax assessment puts market value of the building at just under $450k! . . . . . . . . . . . . . . THE BUILDING SOLD FOR $110K. So that is about what I paid, about $11/square foot.
  19. Hey all: I am sorry for the lack of postings & updates in this thread. I've had numerous small things and small problems keep cropping up. It always takes me more energy & time to complete things than I initially think. Also, organization is not my strong suit... With that being said, I do have some interesting information to report: I had the tax hearing the other day. I think it went relatively well, and I should get the results back very soon. Here is ONE of the unusual things that happened... The counter clerk almost jumped when I came in. He said he was shocked that I showed up on time. I queried as to why that is odd. He told me that just over half of the people that schedule a tax protest hearing simply don't show up. OK, I sign in, and fill out the initial forms and then up in front of the board I go... They repeat the same thing. I go into my presentation about how "out of whack the taxes are", and then hand out my paper & research. The board acts confused and what am I doing? I then get confused, and state that the handouts have more details and specifics than what I am talking about. WTF did they think it was? The board members tell me that MOST of the people who show up simply start yelling about "the taxes are too high!" and want to "throw down" with the board members....I did not get the impression that the board members wanted to settle disputes with their fists... I was the only one who looked up comparable sales, used a cash flow analysis, and a repair schedule for the property to show why it was not properly assessed. They said I was by far the best prepared and the only person who had any significant documentation to back up what I asserted. The board wanted to know how I knew what other properties sold for, and how did I get that information??? Simple, I filed the FOI request & got the last 2 years of commercial sales for the city. The board wanted to have a copy of that. I didn't print that up as I figured I was pushing it with 3 pages, and I figured they would have that information in front of them. They weren't aware that this information could be easily pulled... I was also given 30 minutes instead of the usual 10 minutes, as the next scheduled person did not show up. So I think I made my case reasonably well, and I anticipate a good outcome. The board stated that I was easily the most prepared person who came in front of them. I was just surprised at how the actual process went, that so many people don't show up, that those who do simply complain and have little/no facts to back themselves up with... I'll let the board know the result when I get it.
  20. Hey all: Some thought/observations about the Chinese restaurant business. I've lived and traveled in many different parts of the USA, particularly in the Midwest & South. I've been to NYC many times... NYC Chinese, even those that cater to the "white" community are heads & shoulders BETTER than what is generally available in the Detroit/Michigan area. The amount of food preparation HERE is significantly LESS than what was described as happening in NYC. Sauces are NOT prepared fresh. Meat is NOT processed in the restaurant to the degree it is in NYC. Eggrolls are not made fresh, and on and on. Heck, some places even use frozen vegetables! A lot of the restaurants are not clean. Some, I don't know how they pass health inspections. Believe me when I tell you that I am not a neat freak, and am willing to go to some sketchy places... The place that comes closest to the NYC model, BUT STILL FALLS SIGNIFICANTLY short does a BOOMING business. I would not be surprised if these guys are doing $12k in sales per week. They may even be doing more. They usually have two cooks manning the woks, a front counter person, an assistant, and a prep person, a delivery person. No doubt that these people are working hard, very hard...but that does not mean that they have an unbeatable business model. A). Simplify the menu. They have WELL over 100 items. I am going to guess that the top 20 items get 80% of the dollar volume of sales. B). By weight, they give you a silly amount of food. Of course, the majority of that weight is rice, eggroll & vegetables. C). Their prices are eminently reasonable. HOWEVER, would people pay slightly more for LESS food that is higher quality? I strongly suspect they would. D). I've had friends/associates that didn't like Chinese food. Sometimes they thought is was "OK", but not that great. Why is that? They ate at crappy buffets, or simply had no exposure. My ex-girlfriend was like that. She didn't like the food. I took her to some good places and she totally turned around in her opinion. Over the course of a year, it became one of her favorite things. I very much suspect that the population here would be receptive to trying different types of more "authentic" Chinese food if simply given the exposure. E). A lot of the Chinese restaurants have been in my area for DECADES. I suspect they've been passed down from generation to generation. F). Few restaurants are open late. Taco Bell will frequently have a drive through line extending out into the street. What if a Chinese takeout was open late to capture the late night crowd? Carry out only. Maybe combine that with a special, limited menu. Maximize that menu for quickness, efficiency & profitability. So the market here is totally different than the market in other areas of the country. I think it is vulnerable to disruption and or competition. The opportunity does NOT lie in doing things the same as others, but in doing it different & better.
  21. Interesting that you mention this.... One of the many business ideas that I've had is that in my neck of the woods, I think the Chinese takeout is vulnerable to disruption. Why? Lots of the small takeout restaurants are not well run...They are dirty to downright filthy. A good number are downright rundown. The eggrolls are SHOCKINGLY bad, almost inedible. Sometimes the food is not fresh, ie. frozen broccoli...The fried rice is bad...workers are sometimes rude. Sure, the food is usually fairly inexpensive...but who wants 2 lbs of mainly bad rice? What if a competitor came in...and had the following: A). small, clean restaurant B). well trained, polite workers (at least those that faced public) C). slightly higher prices, but higher quality ingredients....All food fresh, including eggrolls D). Slightly smaller portion size. Who needs/wants 3 lbs. of food? E). Open longer hours, hitting late night eaters (carryout only) F). Smaller menu size for efficiency G). All food prepared fresh, no #$%^ steam trays! I think Chinese takeout operators have gotten "fat & lazy" in my area, no real competition in the space. Vulnerable in my eyes...
  22. Hey all: I'm adding a lot of stuff to my watch list... Two areas: 1). Retail, whole sector is going through changes and getting crushed. Going to be a lot of losers, but surely there must be some winners? 2). I'm slowly adding to deleveraging situations. Companies that are CURRENTLY over-leveraged BUT are paying down debt and working to get it under control. One of them is Diversified Restaurants (SAUC). I think it is interesting, I'm watching it...but want to see them execute and get debt paid down. This might be an interesting one to enter into a few quarters from now, ESPECIALLY if they make progress, but still go down in price due to market fluctuations and scaredy catness.
  23. If you are truly serious about taking over/buying out the local Dairy Queen franchise...I would suggest working there first. You don't have to work full time...maybe 2 days a week. After a couple of months, you'll get the inside scoop. You will know what sales are, you will know who the good workers are, who the slackers are.... You will also get a better handle on if it is as profitable as what you think it is. The amount of money needed for Dairy Queen franchise is going to be rather substantial...it is going to be in the order of hundreds of thousands of dollars ($700k), potentially even more than that (up to $1.5MM). In order to take over a franchise, you WILL have to work in the business. You will also have to get approval from the franchisor. You will also have to go through specialized training at corporate HQ. You are going to have to pay the franchisor a substantial transfer fee, which appears to be $35k. The royalty fee is fairly low at 4%, but there is a 5% to 6% mandatory marketing fee too. So you will give up 9% or 10% right off the top. Another thought....if the DQ franchise is poorly run, it might have "negative" goodwill associated with it that is going to take a lot to overcome. Depending on how bad the negative feelings are, might it not be easier to simply open up a competing shop and run them under? Thank you, it sounds like you've got some good experience (or know-how) in this area. Have you owned a franchise in the past? I'm not sure how bad the negative feelings are since I don't live in that city nor have I been there in a long time (for obvious reasons). I have almost no expertise operating a franchise or shop so it's probably best that I don't pursue this idea, but that doesn't stop me from thinking about it. Off the DQ topic, has anyone built a mini-Berkshire of small businesses? No, I've never owned a franchise. HOWEVER, I've studied them a bit (business & law)...and have known people that have owned them. I've seen the inside books on many of them... My conclusion is that if you are young, full of energy, have a good idea, have adequate capital, and have a couple of strong operational people to help, is to bypass becoming a franchisee and do your own concept. Obviously, there are exceptions, as some franchises are incredibly profitable and worth becoming part of, but that is the exception. If you kind of invert the situation and think about it this way.... If you have a restaurant and can CLEAR 10% (franchise fee) after all expenses, you've probably got a pretty good thing going. I know several local operators of various restaurants and they are knocking it out of the park. They are doing their own thing and are incredibly successful. Not franchisees either. Most of these guys spend very little to essentially nothing on advertising also, their product and business does the advertising for them. Word of mouth and happy customers is always the BEST form of advertising.
  24. If you are truly serious about taking over/buying out the local Dairy Queen franchise...I would suggest working there first. You don't have to work full time...maybe 2 days a week. After a couple of months, you'll get the inside scoop. You will know what sales are, you will know who the good workers are, who the slackers are.... You will also get a better handle on if it is as profitable as what you think it is. The amount of money needed for Dairy Queen franchise is going to be rather substantial...it is going to be in the order of hundreds of thousands of dollars ($700k), potentially even more than that (up to $1.5MM). In order to take over a franchise, you WILL have to work in the business. You will also have to get approval from the franchisor. You will also have to go through specialized training at corporate HQ. You are going to have to pay the franchisor a substantial transfer fee, which appears to be $35k. The royalty fee is fairly low at 4%, but there is a 5% to 6% mandatory marketing fee too. So you will give up 9% or 10% right off the top. Another thought....if the DQ franchise is poorly run, it might have "negative" goodwill associated with it that is going to take a lot to overcome. Depending on how bad the negative feelings are, might it not be easier to simply open up a competing shop and run them under?
  25. to fix health care, that is to say, to make it affordable, there needs to be as many health care workers as there are attorneys in your description. i don't believe the problem is of the structure of payment as much as it is supply and demand. well, that is an interesting thought! Obviously, there are simply too many attorneys! Unfortunately, the market for legal education has been distorted for a long,long time. That is one of the reasons why there are so many law suits against law schools. ;D
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