wachtwoord

I don't think Kelly applies as this requires bets to be independent. Every two investments in the world are likely correlated and most are correlated quite strongly. Further, it's really hard to estimate an accurate win/lose chance for an investment. If using this system makes you feel safer I guess it's okay but it's all a bit arbitrary to me.

EXC @ 28.16

Kyle: I don’t think that they’ll be able to raise the Fed funds rate any time in the foreseeable future—3 to 5 years. Jim: So, that would argue that stocks would be a better play. Kyle: Unfortunately…because it feels like they’re making it the only game in town. It’s not your choice, but it’s the only answer though. http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/kyle-bass/fed-raise-interest-rates-3-5-years-stocks-only-game-in-town Well fiat just doesn't preserve purchasing power. It should be used for short term liquidity only. Not that there are many options for preserving purchasing power but Gold, Silver and Bitcoin come to mind.

Very good reason to keep refreshing this board :)

Could be both, couldn't it? ;D This time I'm not even going to respond to any future guesses at all. You guys are seriously too good at this, and any clues I give, somehow you will figure it out. I've learned my lesson once now already. Cheers! I really hate it when I cannot solve a puzzle and the answers aren't in the back for me to cheat ;)

Depending on how you measure 6-16% And I think I have way too much cash and are being overly conservative. Fiat currencies are very bad investments as you are guaranteed to lose a couple of percent of purchasing power a year.

Wow, indeed. You say you didn't have cash in the margin account, but didn't you have holdings there as well? Otherwise I don't understand why you couldn't pay the fee on margin. Also: why liquidate so much? Would''t a single share be more than sufficient? Apparently they will not pay fees from margin, and yes I asked the same question about one share. Apparently they only liquidate full lots. Well thanks for the info at least. Now I can try to prevent this ever happening to me.

Wow, indeed. You say you didn't have cash in the margin account, but didn't you have holdings there as well? Otherwise I don't understand why you couldn't pay the fee on margin. Also: why liquidate so much? Would''t a single share be more than sufficient?

Yes, but the yield enhancement program is supposed to share the profits 50/50.

Meh housework ;)

Me too, thank you Mike. I really don't care whether the story is accurate. The best stories usually aren't.

If that's what you think...so be it. Cheers! Not really, but most seem to believe it's Glacier Media http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GVC.TO%2C+&ql=0

I read the book, a long time ago. I enjoyed it. The story I most remember is when they first started Oracle they had a computer in one room and something like terminals in a room next to it. Ellison came in and everyone was sitting around because the wires from the terminals to the computer were too short to run out one door and in the other. Ellison left, came back a few minutes later with a hammer, pounded a hole through the wall between the two rooms, and then said "run your wires through there." Oh and the one where he was getting divorced in the early days of Oracle and his wife, soon to be ex, took the pickup truck instead of any Oracle stock. Never heard of this guy but I already love him :P

The most famous (not biggest) Ponzi scheme in Eve online is by "Curin Trading". The person running the scheme actually posted a full confession and explanation how he did it afterwards which is an amazing read: http://web.archive.org/web/20091026234156/http://geocities.com/currintrading/ epilogue: http://web.archive.org/web/20091021193732/http://geocities.com/currintrading/bank.html

Would be kinda cool to just buy one BRK-A share. When people ask have you spread your investments you can say: Yes I own one BRK-A share and nothing else :D

On first viewing Red Hat really doesn't look cheap. I disagree. A 5% FCF Yield + historical growth rate of 15-20% gives me a pretty high expected return of 20-25%. Even if growth is cut in more than half to 7%, it gives an expected return of 12%, which is still good. Okay you're expecting continued growth in such high percentages. I usually don't do that . Thanks for the feedback though :)

I bought RIMM at $46 and $26 and am still holding. They're worth more than $8 but a lot less than my average buy price. I overestimated the moat and was drooling too much over the metrics (ROE, ROA, net cash, no debt, FCF yield). When revenues decline so extremely that offers no protection ...

On first viewing Red Hat really doesn't look cheap.

Thank you! You are our tax expert here! Do you feel like the reviews here would be some concern? http://www.yelp.com/biz/interactive-brokers-llc-greenwich regarding the reviews. This makes no sense to me "IB force liquidated my positions and created a loss in my account that would have been greater than if all my trades had gone wrong. ". He goes on to say that he had enough liquidity, and then makes the point that these were European style options and couldn't be exercised prior to expiry. Something tells me that IB cares more than just whether or not you need any liquidity before they expire -- perhaps the direction they trade in the interim makes IB nervous about having enough liquidity when they expire. Impossible to know without the whole story. But do you believe him when he says that they created a loss greater than if all his trades had gone wrong? All of them? That sounds nonsensical. Thank you Eric. I am talking to Fidelity right now. If they can't get me a good stock lending rate, I think at least I would open a cash account in IB and transfer my SHLD shares there. If I get comfortable with a margin account, I will apply for margin, but I am a pretty conservative guy and I would like not to actually borrow any money. Then there shouldn't be any issues for owning a margin account for you then. Danger is for people that actually intend to use the margin. I'm really conservative too and won't buy on margin.

You can OPT OUT of this by going to "Manage Account" --> "Security" Don't disable two factor authorization! Seriously, you're dealing with a lot of money ... You need a minimum amount of value in your account for one of the two electronic alternatives and I'm too poor for that :)

1. Yes, I have experienced this. Tax rate was indeed 15%. 2. I have no idea what turbo tax is. I am European :) Are you using a cash account? Are you allowed to buy a stock immediately after selling a stock, or do you have to wait until the cash settlement? I have a margin account so I don't have to wait for the 3 days it takes for a trade to settle.

1. Yes, I have experienced this. Tax rate was indeed 15%. 2. I have no idea what turbo tax is. I am European :)

Yes, you give them permission to lend out all your stocks (I investigated this in detail before I started using it). However: 1) You will receive cash collateral in your account to protect against non-delivery, this collateral will be updated every night based on the market rates. So the collateral can be off one day of trading max. It is highly unlikely for non-delivery ever to occur though. 2) They try not to lend out dividend stocks on a ex-dividend day. However, if they do lend it out, you will receive payment "in lieu of dividend" and this amount is taxed the same amount as the dividend tax rate (15% for US stocks). I have had this happen to me and the information was accurate. If you have more questions, please ask.

Not giving a shit has helped me. It sometimes works against you as well however. As in anything a balance is important. And everyone is in constant search of equilibrium :) Wow this thread turned philosophical

Oh and btw, this cannot be left out of this topic of course: "The only way not to lose is not to play." - War Games