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cubsfan

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Everything posted by cubsfan

  1. ^First Manhattan - home of Sandy Gottesman, First Manhattan founder and longtime Buffett friend and BRK board of director. Sandy owns $3-4B by himself! No surprise there.
  2. ^ Heavy drug use can do things like that to you!
  3. ^ If Berkshire trades below book for any length of time - all the successor need to do is buy back stock or issue tenders until the cows come home. Berk has never been the typical conglomerate and so many of the businesses are worth much more than book. Everyone knows Sees BV is something like $70M , but generates in excess of $100M annually just in earnings. Someone mention GEICO, we've seen figures BHE and BSNF. Below book would be an amazing gift to LT shareholders.
  4. ^ As someone that worked at and made a lot of money at McAfee in the early days - John is definitely a wild and crazy guy with a few loose screws.
  5. PANW - $342 - Palo Alto - dominant cloud security/infrastructure
  6. I do think one of the most fascinating things about Warren I ever saw was on CNBC 10 or 15 years ago. He was being interviewed by Becky or Liz Claman after one of the earnings releases. One of those 3 hour interviews. And he was rattling off sales numbers, revenue increase percentages, etc - like he does along with stuff about the US economic growth. We all know how amazing he is with numbers and business/economic figures, in addition to historical numbers. Well, the interviewer was amazed as well - and said something to the effect of 'do you just remember everything forever?' Warren says, 'well, no - these are things that interest me and I love business - and there's a bunch of stuff I'm not interested in and don't pay attention to' Interviewer says 'like what?' After a pause, Warren says 'well, like in my house. I couldn't tell you what color the carpet is in my bedroom' And this is a house he's lived in for 70 years now. I thought that was amazing. I have often looked for that CNBC clip - but have never been able to find it.
  7. Of course! You're my favorite jokester around here!
  8. More BABA - $239 They are certainly under some scrutiny. Jack Ma's pseudo fall-from-grace, the regulatory probe, Ant's shelved listing, etc. Is the thesis here a generic mean reversion? E.g. Competition is overblown, the underlying business can continue to generate meaningful profits, the regulatory/news-driven "cloud" will one day lift, etc.? Yeah, good questions. Basically, you are paying a fair price for a great business with a large moat. Not a cigar butt price, but a troubled price vs the opportunity. Still growing at a 30%+ clip, with tentacles in so many lines of business and countries in the Far East, let alone China. You can look at it on PE basis - PEG below 1. Regarding regulations, China, and Jack Ma - this will never be a Berkshire size position for me (20%+) - but 1-5%, I'm ok with. But you're certainly hitting on why BABA is discounted. If the price continues to fall, I'll keep adding up to 4-5%. It's a great dominant business. The thesis would be the bad news will subside, now that Jack has been slapped around, and the price will eventually reflect the revenue growth rate.
  9. Back in 2009 - a group of us were in a meeting with Susie Buffett. She talked about her father's diet. The stories you hear are true. She said she has never seen Warren eat a vegetable, other than French fries or hash browns. Maybe corn a few times. That's it. He won't eat fruit - only banana cream pie. She has never seen him drink a glass of water - it's cherry coke. For dinner he usually has a ham sandwich and ice cream. He always has his calories calculated perfectly - he knows exactly how much he can consume without gaining weight.
  10. Are you buying the NYSE ADR listing or HK ordinary shares? ADR's - plenty liquid
  11. ^ Damn, sounds suspiciously like the Global Warming advocates - fake it, till you make it.
  12. Don't believe your intuition Greg. It's not that the Governor is in grave danger of being recalled and is shitting bricks, since he's absolutely wrecked the California economy. That has nothing to do with it.
  13. Facts-motivated post submitted for 'analysis'. First dose given as % of total population in Illinois: 4.3% First dose given as % of total population in USA: 4.5% These %s are more than twice what is being achieved in Canada (and in my area where state, free markets, communities and individuals try to cooperate). You (or the ones to whom your collective trust has been allocated) must be doing something right during this challenging ramp-up phase. If looking for a circus, take a look at the comments on a site i've been following (with some participation): https://wirepoints.org/illinois-covid-19-crisis-daily-data-update-wirepoints/ Do you realize that (forgetting sunk costs) that Illinois is turning the corner (at least as far as Covid and herd immunity are concerned)? Cigarbutt - thanks much for the link, very helpful.
  14. ^ Yup - this rollout is being completely botched. Amazing after all the screaming for the vaccine. Local doctors tell you that you are eligible, but can't help you get the vaccine. It's a circus here in Illinois.
  15. Along the lines of MO, which I own - Imperial Brands (IMBBY) - equal metrics, slightly more dividend, wide moat. Also - HBI - 4% dividend, great operator, out of Target - but into Amazon. Nice Price/Cash Flow metrics. Great brand. Minor Fashion Risk.
  16. Congratulations - you daughter is a gem - and you've every right to be proud of her talents and hard work!
  17. In synagogoue last Sabbath, I heard a sweet elderly lady in a nearby pew saying a prayer. She was so innocent and sincere that I just had to share it with you: “Avinu she'ba'shamayim (Our Father in Heaven): This last year has been very tough. You have taken my favorite actors Sean Connery, Kirk Douglas and Diana Rigg; my favorite television host, Alex Trebek; Carl Reiner from ‘Your Show of Shows’; my favorite singer from the 50’s, Little Richard; even Charlie Daniels and Kenny Rogers my two favorite country western singers; and from sports you took Gale Sayers and my favorite basketball player Kobe Bryant.” “I just wanted you to know that my favorite politicians are Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, Chuckie Schumer, Adam Schiff and Jerrold Nadler." Amein... Happy New Year All!
  18. ^ There is nothing like good old Law and Order to help you sleep. Seems to be lost on our big city mayors and governors. At least NYC is in better shape than Chicago - and the bailout continues here. After many years of no RE appreciation in the suburbs (and large falling prices), homes in the suburbs are now selling like hotcakes as people flee downtown Chicago. The riots, burning, looting and gangbangers finally found their way to the Gold Coast, Magnificent Mile, and Near North areas - and citizens are not safe anymore.
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