John Hjorth
-
Posts
5,129 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
14
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by John Hjorth
-
-
writser,
Every time you post I read your board signature carefully!
I moved about 3 per cent from cash to stocks with what I did yesterday. After not buying about anything within the last several months, while still adding every month to tax deferred acounts for the Lady of the House and I.
Mini thesises, without starting new separate topics, if they are not there already on CoBF [max. 10 lines per pick]:
SCHO.CPH [schouw & Co. A/S]
Covered here on CoBF. I consider it now about somewhat fully priced. Better getting something in stead of nothing on cash in tax deferred accounts. I may be wrong here going forward.
JDAN.CPH [Jeudan A/S]
A Danish real estate company, focused totally on Down Town Copenhagen. About 200 units right now. My family and I have held it for years, it has done well, however nothing flamboyant. It has grown a lot over time. If hell appears on earth again - like '08 - '09 - I suppose this company will pick up like stealing candy from kids, using leverage. If it gets worse than '08 - '09 going forward, I'll most likely just be diluted by tobacco money [Chr. Augustinus Fabrikker A/S] and hearing aid money [William Demant Invest A/S]. Both about 40% stake each. Unfortunately no English financials available - most likely only my fellow Scandinavian board members can read the financials. I'm looking at EBVAT/share relative to market price of the stock here.
TOP.CPH [Topdanmark A/S]
A well run Danish - mainly P/C - insurer, focused on the Danish insurance market. A compounder - no dividends for I do not know how many years, all yield to shareholders in buy backs [the BRK shareholders of this board know the drill!]. It has moved just about nowhere within the last year. Noticed in the market, that recently "Anonumous" is selling a lot, while Nordea is a hefty buyer - not so much in the last few days. Last week TOP flagged increase of treasury shares up above 10 per cent. Thinking Sampo Plc is is nowadays off loading stocks, to suck up other TOP shares from shareholders [please read : cheap] , who have lost their mood on this thing, while TOP buying heavily. Last flag from Sampo Plc was at 42 per cent after an open bid, Sampo does not have to flag again downwards before passing 33 per pent.
INVE A.STO [investor AB]
Swedish investment conglomerate doing well now over many years. Please take a look at this press release, and make up you own mind. [Jurgis, I haven't forgotten my promise to you]. I have posted about this company on this board before without starting a topic in the investment forum. I hate EQT, but I get for free.
LUND B.STO [L. E. Lundbergföretagen AB]
Silly price right now, yes - My fellow Swedish board members might be shaking their heads. If you study the RE part of the conglomerate [2 subs, one wholly owned], you find out it's the rock of Gibraltar. I expect this company over the coming years to buy more of Industrivärden AB, to gain factual control [<50 percent, >33 per cent], based on cash flow from operations.
INDU C.STO [industrivärden AB]
This company has a poor performance record for the last 10 years or so. What happened is actually, that it got caught in the 08' - 09' with the use of leverage - one foot on a banana shell, the other [almost - I'm exaggerating here], in the grave hole. Hint: If interested, please just read the chairman and CEO Letters in the 2016 financials. Mr. Lundberg - majority shareholder and CEO at L. E. Lundbergföretagen AB, has already made a lot of changes since he took the chairman position last year.
-
Thanks for your elaboration here, rb.
-
rb & wachtwoord,
I'm not sure I understand your posts. I read those as "I have an anti home bias". -Your replies will make it easier for me in replying to writser's post, thereby exposing how dumb I am.
-
Added yesterday to :
SCHO.CPH [schouw & Co. A/S]
JDAN.CPH [Jeudan A/S]
TOP.CPH [Topdanmark A/S]
INVE A.STO [investor AB]
LUND B.STO [L. E. Lundbergföretagen AB]
INDU C.STO [industrivärden AB]
All long term positions.
-
I experienced the same mentioned before in this topic. Thanks for getting it fixed, Sanjeev. I'm sorry for your loss of time on this mishap out of your control.
rb mentioned some posts lost in some topics, among others in the SCHO.CPH topic. For my part, i'll just repost as a "repair" post. No big deal.
-
... but I know I'm full of shit; ...
IMO, this really is the key ;)
Scott's shit smells better than mine. I personally love rubbing my nose in it
Off topic:
Somehow, it's good humor, Spekulatius! : - )
- Is that the reason why you chose to fled Germany [The lack of humor, I mean]? - Question asked based on personal experience with German business people!
-
Bloomberg has an article on the growing importance of the credit-card / miles portion of the major airlines' businesses -
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-31/airlines-make-more-money-selling-miles-than-seats
as an aside, I haven't paid cash for an airline ticket for myself or my family in several years. someone is paying, I guess it's the banks?
Wouldn't you say that that cost is borne by consumers on average?
Credit cards that earn miles or rewards have higher processing fees than plain credit cards. The increased cost is passed on as slightly higher prices for all consumers.
I agree, if you by all consumers mean the carrier passengers. There are cards out there with no fees at all and built in rewards.
-
clutch,
I'm by no mean sure, that I agree with you.
How do you define a market participant? To me, it seems like you are defining market participant as a long shareholder [directly, or indirectly, via a ETF or mutual fund], a short, or a buyer or seller of options.
To me, a market participant is an entity [physical person, company, fund - whatever] with actual orders in the market.
At least a part of the passive investors do not act in accordance with patterns described earlier in this topic by Uccmal et al. [<- no pun intended here!].
The proof of this statement is actually the behavior of quite some members of this board [Please see attached].
- - - o 0 o - - -
I [i write "I", on behalf of my family and my self] consider my self a passive investor, and when I'm not in the market with orders, I'm not a participant in the market - just an owner of some fractions of specific companies, bought at an earlier point in time.
My point here is also : How do you define "passive"? Let me just say, on this board it is relative.
I would say, that BRK is not a market participant with regard to KO, since the last of the original 200 M shares of KO [now 400 M shares] was bought a long time ago [at least, as far as we know by now, with regard to market participation].
-
You're all welcome to ignore me if you'd like, but the fact is that my topics are often hotbeds of activity. A topic about my own life of all things is 11 pages long.
Maybe someone should think about the applications of that.
The funny part here is, that you are already - for my part - on my ignore list. I'm just nosy about what you are posting, reading it all. The board technicaly alows me.
Widening your mental state of thinking using pot etc. is to me not the way move forward. Cardboard has posted about it earlier on this board, based on personal experiences related to persons close to cardboard earlier, and personally I agree with cardboard.
To me, most likely, you'll end up as a train wreck of a person - the same as investor - if you do not get a hold on your self with regard to this.
- - - o 0 o - - -
The first person to treat you as deserved is your self! : Never forget that!.
- Good luck, Scott.
-
... I don't mind coming clean about this because I already have, multiple times. Half of what I post online is chicken scratch that I don't really believe. I just have fun pretending I do, because some people take stupid shit way too seriously....
OK, Scott.
-
"The funniest thing in the world to me is that the tech bubble people were right, just ahead of their time."
No, they were not right! Thousands of these have disappeared, lost over 90% of their value, only a very few percentage have survived or delivered any return to their shareholders.
Even large ones that did survive including Cisco, Intel and Yahoo show a negative return since that time. Even mighty Microsoft is only up 11% since its peak over 17 years ago!
Sure there is Amazon which you are so proud of and is up 8.8 times over that period or a whopping 13.5% a year but, you should not make a general statement based on one company that by the way has never generated profits in any kind of way to justify its valuation vs a Google for example.
Bottom line is that you should not ignore valuation. When things get pricey or hard to value, history is not kind.
Cardboard
I think Cardboard is pretty spot on. I might add that using Amazon as an example is kinda cheating. The one company who's stock has done well over the period.
If you look back at what were the "FANG" stocks back then - AOL, Microsoft, Cisco, Yahoo, Amazon - and you bought them as a basket you would have had a pretty bad experience over the period. This is mainly because their future earnings have been greatly overestimated. Basically their valuations were too rich. Also, generally as a group their margins (the ones that had margins) shrunk and they got new competitors.
As a thought experiment let's also assume that everything would have gone according to the script. I'd say that then's Yahoo and Microsoft is basically represented today by Microsoft, Yahoo, Google, and Apple. If you combine their market caps and look at the return over the period it would still be pretty pedestrian.
To me,
It can be boiled down to investing long term in :
1. Companies with a material positive cash flow, that cash flow being sustainable - at least in the mid term,
2. Combined with the trust in management [both board and CEO], to allocate the accumulated excess cash intelligently.
It reads pretty simply and obvious.
In pratice, it is not. It does not matter if we are talking about FANG stocks, or perhaps something as boring as BRK, or perhaps - in my case - some even more boring [and - to most people on this board - unknown] Scandinavian conglomerates.
Long term, it's all about the same.
-
As I have posted before on this board, I ended up with regard to work situation and indebtness in dire straits just after the the 08' - 09' financial crisis. It took me years to get back to a comfortable indebtness level compared to income, based on what happened in '08 and '09. I was totally focused on paying down debt, so that it would never happen again, after being a bond investor in tax deferred accounts for about 15 years.
On 10th September 2012 I had paid down so much debt, that I took the plunge to buy a few shares, thereby shifting from totally liablities management focus, to combined asset and liabilities management. I bought a few shares of BRK.B at 86.64 - after having trouble for several months to find a place where to buy and put into account, whitout a prohibitive drag with regard to account fees and trading fees.
IRR pre tax on that particular buy now around 19.4 percent, measured in my own functional curency DKK. I have been averaging up "a bit" since then to about 29 times in number of shares on total level. No regrets so far. In short: It was a good start.
-
Mr. Musk on the move again: Elon Musk launches Neuralink, a venture to merge the human brain with AI .
The concept of burn out or running out of steam seems like a total stranger to Mr. Musk.
-
Hilarious Parsad! I must of missed the conservation of flakes law in my physics class!
Great advice John H. It is also a great competitive advantage to be responsive vs. people that flake out.
Flakes lose opportunities left, right and center and they don't even know it.
Just soo true.
I had a loop of two landlines and a headset to pick it all up while working. Beside of that two mobile phones connected in a loop. I have literally - without exagerating - picked up millions of turnover [in DKK] by just picking up the phone. The more unknown the number calling me, the more I was interested in the call.
My favorite time of the year for "fishing" was the summer vacation time, where nobody, just about everywhere else, replied to anything, despite client loo's being on fire. - Just soo easy to pick it up, just waiting for the calls.
When in interactionon with clients, be sharp and precise, never get carried away, and allways do you very best, and to the extent possible, be prepared. Take your qualifications if you are in doubt. Even the biggest bonehead can get away with it with commercial success, if circle of compentence is well known, doing the appropriate qualifications timely, subject to further in depth study.
-
Thank you for great inspiration here, especially to Luke and Viking.
Certainly something to think about for me with regard to my only - so far - grand child [as I have already mentioned, I put all our childs in one bunch, thereby treating them all - and their decendants, as if they were all biologically decendants of me].
-
... The slides show though that a lot of $ is spent on healthcare and aggregate results don't show up.
Time to think outside the box? ...
To me, the out of the box thinking has already started [Question 1 - Last part].
-
... Medical user fees have been used in many countries and the impact has been studied. (My understanding is that many Scandinavian countries use them)...
I'm just trying to shed some light on the Danish situation here, Cigarbutt, without the intent of nit picking your post here. Tiny Denmark is after all only a tiny bit of whole Scandinavia. I have no factual knowledge about the rest of Scandinavia.
Medical fees have been subject for political discussions here on and on within at least the last couple of decades without ending in introduction of such, but not within the last few years, because of good public finances.
If the through isen't empty, the horses aren't wrangling, ref. the post by Uccmal.
What is happening here is that the structure of the GP practices is changing fast from one doctor pratices to partnerships, and the young partners want to invest in their shops, among other things going digital. It gives basis for a much more smooth daily operation, if some patient does not meet in for consultation by appointment, just swicthing to a digital consultation in a digital queue system in stead.
-
Seth,
What you are actually doing, is the best investment possible for a parent: Giving your kids a certain edge early on. What you are actually building now, is a margin of safety about your own future quality of life - as a parent with adult children, your children not causing you worries later in life. There is nothing more disabling to quality of your own of life than being a parent to a young person in some kind of trouble.
Thank God, so far, my own biological dauther has spared me that experience.
I remember 25 years ago having ongoing discussions at home with the mother to my daughter about raising her as bilingual, Danish and English, me speaking in English to my daugther. I ended up overruled, giving up on it. I regretted that for many years, but no longer, because my daugther is now fluent in English.
What was that "English thing" really about?: I would make sure avoiding my daugther doing my own biggest bummer with regard to education. In high school as a math/physics student I had to choose between [[English or German] and [French or Russian]] with regard to languages. I chose German and French. I found out what a bummer I had made while starting out at University. All books were in English, except books about Danish lax law. "Serve your self and get grip on both the language and the stuff that you have learn - or pack your stuff and leave..." I remember my line of thinking was then.
But I have had it in my personal sphere despite that in recent years. The Lady of the House has two kids from an earlier mariage, where the father of the kids died young. They are now in their early 30's and now doing well, not being the case, when I met their mother. I took them under my wings as were they my own kids, and taught them a thing or two about basic personal finances. What has made that activity make sense for me afterwards is, that I can feel on both of them, that they today appreciate what I did for them then.
- - - o 0 o - - -
My daughter is now studying at a university in Sydney, Australia, on her fourth year for her M.Sc. in Economics, at the age of 25. After college she spent two "sabbath years" from studying, one year working and making money, a half year at University at Honolulu, and a few months travelling around in the US with a her best friend before starting at University.
I remember when she was in Honolulu, on her Facebook page a photo popped up with the text: "Next time we will do Australia!" The photo was of her, skydiving at large altitude over Honolulu, hanging in a tandem parachute... I thought she was joking then about Australia.
Some days I find my self getting worried: "What now if she falls in love with some strange talking Aussie out there and never comes back?" Then I mentally pushes those thoughts away from my mind, telling my self: "Stop beeing such an old selfish bugger - this is not about you - She is just doing exactly what you have always tried to teach her: Persuing her own dreams! ... At least Mr. Musk is not so far with his plans and projects, that she can go to Mars...."
- - - o 0 o - - -
Reminds about I that I have to order a copy of the Berskhire Hathaway Shareholder Letters avalable at Lulu.com to get it out to her!
-
To me, nothing has changed, ... except personal behavior - along the way.
More than 30 years ago, I was taught by my then boss & nestor about Danish "good business practice - the ground rules". As a Danish CPA, that implies, that you do always provide a reply - as soon as practiable possible:
1. If you get a telephone call without having the ability to pick it up, you get back, as soon as possible - by phone,
2. If you get a written letter from somebody, you provide a written response within reasonable response time, perhaps combined with a personal response by phone.
3. Rule # 2 applies to e-mail communication.
- - - o 0 o - - -
To me, not being in compliance with the above basic rules of communication all the time - to a satisfactory extent, you might end up "closing some doors behind you - for good" - and at some time in future, you'll recognize, that this is what actually happened in your past!
Danish CPAs have for many years got fined for ignoring incoming client communication, based on the above mentioned. It's much cheaper to just give the client the boot in the butt in the first place - to get rid of the hazzle with clients, that you consider dumb or dishonest - or both!
-
I can't help it ... - I really have to ask: What's the dress code for participants in such hearings/meetings? Bullet proof vest, helmet and bringing your arms? [J/K - lol]
Crazy stuff to read in this topic - thanks all for sharing.
- - - o 0 o - - -
Off topic:
Here we have a computer system in place to pick up all trading data for real estate deals all over the country, to get real estate valuations as fair as possible, over time.
I think it was about 2 - 3 years ago, it was recognized, that the code in the system was broken. Especially the calculated real estate valuations in the area north of Copenhagen - where the real estate is really expensive - was way off - too high. What next happened was, that the complaint system got flooded with complaints, and blew up totally - it's still down now.
Danish citizen don't take any BS from the Danish Government and Administration - especially not from the Danish IRS. [The name of the Danish IRS is "SKAT", which translate directly to both "HONEY" [and "TAX"], btw.]
- - - o 0 o - - -
The more I learn from reading this board, the more I get to appreciate my own living conditions here.
- - - o 0 o - - -
Now back to topic again.
-
To me, both Cigarbutt and Green King are right. Don't give up, DTEJD1997.
Here we have a term for the behavior mentioned by Green King : Cash thinking.
Also, I'm really surprised to read how things are going on at your place about administrative rulings. It really reads like "Klondike" to me.
Here, we have a separate law in place, that embraces all administrative rulings in the public sector, including administrative rulings about taxes: [In Danish: Forvaltningsloven - in English it would something like "The law about public administrative rulings" - without translating directly.
Don't you have such legislation in place in the US, to protect citizen from being run over by the system with access to almost unlimited ressources?
If your case was here, I would just do one swing at the ball to get it on the other side of the net by sending a one line complaint letter to the state level stating that the administrative tax assessment is invalid because of lack of reason, ref. paragraph 22 in the law.
-
petec,
It's only based on rough and primitive P/B considerations. Please consider me a FFH amateur.
I have tried several times to do IV calculations for FFH. I can't. Despite being a mini - compared to i.e. BRK -, FFH is now a so complicated structure, and the complexity is increasing year by year.
Position size for me and my family is closer to 4 per cent than 3 right now. [based on accordingly degree of conviction, where I'm about 25 per cent in BRK, and sleeping well at night with that].
-
I took the time today to read the full FFH 2016 Annual Shareholder Letter by Mr. Watsa and the 2016 financials.
For me and my family, this is a position nearer 4 per cent than 3 per cent right now. Return so far after holding it for almost four years, adding bits along the way, is a negative zero ex dividends.
I feel the market price of FFH.TO right now is rich, bordering to silly.
However, I feel it right now would be about the worst thinkable time to jump off the wagon. The equity hedges are now gone, the prospects of the international insurance business - especially in Asia and Africa - seem to have a an enormous potential going forward for the long run. Add to that the AW merger/aquistion.
It will be a totally different company going forward the next few years. I'm willing to buy more, if the share takes a material plunge going forward.
Like posted earlier by many other fellow board members I would also like to see a change in the investment style by HW.
- - - o 0 o - - -
I saw Sanjeev mentioned in the Shareholder Letter by Mr. Watsa. Yes, Sanjeev, you are a truly outstanding human being. Good luck with all your endavours in making life better for other than your self, and may your God be with you in those endavours.
-
You didn't address the biggest question on my mind. How much capital did these guys start with. 30% in 10yrs is 14x. So ...... starting with just $200k is going to be $3M. It can tell us a lot about their mentality towards concentration.......
Is "just $200k" typical for investors here to start with? I started as soon as I had my first 10k saved.
Paarslaars,
Perhaps you are mixing up the starting point in time for reference period for performance measurement in the relevant topic with "point in time when started up investing" here, ref. how randomep phrased his post. Those two separate points in time are most likely not identical.
What are you buying today?
in General Discussion
Posted
Also thank you to you, wachtwoord, for reply here.
The same here. I have spent 100s of hours during the last few years looking at Danish small caps with either a lot of issues [owner/operator behaving as he's owning the whole thing, or just running the damn thing for his own giggles], or at totally ridiculous prices. I call it kissing frogs.
The same apply to many constituents of the primary Danish Stock Index [OMXC20CAP] with regard to my judgement of relationship between price and quality. Better to go somewhere else with the capital.
PS: Time for me to get back to Wilhelmsen!