LongHaul

Given the response above, that may be a safe assumption, but I would welcome anyone who can prove epidemiologists wrong as well as the most credible participants in this thread by sharing with own complex model and a cost benefit analysis. The person with the best model wins, and so far the entire world's experts on the subject seem to agree that the benefits merit the costs. are the elderly and immunosupressed getting the complete preventitive/mitigation attention they deserve? of course not, because we are wasting scarce resources on all of us who dont need it...and cratering the economy to boot. the point is not to prove epidemiologists right or wrong for goodness sakes, but to take their input and make a rational response plan. instead, we have panicked and created unnecessary costs for all of us. not sure why other than we have lost our collective common sense. Cherzeca - I think Covid 19 is worse than the flu. There are still a lot of young people who are ending up in the hospitals (lower percentages likely). Point well taken that much higher risk for the elderly with comorbidities but don't assume this is just the flu for the young. Many need to go to the hospital for treatment. Personally I think none of us want anything to do with this in any way, shape or form. https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/coronavirus-new-age-analysis-of-risk-confirms-young-adults-not-invincible/

Excellent advice. This is true and funny at the same time. https://staythefuckhome.com/

I am not a doctor but happy to put my 2 cents in. Evidence Based solutions for Combating Viruses in the Human body Take Sambucol (Elderberry Extract) - Antiviral properties have been shown in multiple studies including reduced flu symptoms and with Coronavirus'. Not yet the Covid 19 but to me worst case it wont help, best case could help significantly. Gargle with Salt Water and Salt Water in Nose (3x per day) - Less time sick according to 1 study and less chance of transmission. Have Chicken Soup - Salty broth, hot liquids down throat and other beneficial nutrients appear to have a beneficial effect. Get Plenty of Sleep and Rest - Enhances Immune Defense and minimizes chance of getting sick in the first place. Drink More Liquids - Good hydration helps keep mucous loose and helps your body function at the optimal level. Minimize Stress - Stress can weaken the immune system Good Nutrition - Helps immune system function. If missing micronutrients Immune system may not be optimal. Articles and Studies https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1756464619300313 https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-6654291/Gargling-salt-water-cure-common-cold-body-produces-anti-viral-BLEACH.html https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3256323/ https://health.clevelandclinic.org/what-happens-when-your-immune-system-gets-stressed-out/ https://www.nature.com/articles/1601819 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3899428/ (S. Nigra (elderberry) rendered a coronavirus less infectious) from 2014) I would also ask for the most recent drugs that could help. Also - I have seen mentioned before that fever which is your body's natural immune defense helps lessen sickness length. I read today this which seems to confirm it. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/14/anti-inflammatory-drugs-may-aggravate-coronavirus-infection If you can best to let the fever run its course it looks like. FYI - I am on personal lockdown. Absolutely minimal contact with non-family and trying to keep a safe distance 6ft + from people. There is no upside for anyone to getting or spreading this. You can resume normal like when normality hits. Wishing everyone in the world to stay safe, be careful and be vigilant. Get well to those who have it.

Which businesses are likely to go bankrupt from the Coronavirus? The obvious candidate are weaker airlines and travel related companies. We could have 3 month to over a year of super weak bookings.

I've been wresting with the idea for a while. But I'm not so sure travel related small (and even larger) businesses will be affected. My thinking goes that if people are cancelling their European and other overseas vacations because there are cases at their destinations or because they're afraid to share a tube with 400 other people they may instead stay stateside and go on a vacation here. Instead of not going on vacation at all, they may get in their car, do a day of driving and spend time at a destination that never saw a Chinese person. It's a lot safer that way. If it actually turns out this way, there may be a bumper year for domestic travel related businesses. I own a small travel related business. While my business is very seasonal, my bookings are down 90% this week compared to the same week last year. And my net bookings are zero, as cancellations (most specifically reference coronavirus) have outweighed new bookings. My business is focused, however, on west coast gateway cities and business travel, which are probably the most affected areas. I agree a rural B&B in a pastoral location may see a benefit, but I think it's more likely people just stay home. Fascinating. Thanks for posting. Do you have thoughts on the cruise industry? or how bad this is vs prior sars, 9/11? I was looking at the cruise industry but I also read net booking were ZERO for them recently and am having trouble figuring out if they will stay solvent given how long this could last and if the deposits come down which would use cash. The 1918 Flu pandemic had 3 waves. Came and went 3x.

This forum has degenerated over the past few years but this is a new low. I would say vitriol like this is inexcusable but that’s up to Parsad. At the very least you should delete that post and apologize like a decent human being. +1 I agree. That comment was beyond rude. Deletion and an apology are the right thing to do.

Thanks Netnet. Looks great.

I would read Howard Schilit's Financial Shenanigans for some insights generally into frauds and some color on each of the 3 companies you mentioned.

Great article that claims China is lying https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871783 Assuming the current Crematoriums burned 60,000 bodies year in Wuhan which is ~1,150 per week then an additional 120 or so per week would not be such a big deal - An extra 10% burning. High probability that the Chinese government is totally full of shit. i like this article for data https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak

Guy Claims death toll over 50k in China https://www.ccn.com/billionaire-whistleblower-wuhan-coronavirus-death-toll-is-over-50000/

Elderberry = Sambucus nigra (Sambucol is a brand name) Sambucus nigra extracts inhibit infectious bronchitis virus at an early point during replication https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3899428/ Infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) is a pathogenic chicken coronavirus. Conclusions These results demonstrate that S. nigra extract can inhibit IBV at an early point in infection, probably by rendering the virus non-infectious. Not sure if it would work on the current Wuhan Coronavirus but you can buy 2 bottles at Costco for ~$25 FYI.

Very sorry to hear this Muscleman. My consolations to your family. How old was your relative?

Excellent summary of the situation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak Any thoughts on how to prepare? Far from a 0% probability that the Coronavirus comes to the US. Face mask prices have gone way up online and supplies down in the US FYI.

These studies show Walmart being cheaper than Amzn https://lendedu.com/blog/amazon-walmart-target-price-comparison/ For 2 minute comparison shopping I think it is worth it to compare. I think Walmart does have some other advantages over AMZN 1. Buying scale in certain areas. 2. More trustworthy company (IMO) as they screen suppliers more (at least in the store). 3. Not as flooded with fraudulent reviews and cheap crap. 4. Less annoying advertising.

I have been using Amazon for a very long time but recently have been buying more off Walmart.com and found Walmart.com to be cheaper ~70% of the time in the recent past. Walmart has significantly improved their website experience and selection in time. Has anyone else noticed this or is it just me and has anyone been buying more off Walmart.com?

I heard Grupo Modelo paid $10 million to name the Corona Virus.

Really interesting about the humidity and flu. Article on nutrition https://www.nature.com/articles/1601819 "Effects of nutrients on the immune system Without adequate nutrition, the immune system is clearly deprived of the components needed to generate an effective immune response. Human malnutrition is usually a complex syndrome of multiple nutrient deficiencies. However, observations in laboratory animals deprived of one dietary element, as well as findings in those rare patients with a single nutrient deficiency, have confirmed the crucial role of several vitamins, minerals and trace elements in the maintenance of immunocompetence. This includes vitamin A, beta-carotene, folic acid, vitamin B6, vitamin B12, vitamin C, vitamin E, riboflavin, iron, zinc, and selenium (Grimble, 1997; Chandra, 2002)."

Interesting on the Vitamin D. I am no expert but is seems that if one if deficient in any number of vitamins or minerals then that can only hinder the body's use of them as building blocks for immunity defense. Thanks for the research.

Evidence Based solutions for Combating Viruses in the Human body Take Sambucol (Elderberry Extract) - Antiviral properties have been shown in multiple studies including reduced flu symptoms. Gargle with Salt Water and Salt Water in Nose (3x per day) - Less time sick according to 1 study and less chance of transmission. Have Chicken Soup - Salty broth, hot liquids down throat and other beneficial nutrients appear to have a beneficial effect. Get Plenty of Sleep and Rest - Enhances Immune Defense and minimizes chance of getting sick in the first place. Drink More Liquids - Good hydration helps keep mucous loose and helps your body function at the optimal level. Minimize Stress - Stress can weaken the immune system Good Nutrition - Helps immune system function. If missing micronutrients Immune system may not be optimal. Articles and Studies https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1756464619300313 https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-6654291/Gargling-salt-water-cure-common-cold-body-produces-anti-viral-BLEACH.html https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3256323/ https://health.clevelandclinic.org/what-happens-when-your-immune-system-gets-stressed-out/ https://www.nature.com/articles/1601819

Good topic, thx for posting This was an interesting book - Even though there is survivorship bias I still learned from it. 100 to 1 in the Stock Market: A Distinguished Security Analyst Tells How to Make More of Your Investment Opportunities Paperback – January 1, 2015 by Thomas William Phelps I think there has be a few things generally: 1. Moat 2. Nicely growing organic sales increases 3. Undervaluation 4. Good mgmt It has to be a real moat - if I can start a competitor and jump in and take share, the profits and unit volume are at risk. Often times the company is riding a wave and very well run. Walmart, Nucor, Google, Amazon, Southwest, Netflix, Heico, Gillette, Coke, etc. I think the key is really identifying which companies will have very large revenue and profit increases over the next decade and then figure out the ones where it is not priced in.

That was excellent. Thanks for doing and posting. I definitely learned a lot.

Thanks for the heads up on the IB issue 1% issue. Sounds like a royal pain. Why did they do that? Is it US securities only?

Car Safety Data FYI. (major flaw though IMO is that it is not by vehicle miles traveled) but still interesting data. Driver death rates by make and model - IIHS (adjusted for age and gender) https://www.iihs.org/api/datastoredocument/status-report/pdf/52/3 Generally the heavier the vehicle the lower the driver death rate by category Average of 30 driver deaths per registered vehicle. Mini cars had 87 vs Midsize station wagons were 16 Cars 39 Minivan 19 SUV 21 Pickups 26

For me I just want a vehicle that will relatively safely and cheaply take me from A to B. When one looks at what a car is it just a lot of metal, plastics, rubber and other materials. Put your emotions aside on it. Many mechanics have told me get a Honda or a Toyota as they are well designed and highly reliable. I personally like the Toyota brand a bit better. A warranty company data also had a lot less claims with Toyota's. Toyota has a top down engineering and quality culture (The finance guys at the top are generally an avoid). I appreciate simplicity in engineering and design. I think I read the engines are engineered to last 250k miles and the transmission are known to be very reliable. (pro tip: If buying used look at the prices of used tranny's to see how reliable they are - if expensive that means there is a lot of demand for used tranny's). All of this can vary by model. I try to avoid over complicated engineering and more bells and whistles because the more parts there are the higher the chance of it breaking. So I personally would avoid like the plague Mercedes - garbage engineering for reliability in my opinion. Way too complicated and costly to repair and unreliable. I bought my Toyota car new, a long time ago. Totally stupid decision. Here is my ad for older cars which Madison avenue wont tell you. The benefits of an older car: 1. Much cheaper to buy (especially if you compound it out over decades) 2. No need for collision insurance 3. No worries if your kids or dog mess up the interior 4. No worries about minor dings (parking etc.) 5. Not creating envy. 6. Less time in switching cars every few years. Sam Walton drove a old beater pickup truck. I was surprised at how badly it looked when I saw it first hand. Smart guy. Munger and Buffett also drove beaters in the early years. Munger's daughter asked why he drove such a crappy car and Munger said "To keep the Gold diggers away!"

Ethics on hostile Takeovers discussion from 1987 with Buffett and many others. I found it very interesting. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F69HZT-zeyQ