John Hjorth
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Posts posted by John Hjorth
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ni-co,
Thank you for a very good post here. Actually, I think investing in European banks nowadays could deserve it's own separate topic in the General Discussion forum, so I suggest that you repost your last post above as a starting post in a separate topic.
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Just sell everything guys and go full short. I know you want to do it.
Please don't slap me while I'll continue - week by week - going forward, in small drips, one by one - to buy what I consider quality stuff, in the aim of getting [still] a lot of cash to work.
I knew there was someone raising prices on the stuff I wanted to buy.
Jurgis,
I'm not even trying to be arrogant, [trying to out]smart [you], nor even trying to be patronizing here: Quite a few of your posts on here lately does not make much sense [at last to me], ref. your plan to start indexing.
If you suffer from burnout [ref. one of your own posts lately], personally I would take a break from this [investing][again: I'm not trying to patronize you here].
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Just sell everything guys and go full short. I know you want to do it.
Please don't slap me while I'll continue - week by week - going forward, in small drips, one by one - to buy what I consider quality stuff, in the aim of getting [still] a lot of cash to work.
Darth Wader is not my God.
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Added to Novo Nordisk A/S [NOVO.CPH] this morning [uS ADR: NVO]. It dropped about 5 percent on the disclosure of results for FY 2015.
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Ref. : "Hang in there" :
The [not so] poor Norwegian people getting less rich by every second right now : The algorithm at the website for Statens Pensionsfond Utland is very busy right now adjusting the total portfolio value downwards :
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Added today to a small position in Sampo Plc A [HAMAS.HE] [up approx. 30%, from 0.82% to 1.07%]
Would you mind sharing your rationale for buying Sampo (not that it is a large position for you)? From valuation perspective, trades at a premium to it's part even if you are quote generous on the values of IF and Mandatum. Unless they get same kind of rabbit out of their hat as they did with Danske Bank, I don't see the risk/reward as very good at these levels. So I'm curious as to what made you increase the position, if you don't mind sharing.
Ps. Just to correct a typo, ticker is SAMAS, not HAMAS :)
Thanks for the note about the ticker! - now fixed in the original post.
Yes, certainly not cheap at these levels, I just wanted to get a bit more of it, after buying a bit a few years ago, before the runup. I really regret not buying a lot more at that moment, and judged now was the time for it, after the minor drop.
Bjørn Wahlroos basicly hasen't done any material transactions for long now, I expect to get surprised - in a postive way - at some time in the future. He seems quite opportunistic to me, if one reads up about what he has done so far.
Sampo will eventually end up with +50% going to 100% ownership of Topdanmark A/S [TOP.CPH] - one way or another - because TOP is returning capital to shareholders only by share buybacks. [As a TOP shareholder also I'm quite desperate about that fact in the long run].
This is an ultra term position for the family. I can't right now imagine what would provoke a decision to sell. Most likely the position will end up at third generation alive right now at some time in the future.
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The PCP aquisition expected to close on January 29th 2016 :
www.berkshirehathaway.com/news/JAN2516.pdf .
The deal announced completed on January 29th 2016:
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Added today to a small position in Sampo Plc A [sAMAS.HE] [up approx. 30%, from 0.82% to 1.07%]
[Edit : Fixed ticker, ref. post by 60°North Investments]
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Entertaining [biased?] read from Bloomberg with the title : "Who owns the sun?" [buffett or Musk] - about NV Energy:
http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-solar-power-buffett-vs-musk/
The ending part made me chuckle:
...Collier had planned to retire from his job flying small cargo planes. But he doesn’t want to stop working until he has a better handle on his monthly bills from Buffett’s utility. “If it goes totally haywire, I’m going to look at batteries,” he says. “I’d love to just go off the grid totally, and tell them to f--- off.”Surely, good old Uncle Warren wouldn't abuse his position to keep rooftop solar from spreading? Don't you know he only invests in businesses with durable competitive advantages, so that just couldn't be what's happening.
Well, I guess that running a highly regulated business just means that lobbying is part of managing and running the business.
Mr. Buffett has several times in his shareholder letters written about a "social contract" with society in which the company operates.
BRK has so far commited about USD 25B to wind power and solar power.
Just take a look at the german energy companies E.ON and RWE to see what happens "when a social contract is not any longer needed". [it's about nuclear power in the first place [after the Japaneese TEPCO incident], and now also coal powered plants].
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Entertaining [biased?] read from Bloomberg with the title : "Who owns the sun?" [buffett or Musk] - about NV Energy:
http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-solar-power-buffett-vs-musk/
The ending part made me chuckle:
...Collier had planned to retire from his job flying small cargo planes. But he doesn’t want to stop working until he has a better handle on his monthly bills from Buffett’s utility. “If it goes totally haywire, I’m going to look at batteries,” he says. “I’d love to just go off the grid totally, and tell them to f--- off.” -
The PCP aquisition expected to close on January 29th 2016 :
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Also: Is Muscleman on your payroll, in case of defaults? [J/K]This thread is especially interesting to me since I own a position in DirectCash, an ATM operator.
I do some hard money lending. Most people pay me back in cash, some do post-dated cheques. A select few will to electronic transfers, but let's face it. If you're borrowing money from a guy rather than a bank, you're not very financially savvy. These people deal in cash. They barely have bank accounts.
Would be interested to hear more about your business, if you don't mind sharing. Where do you find clients etc?
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... To tell you the truth, there will be a solar coronal mass ejection hitting the Earth someday like it happened in 1859. This has the potential to destroy a lot of our electronic devices. It could be major and stop all electric utilities from functioning. The problem is that we don't know the timing and how it would impact us: small inconvenience or major, a week to fix or a collapse of society? ...
Cardboard
[J/K] I do not recall any of my electronic devices falling out at some time in 1859. Maybe I'm just fading mentally, or I'm in an early stage stage of Alzheimers - ref. my signature here on board... [/J/K] Do you mean 1959, or what?
Here we have a rule of never leaving home without some kind of cash pocket money in the wallet, what is considered an appropriate figure [and currency] depends on what's planned to happen.
Cardboard is entirely correct...
Look it up on the interweb...
I didn't want to bring this up (yet), as I didn't want to come across as an alarmist.
OK, got it, thanks :
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... To tell you the truth, there will be a solar coronal mass ejection hitting the Earth someday like it happened in 1859. This has the potential to destroy a lot of our electronic devices. It could be major and stop all electric utilities from functioning. The problem is that we don't know the timing and how it would impact us: small inconvenience or major, a week to fix or a collapse of society? ...
Cardboard
[J/K] I do not recall any of my electronic devices falling out at some time in 1859. Maybe I'm just fading mentally, or I'm in an early stage stage of Alzheimers - ref. my signature here on board... [/J/K] Do you mean 1959, or what?
Here we have a rule of never leaving home without some kind of cash pocket money in the wallet, what is considered an appropriate figure [and currency] depends on what's planned to happen.
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Added today to:
BRK.B
SAN
MKL
NOVO B.CPH [corresponding US ADR: NVO]
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I guess I should also clarify that the majority of my negative sentiment is targeted to American equities which are ridiculously pricey.
Yeah, right: http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/cheap-stocks/
And before you start to sing the "historically high margins" song again - I've heard it, no need, most of these companies don't have historically high margins. Also a lot of them already had declining sales last year, so no, not cycle top.
Have fun
Jurgis,
What do you consider as your investment universe, as a base of your post above?
Can you clarify your question? I invest in everything. :) Some preference to high ROE "Buffettology" stocks.
I was thinking if you had geografical preferences, perhaps based on currency considerations. Thanks for the elaboration.
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I guess I should also clarify that the majority of my negative sentiment is targeted to American equities which are ridiculously pricey.
Yeah, right: http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/cheap-stocks/
And before you start to sing the "historically high margins" song again - I've heard it, no need, most of these companies don't have historically high margins. Also a lot of them already had declining sales last year, so no, not cycle top.
Have fun
Jurgis,
What do you consider as your investment universe, as a base of your post above?
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... I guess I should also clarify that the majority of my negative sentiment is targeted to American equities which are ridiculously pricey. I've been in European, EM, and commodity related equities for the last year or so given the relative value there. I can definitely see the negative sentiment in Europe to some extent as Santander is down 50+% from its highs even as profits have improved. Leaves me scratching my head and I'm still adding to that. ...
Based on your elaboration I agree with you. Most of the money to invest in the coming months for my part is staying in Europe, with the exemptions of a few US stocks that I want to own or buy more of.
[With regard to SAN I also agree with you, but I'm not scratching my head, I just keep on buying. To me, this is the most misunderstood global [almost] bank. Perhaps I will post more about it in the separate SAN topic in the investment ideas forum.]
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frommi,
Thanks for sharing!
TwoCitiesCapital,
There is a different investor sentiment on this side of the pond. Perhaps it's currency related.
Conditions are worse in the southern part of Europe compared to the northern part of Europe. It seems to me that a lot af US investors don't have an eye for that.
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frommi,
Any european names among the 45 picks? I hope you will share with us, thanks in advance.
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+1 - I can't agree more.Adding my 2 cents: ...
... 3) Just a reminder: stocks got cheaper, not more expensive.
Why the **** are we even talking about going net short?
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FYI: In case you haven't already...
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/01/12/rbs-warns-sell-everything/
Please show me - just one - investor who has become rich by following the advice from RBS - including investing in RBS.
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Hi Gio,
What's the purpose of posting something like this? Gio is not even an active part in that particular discussion in this topic.He's just using the Giofranchi method. ...
John,
In previous years I have always reported the overall increase in BV of my companies, simply because that’s what I am interested about and that’s what I keep track of very easily. The return from my stock market investments alone is more difficult to calculate.
I was told the BV of my companies doesn’t make sense… Therefore, this year I have not posted any result.
Just in case you care, the BV of my companies is up +4% for 2015, while the return from my stock market investments alone are in the red probably high single digit.
Cheers,
Gio
I do! -Thanks for the explanation and info!
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What's the purpose of posting something like this? Gio is not even an active part in that particular discussion in this topic.He's just using the Giofranchi method. ...
RBS Warns: Sell Everything
in General Discussion
Posted
Thank you for the topic split, ni-co. I think it's important [- at least for me].