LongHaul

DHS testing presentation leak with a few summary findings (Note this is from April but I thought it was interesting.) https://www.scribd.com/document/456897616/DHSST#download&from_embed [*] Virus is most stable in cool/dry conditions. [*]Virus decays/inactivates faster in warmer and more humid environments. Aerosol Stability - Virus is very stable in No Solar conditions. Opening windows may help reduce indoor exposure. Sunlight rapidly inactivates Virus Half Life: Full Intensity: 2 Min, Half: 3 Min, Quarter: 4 Min

3. Disliking/Hating Tendency In a pattern obverse to Liking/Loving Tendency, the newly arrived human is also “born to dislike and hate” as triggered by normal and abnormal triggering forces in its life… Disliking/Hating Tendency also acts as a conditioning device that makes the disliker/hater tend to: ignore virtues in the object of dislike, dislike people, products, and actions merely associated with the object of his dislike, and distort other facts to facilitate hatred. Distortion of that kind is often so extreme that miscognition is shockingly large. It’s the opposite of the liking/loving tendency but with similar outcomes. For example, rather than ignoring bad news, only the good news is overlooked. The tendency to like/dislike drive people to pick sides, create (political) divides, never change their mind, and make it impossible for anyone to agree on anything so that it’s antithetical to progress. ============================================================================================= I have definitely been guilty of this and I didn't think straight about the good aspects of what I strongly diskliked. All one has to do is look at the times and see all the hatred and strong dislike out there. It is really terrible as there are almost always constructive solutions if one can see past the emotional anchor of hatred. Would the antidote be Love for your fellow man? Love the sinner, hate the sin? I don't know. Probably the 1st step would be recognizing what you hate/strongly dislike and admitting that is a piece of the overall picture.

While I would agree that having a framework for making good capital allocation decisions is somewhat intuitive or even obvious, getting organizations to consistently operate in this way is much harder than it looks in my experience. At a decent size manufacturing company, I was involved in the capital planning process for 2020 and the projects people proposed were often not very imaginative or did not move the ball. A project like investing in automation that would allow multiple smaller lines to remove at least a few people from the lines who were doing very manual labor was viewed with some disdain. This is in a relatively commoditized industry where cost determines 80% of success and technology/marketing/relationships is the remainder. Getting everyone to understand the importance of reducing inventories and not yelling at the buyer if, during the transition, things don't go smoothly, is hard. Getting people to understand the trade-offs of such decisions and having thoughtful conversations about why trying to optimize inventories opens up capital for us to grow faster is challenging. Talking with people on the floor about scrap and the cost of the raw material they're throwing away is another example. You would be shocked how many people don't have a basic understanding of the trade offs involved in their jobs. Most people in lower level jobs operate in some state of fear about some past event that scarred everyone. "Oh, well we could keep less inventory of that raw material but we keep 3x as much because we don't want to run out because one time that happened and I got my head ripped off." Even at the Board of Directors level, I doubt how many people really get it. They constantly pay each other more every year, they reprice options lower for executives who have failed miserably, they sign off on acquisitions at prices that would be hard to justify and often don't create value, and the list could go on and on. Just curious - how was the CEO and his tone from the top? I have heard from an activist that companies now have training in how to do PR to value investors to sell their stock.

Thanks for sharing. I should of added "General Discussion" to the list of topics to discuss regarding Psychology.

Munger's actual talk in his own words- worth a listen (or 5) if you have not heard it before

If you have lived a decent amount of time you have probably seen yourself or others love or really like some bad people as the ignore their major faults. It almost always ends badly. If you are a single guy or gal reading this be careful with this bias, as you may rationalize away important defects in a marriage partner.

2. Liking/Loving Tendency …A newly arrived human is “born to like and love” under the normal and abnormal triggering outcomes for its kind… And what will a man naturally come to like and love, apart from his parent, spouse, and child? Well, he will like and love being liked and loved. And so many a courtship competition will be won by a person displaying exceptional devotion, and man will generally strive, lifelong, for the affection and approval of many people not related to them… One very practical consequence of Liking/Loving Tendency is that it acts as a conditioning device that makes the liker or lover tend: to ignore faults of, and comply with wishes of, the object of his affection, to favor people, products, and actions merely associated with the object of his affection (as we shall see when we get to “Influence-from Mere-Association Tendency”), and to distort other facts to facilitate love. Of course, this can be taken to the point that we ignore all faults of people, things, ideas, and beliefs we admire. Anything bad is pushed aside, ignored, or distorted.

There are costs to figuring out if something is a good value and necessary. Depends on situation if worth it. But either way one is going to pay because if you are unwilling to do the work then more likely to get taken. One trick is to just ask questions and get different opinions. Mechanics will often give different opinions than service advisors. Different Doctors may have different views, etc. I actually enjoy sniffing out BS and learning. Also - once you find a trusted service person - stick with them like glue. Ben Franklin had an ingenious method for making a decision in a more rational manner. I think it was taking a piece of paper, folding it in half and then writing the pros and cons of the decision and putting a numerical value next to it over a few days. Then he could weigh each side and make a decision.

Incentives are definitely a very powerful bias. Examples that I have come across: 1. Dentist trying to drill out my teeth by claiming I have 8 cavities when perhaps I had 1 small one. Find a dentist that you can trust. 2. Car Dealer Service agents AND mechanics getting commissions or by the job. Ends up recommending all types of fraudulent shit that you totally don't need. I specifically told the last service agent "I know the game - don't recommend anything I don't need, I work on my car and know it well". The service agent say ok - I respect that. They do a simple oil change and end up recommending all this unnecessary work still. Crazy how powerful the incentives are that he still couldn't not help himself. The entire dealership is a psychology lab to manipulate you btw. 3. I have heard that insurance salesmen sell the complex ripoff insurance (vs what is best for the customer) solely because of the big commissions. Possible Antidotes: Know the incentives of how people who are giving you advice are paid. Know enough about your subject that you can call BS on them. I ended up doing a ton or research of dentistry and another time a dentist said my son had a cavity and I asked if it was down the the dentin - and she immediately said no and backpedaled on her recommendation. There have been many times though where I did not understand how people were paid and paid the price.

Awesome. I will start posting. I think if we do 1 at a time and discuss and digest it will be more meaningful for long term understanding and connections and fluency. I think real life examples and stories are fantastic for learning. Mungers: The Psychology of Human Misjudgment - Charlie Munger Full Speech 1. Reward and Punishment Superresponse Tendency …almost everyone thinks he fully recognizes how important incentives and disincentives are in changing cognition and behavior. But this is not often so. For instance, I think I’ve been in the top five percent of my age cohort almost all my adult life in understanding the power of incentives, and yet I’ve always underestimated that power. Never a year passes but I get some surprise that pushes a little further my appreciation of incentive superpower… Rewards are a great motivator. Rewards also produce bad behavior or what Munger calls “incentives caused bias.” One of the most important consequences of incentive superpower is what I call “incentive caused bias.” A man has an acculturated nature making him a pretty decent fellow, and yet, driven both consciously by incentives, he drifts into immoral behavior in order to get what he wants, a result he facilitates by rationalizing his bad behavior, like the salesmen at Xerox who harmed customers in order to maximize their sales commissions. If the reward involves keeping a job or higher pay, it’s likely someone will game the system, especially when the consequences seem minimal. For instance, the recent Wells Fargo scandal where employees were pushed to meet account quotas, and with no checks on the system, Wells Fargo was soon awash in fake accounts. The scandal was compounded by the bias of social proof — it must be okay if every other employee is doing it too. Commission-based advice is another potential conflict zone. A few months of insurance sales was enough to know at least a few agents would only push the higher commission policies whether it was best for the client or not. It’s not a stretch to think the same happens with most commission-based financial products. The solution in the case of incentivized “advice” is to be skeptical and double check anything you’re told. Never, ever, think about something else when you should be thinking about the power of incentives. The worst incentives tend to be short-term good, long-term bad.

I was reading about Munger and how he said that fluency in important areas is critical. I think I could improve my understanding of psychological biases as they are really powerful on the human mind. It is actually really humbling to think of all the mistakes I have made from the biases. What if I post 1 psychological bias every 2-7 days and then we can discuss it. I will post from Munger's list and we can primarily do discuss 2 things: 1. Examples from real life. 2. Antidotes for a particular bias. I think it would be a great review and learning exercise for everyone involved. Let me know if you are interested in participating and if there is enough interest I'll start posting. Bias list. https://novelinvestor.com/charlie-mungers-tendencies-of-human-misjudgment/ Edited for spelling, etc.

Liberty - any thoughts on the risk of getting infected outside if you are at least 15 feet away? I did hear of a cases in Japan where kids were wearing N95 masks and exercising hard and got hypoxia (low oxygen) and ended up dead. I think wearing a mask inside is a signal of virtue.

And if one is really worried about engine failure some of the big culprits are: 1. Low Oil. 2 Low Coolant with the resulting overheating that destroys the engine. So check your fluids.

Interesting experiment. I must admit the free equation has changed a bit. Although ~2 months ago I did pick up a big free piece of insulation sitting in sun. Left it out for 2 weeks. Man did I get shit from the wife!

Wabuffo - Thanks for the posts. You seem to really understand how the Fed works. How do you think this plays out with the Fed over time with secondary consequences? I don't understand squat with this stuff. How did you learn this stuff and could you recommend some books or articles on this? Thank You

Oil Changes - Mileage or Time? Blackstone Lab says Mileage is what matters Blackstone Laboratories Podcast - 5/25/2020 3:45 to ~9 minute mark most relevant for cars Notes Oil Change best to be done on mileage basis NOT by calendar Calendar time alone does not cause oil to breakdown in the crankcase of engine - (unless open breather) - recent engines are sealed Transmission oil also does not deteriorate with time in the tranny, focus on the miles. Transmission oil breaks down as it is used

Wish you the best with your new job and opportunities.

Read whole thing... That was a hellava article. Thanks.

You are entitled to your freedom. You are not entitled to infringe on the freedom of others. Driving a car is a privilege, not a right. A shop owner should be allowed to stay open. The individual will decide whether or not to enter. This isn't difficult. I would make the analogy: someone with a gun that is allowed to shoot the gun around randomly and if he happens to kill someone so what. One could make the case that if you don't like the risk just stay inside. There are essentially 2 realistic choices: 1. No Mandatory masks and many more people die and the economy goes to crap. 2. Mandatory mask wearing: and many more people live and the economy is much better. I don't think it's right that society is creating an unsafe environment for the vast majority by allowing people to just not wear masks. Also it is a very costly path to not have mandatory masks.

Has anyone had good luck with a great virtual assistant that would work for cheap (emerging country) and could do quality research? Wondering if it is worth it.

An exceptional article on Covid 19 https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

You are entitled to your freedom. You are not entitled to infringe on the freedom of others.

I'm gonna disagree with all three: IBKR - they are nickel-and-diming their customers like there's no tomorrow. Pay for quotes, pay trade commissions, pay if you don't have enough trades per month. Some of these may have been removed, but because of competition and not because IBKR are good guys. So zero loyalty to IBKR, screw them. DIS - I think the park prices are ridiculous. High-speed internet - most countries have much cheaper high-speed internet than US. US monopoly pricing sucks. IBKR is much better for smaller HFs than consumers. Now that the competitors offer free trade, it is much easier to trade through TD Ameritrade. IB is essentially is very efficient and passes much of it on. Payment for order flow is super sleazy IMO.

I think that is 100% right. It wouldn't cost anything if they distributed N95 masks at cost for all Americans to the pharmacies and people paid cost. That is what South Korea did. They are smart, I give them that. Masks would be an incredible high ROI. I actually just snail mailed some mask research to the most powerful person in the free world - The first lady - Melania Trump. We will see if she is able to get through to Trump. At least more and more people are slowly getting there and wearing more masks.

I think if everyone wore N95 it would massively reduce the R0 and thus people going into the hospital. Fair point though about leaving the N95 masks for healthcare workers- I am not 100% sure of which would be the right way. But everyone should at least wear surgical masks. They are available on Amazon, etc. Surgical masks are much more effective than homeade ones.