CorpRaider
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FCF... deducting total capex or maintenance capex?
CorpRaider replied to Homestead31's topic in General Discussion
I think he's just saying some bidnesses generate cash but have reinvestment opportunities to deploy said cash at attractive returns. Others dont and management can return it or invest it in other lines of bidness a-la brk. If most managers are not so great at valuing their own shares/bidness, it makes one positively queasy at the prospect of the empire builder, raining shareholders capital all up in the club with his advisors and their pitch books. Ceo will probably be treated like a big honking deal though. Good point though merkhet about why fcf isn't generally computed so as to penalize those wonderful bidnesses that actually have reinvestment opportunities. Of course as we all know the rubber meets the road in determining what is actually sustaining cap ex versus green fields -
Donald Yacktman: "Viewing Stocks as Bonds" | Talks at Google
CorpRaider replied to a topic in General Discussion
I caught that. Sort of rambling to me, but worth watching. Interesting that he said (paraphrasing): Value managers don't have nice offices. if you find a value manager with an opulent office you have to ask yourself where's the disconnect. Made me think of Bruce Berkowitz. -
LOL. This must be the one. I saw it a couple of days ago. It had a picture of the Gecko as road kill left behind by a driverless car. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-30/can-the-insurance-industry-survive-driverless-cars- Could be pretty neat/crazy, especially when combined with the "sharing economy." Driverless vans/buses that run on time and don't strike could seemingly be a huge deal for public transportation.
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Dhil is an interesting bidness, but too rich for my blood so far. chuck akre owns it and i think gayner has a little placeholder position.
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Go nose around at Bogleheads . org and look at some index portfolios. I think there's a wiki entry for the tsp.
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FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
CorpRaider replied to twacowfca's topic in General Discussion
I wont be/wasnt able to listen. Please let us know if anything good was said. It was a pretty unsophisticated look. Wallison pretty much paraded the opinion that Fannie and Freddie have only paid interest and not the principal, remain dangerous and continue to grow, and could need another bailout. No mention of the sweep. Kudlow didn't challenge any of it. It focused more on the fact Fannie/Freddie made a ton of donations to Clintons and Obama in the past (yet they are barred from making any political contributions right now). If you expect anything from him other than worthless idealogical propaganda, you will likely always be disappointed. -
Bought some ARCP. Been dicking around trying to get an $8 target price for several months; decided to go ahead.
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Yeah, that's what the thread is about. One of the Yacktman guys (son or father, can't recall) has been quoted in the past year or so as valuing it conservatively at ~$13. Wally Weitz is long too, albeit just a little position. Someone is selling the stuff hand over fist too, obviously. haha. I really wish COTY and Bart Becht would make another run at this thing, as that guy could surely carve some profits out of all those sales and that distribution network, but it sounds he's got his hands full at the moment. Seems like the AVP mgmt team is sort of terrible; slow to transition to the social network selling in N.A. versus handing out freaking pamphlets. I've got a little placeholder position, earnings will probably be turrible with all the dollar strength and Dilma destroying Brasil and Putin making rubble out of the ruble. New CFO is from J. Crew and was reportedly friendly with TPG prior to their lbo of Jcrew and was retained by the TPG guys after they took over.
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No. Just N-O.
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WAY too frequently. Smartphone apps. When I was a kid, stock prices were in paper weekly and no cable (didn't subscribe to WSJ). I also just like watching the ticker, it would have been cool to have an old tickertape machine. I found this replica one, I think you can hook it up to a network and load it with paper and it will spit out prices, but was too expensive for such a novelty item. I preferred the CNBC ticker that used to show the trade sizes with the price quote. I also like the old 80's black price/information boards with the little red and green light bulbs.
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How to Buy Berkshire for Half Price...
CorpRaider replied to BargainValueHunter's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
Yeah, I've kicked the tires on the boulder complex once or twice. They just combined all the closed end funds including the one with the Wellington hedge funds in it, with the stated purpose of upping the liquidity and adding some yield to close the discount, at least that is my recollection. Looks like RiverNorth has ~25% and Bulldog has some, I know they control like 8% via SPE. But I think Horesj has control of ~ 35%, but those guys are not to be trifled with. You would have to hold it in tax advantaged account as you know there are huge built in gains. Dont want to be the schmuck. -
Of course, you could just Bogle it and hold some intermediate term government bonds purely as "ballast" to reduce the volatility in your overall portfolio rather than trying to do a Jeffrey Gundlach impersonation. Or you could set your AA to 90-10 a la WEB's advice to Astrid's trustee.
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Trouble getting a margin account with Merrill Lynch
CorpRaider replied to FCharlie's topic in General Discussion
Glad to hear they really have this unit humming. Notice anyone missing from the list in the below video? http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000386243&play=1 -
QVAL
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I thought the point about margin was interesting. Would like to hear his thoughts on that.
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What happened to this board?
CorpRaider replied to watsa_is_a_randian_hero's topic in General Discussion
Can you be more specific? I went through your last 100 post history and all stocks mentioned there have a lot of discussion. For example, yesterday, ItsAValueTrap asked if anyone was interested in AAMC/RESI. I explained why I was not, but no one else chimed in with an opinion. AAMC is down 85% from peak and RESI is at 77% of tangible book. Even though I have my issues and reservations with both, I would think someone else would at least have an opinion. I tried to get people to look at Forestar ( an owner of energy assets, timber, and lots of real estate that is down a lot at a decent discount to book and undergoing activism), but there didn't seem to be much traction. I personally find it compelling but am waiting for a little more clarity and progress to size it up. No one cares about ACAS, a BDC at 70% of book (75%) after adjusting for full dilution, it will split into parasite co and host co (asset manager and yield pig BDC) this year. No one cares about Tetragon, 50-60% of book (undiluted and diluted), 6% dividend, decent mix of assets, No one cares about Equity Commonwealth, cheap office REIT chaired by Sam Zell The reality is that several of these are either not spectacularly cheap, have shitty or greedy (or both) management, and there isn't a ton to discuss about them so my expectations should be low. I just think the 1/10 of posts on BH and SHLD (which i still read and sometimes contribute to the problem) should maybe make it to other ideas. I will say I often don't have much to say about small cap australian companies or this or that so it's not like I'm part of the solution. EDIT: And there are much better more interesting ideas posted by others that get little discussion, didn't mean to make this a personal rant I'm long EQC and established the position only long after your initial post. I actually have some limit orders open as I type to add to the position. It also really turned me onto Corvex Keith Meister, whom I am closely following now (and am going to get some ARCP if I can catch a fill @ $8 which is about where I ballparked with $0 value attributed to the non-traded REIT business). Thanks very much! Also, enjoyed the discussion of JOE...it is about a buck away from getting real interesting to me. I've looked at ACAS multiple times, but I can't get comfortable with the people. I'm also trying to limit myself more to opportunities where the agency "costs" inherent in public company governance are in some way minimized (such as having Corvex and Related on the board with Zell running things; or where Berkowitz is on the board keeping an eye on mgmt). -
What happened to this board?
CorpRaider replied to watsa_is_a_randian_hero's topic in General Discussion
I believe a bear market will probably help alleviate some of the "issues" posters in this thread have. 1) If valuations are more on the cheap side of fair, if you will, some of the posters who have gone "radio silent" will likely become enthused about the markets and/or particular ideas and will engage in discussions; 2) many of the warren-come-lately posters who are finding it hard, and perhaps selfish, to withhold their vast wisdom on investing and indeed all things, given their stunning brilliance as evidenced by their superb investing performance over the past five years, will likely quiet down and/or give up investing and posting on this board altogether after getting decimated by the next bear market. Stability breeds instability? Bull markets breed bull-shite? (present company excepted, of course...haha) Alternatively, it could all be my fault. I joined in early 2013, after lurking for some months. -
As close as it gets in this world!!!
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Agree, also a bunch of guys are probably writing a lot of junk over the last year or three.
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Wow. Who is he cloning on the FCAU and ZINC positions?
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Throw in Buffett (Munger), Icahn and Greenblatt as other famous investors who find little no value in having a view of the market's direction (at least that is what they say; Buffett and Icahn seem to flirt with a little timing). But its fun to discuss I suppose. Doesn't feel like 1999 to me. More like early 90's pre LTCM maybe 1994 (?) or a more pedestrian moderately richly valued market. Maybe like the time right before the junk bonds imploded and Michael Milken went down. I was just a kid then so I don't remember a lot of detail, just general impressions. Now, I'm not investing in Uber or high yield bond etfs.
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I'm sure most of you have already watched the new $WSW show/revival, but I didn't see a thread calling it out to people's attention. So here's a link to the site where you can watch streamed episodes: http://www.wallstreetweek.com
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It was interesting to see the percentage reductions in the positions and the compare to the weighting in the overall (reported) portfolio. BAC seems to have stayed at about 25%. Looks like maybe he's moving to cash; the 03/31 factsheet says he has about 18% of the 5.75 billion in the fund in cash.