John Hjorth
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Posts posted by John Hjorth
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... FWIW and I know this will not be popular to say, I think the US market in particular is now grossly over valued. You only need to look at large cap American stocks and their European counter-parts to see the extreme divergence. For example, take a look at Nestle and Kraft Heinz. We all know the story here, two huge companies in similar established industries with limited growth prospects. The divergence in valuation makes no sense to me and that is why I am nearly 50% cash.
Yes, it is actually striking. P/E ~26 for NSRGY, P/E ~38 for KHC. [Not sure I have got it right with KHC though].
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Uccmal,
Time for a separate topic about Mother-in-law-investing, Sister-in-law-investing etc. in the general discussion forum? - This could be interesting.
Nah, you don't need a thread. It's a very simple. Do not invest money for your mother-in-law! More gray with the sister-in-law but maybe best to stay away from that as well.
rb,
Hah! - Then you'll get the honor to open the new topic, in stead of Uccmal? [For my part, I can assure you, it will be a bit entertaining].
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... When you get right down to it, there isn't much that isn't already listed by others. ...
... Difficult.
Uccmal,
Time for a separate topic about Mother-in-law-investing, Sister-in-law-investing etc. in the general discussion forum? - This could be interesting.
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... At the present, U.S. rates have sky-rocketed in the last two months and have/will result in a stronger dollar as long as this spread continued. A stronger dollar likely means a continuation of the longest earnings recessions on the book - at some point, people are going to wonder how stocks have gone up, from already lofty levels, if earnings have been contracting for 2-3 years now...
TwoCitiesCapital,
I'm not sure how to correctly understand the qouted part of your last post in this topic.
As always, your input is highly appreciated for my part.
Is this comment from you about an expectation of earnings are supposed to decline for US multinational companies - measured in USD, - that is, because of the USD going up relatively to other currencies?
Yes. Corporate earnings in the U.S. have already been in their longest, unbroken downtrend in history...but no one has been concerned because it's been a pretty shallow earnings recession.
I expect that a strengthening dollar, and higher rates, will BOTH contribute to a continuous reduction in corporate profitability. Foreign revenues will be worth less, we'll export less, and rates will cut into profits as companies roll into higher coupon debt.
Eventually, a bunch of shallow reductions in corporate profits aggregate to a meaningful reduction. I would have thought we were already there, but I guess not. That being said, the trend of a stronger U.S. dollar doesn't look to end anytime soon - at least not while U.S. rates offer such an attractive spread to any other developed countries'.
The only thing I'm concerned about is the actuality of meaningful corporate tax reform which has the potential to have a large impact on bottom line earnings, which is why I initially covered my shorts when Trump was elected. (Glad I did!)
That being said, I don't think corporate tax reform is a given, even with a Republican Congress, and so I'm growing more comfortable shorting again based on my view that U.S. equities are grossly overvalued relative to historical norms and other opportunities present.
Thank you for your reply here, TwoCitiesCapital,
At least to me, it makes sense. In the portfolios that I manage for family members and myself, BRK was grown within a relative short time span from beeing a ~20% position to beeing a ~25% position. For me, that's not only about BRK has run up quite a bit lately, but also about BRK beeing a company - still - primarily doing business in the US, and the USD/EUR exchange rate has surged quite a bit lately.
My functional currency - also related to investment performance - is DKK, closely related to EUR [+/-2.25%].
I have posted questions about the definition of "your investment universe" in another topic on this board lately to my fellow board members. I think I really need to do some kind of work on this going forward - in the beginning of 2017, to get some kind of overview - for my part.
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... At the present, U.S. rates have sky-rocketed in the last two months and have/will result in a stronger dollar as long as this spread continued. A stronger dollar likely means a continuation of the longest earnings recessions on the book - at some point, people are going to wonder how stocks have gone up, from already lofty levels, if earnings have been contracting for 2-3 years now...
TwoCitiesCapital,
I'm not sure how to correctly understand the qouted part of your last post in this topic.
As always, your input is highly appreciated for my part.
Is this comment from you about an expectation of earnings are supposed to decline for US multinational companies - measured in USD, - that is, because of the USD going up relatively to other currencies?
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Honestly, - about time!
Since the beginning of 2014: 2014: Up some, 2015: Down some, 2016: Up some [so far].
Since the beginning of 2014:
Net cash flow from operations: USD 88.672 B
Cash flow from investing activities [negative]: USD 70.289 B,
Both, a lot! ... so, about time.
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It seems that there have been some kind of leak at the top level at ECB Friday.
MPS Press Release of yesterday 18:45 CET.
It's turning into a parody.
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tengen,
Italy's banking crisis is nearly upon us.
I've got an idea for some rough calculations based on content in the article above, and I will post them in this topic when done. As already mentioned, the calculations will be rough, and without any kind of validation of data/basis for all numbers of importance for the calculations.
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Also:
The Economist : The Italian Job
BBC: Italy bank rescue marred by suicide and lost savings [old background information, from December 2015].
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On a more personal note, this suicide thing makes me baffled. I mean: How can the loss of money trigger you to decide to end your own life, by hanging yourself? How is Italy treating their retired part of the population, that has done their part for moving for the country forward [lately - without much success]?
Perhaps this person was already suffering from the loss of the spouse, -I don't know.
[note to self/to do]Adding Italian banking related suicide to the endless and ever expanding list of things that John do not understand[/note to self/to do].
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I really like the humor here - to me, it is like Danish humor! - Please remember the humor also when everything is tanking! [, which it eventually will - at some time in the future - perhaps already on monday.]
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To me, the third lagerest bank of Italay, is now already dead: Please read [https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/09/crisis-hit-monte-dei-paschi-bank-refused-ecb-help]Here.
That's been true for a while. The really important question is how exactly is it going to die.
rb, thank you for quoting my post even before my own editing.
I just suppose a lot of staff is working overtime right now - and during the weekend. "No sweat" comes to mind as when you arrive at home monday morning, after tripple all-nigtherts, and your spouse is happy to see you, despite your "odor".
This is bad - really bad.
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This Italian banking nightmare might in worst case end getting out of hand:
Banki Monte dei Paschi asks ECB to extend EUR 5 billion resque plan deadline.
It was all over the place in the Danish TV news today.
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It seems like my mental overdrive mode yesterday has created something like the December version of "Which Presidential Candidate will you..."!
DooDiligence, please do not let it get under your skin. The people around here are actually very nice in general.
Liberty is right - it's not just "two airplanes".
I certainly concur with valcont, cardboard and Jurgis also.
I have seen things from inside with regard to public/military spending in the whole 2014 and most of 2015 under an assignment I was on in that period. The Arctic Patrol Ships ordered by the Canadian Navy and beeing built right now in Canada are actually designed here in Odense, Denmark. Let me just say I was baffled about how things were done, without going too much into specifics. -To provide some further modest comfort to my fellow Canadian board members footing the bill on this I will just add that I was paid dearly! [-to work hard, very hard].
rb, with regard to the rally lately, I'm not amused - like you. Actually, I'm getting poorer by it. In tax deferred accounts here in Denmark, you have to pay a 15.3 percent tax based on marked to market valuations on both realised and unrealiseds gains. To give you the opportunity to get even with me about the above I'll mention that the tax is called a PAL-tax [PAL beeing the abbreviation for the Danish words for "Pension Return Law"].There is carry forward on the calculation basis for the tax. So I want the stocks I buy in such account to just "stay there" with regard to price, and to fall with dividends received - and to pop the day before I want to sell. By the way, it is the only Danish tax, for which you don't get a specification from the Danish IRS. Your broker/bank does the calculation, and pulls the tax from the account and delivers it to the Danish IRS in the middle of each January. If the cash is not there, you're "margin called" for the tax.
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500 k to 290 Billion. Not at all bad, given two world wars, depressions, etc about 14%. Do you know what the inflation adjusted original stake was worth? The dollar has gone down by a factor of 22 or so, i.e. a dollar in 1916 bought the equivalent of $22 today, at least in potato chips not microchips.
netnet,
Thanks, I will try to open a topic in the investment ideas forum within a few weeks about Investor AB. I'll do my very best to do the opening post - consider me as reference - well thought out.
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Trump wants to cancel Air Force One order from Boing.
Oh well. Somehow, I like the idea of the guy talking about material corporation tax cuts taking the lead and beeing a frontrunner in reducing [not needed?] US public spending.
[j/k] Perhaps he should consider taking the SR-71 out of the moth ball for his personal transportation, and his staff could travel before him using Norwegian, Ryan Air, EasyJet or whatever. .. -At least the SR-71 seems to fit his temper much better than a dull 747. [/j/k].
[Yes, I am a bit bored today - please don't get me started about the Royal Danish family!]
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Scott,
Yes.
My intention with my post referring to the Bloomberg acticle was just to back my first post about deferred taxes - just showing that others look at this the same way as I. My first post was actually meant to be only about what would happen to deferred taxes already built up and provided, which was not clear based on how my first post was phrased. So I have edited my first post.
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An article about the effect on the BRK financials of the expected US tax cut:
Berkshire Boost From Trump Tax Plan Seen as High as 29 Billion.
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The popularity of Mrs. Merkel has got some dents lately, related to the European migration crisis.
Edit: No worries, rb.
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From an accounting and reporting perspective, provisions for taxes already deferred in the US will be adjusted downwards, the adjustments eventually ending up in book equity.
Edit: Added the word "already".
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Irish Times: Senior euro zone figures call for calm after Italian vote.
Translates for me to : "Crisis? - What crisis? -It's just a "permanent situation - Italian style"".
-To solve a problem one must first acknowledge its existence.
Oh well.
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Not sure, sailor of this board,
So far, I haven't read any info implying they are hole brother inlaws. - By the way, I think I really need to go bed now before this is escalading into something I don't know what!
I mean: Does it matter? Are Italian banks cheap right now or not? [For me so far: Not!].
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Thanks Uccmal, and as already posted by indirect:
Good night, and sleep well - what ever your time zone may be.
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The voting procedure is running right now in Italy. I'll stay up and look at TV about it till the bitter end at about 03 AM this night, my local time. I still have no clue what this will bring for tomorrows markets [,perhaps some cheap SAN ADRs in the afternoon]. We'll see.
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You are welcome, TBW.
I really hope you get the book as a Christmas gift from your wife, and that you enjoy reading the book like I have.
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Full title: Investor 100 years - "To move from the old to what is about to come is the only tradition worth keeping."
I bought the books [both the Swedish version and the English version] in the beginning of October 2016, and I have just finished reading the English version.
The book is about the first 100 years of the history the Swedish investment company Investor AB - the central and core company in "the Wallenberg sphere", today actually in control of quite a large part of Swedish international business, and quite a large part of the companies listed on the Swedish stock exchange Nasdaq OMX Stockholm.
Ticker: INVE A [sTO] & INVE B [sTO].
The book was written by the Swedish journalist Ronald Fagerfjäll. To me, it's very well written. I have the feeling after reading the book [i have only read the English version so far], that the author is a quite skilled investor himself.
It's the story about how about aproximately SEK 500 thousand has been turned into about SEK 290 billion during the work of 6 generations of the Wallenberg family within 100 years, in a historic Swedish business context.
I have learned a lot about the Wallenbergs and how they work by reading it, and it has been a really interesting, entertaining and educational read, all at the same time, with everything put in a historic perspective with regard to Swedish business.
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Scandinavian investors outside Denmark can get the books at a 46% discount [price: SEK 179.00 each] here.
As a Danish investor, I found the books cheapest including postage and VAT at CDON.COM.
The English version of the book is available on Amazon UK at GBP 29.00 here.
I haven't been able to find the Swedish version of the book available outside www.adlibris.com and CDON.COM.
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Disclosure: INVE A [sTO] ~3% position. I will perhaps buy more in 2017.
What are you buying today?
in General Discussion
Posted
A bit more SCHO.CPH.