cubsfan

They are getting better all the time! More Dangerfield on children: My kids, I got mean kids, the other day I told my kid "Some day, you'll have children of your own", He told me "So will you".. My daughter, she's no bargain either, she's been picked up so many times, she's starting to grow handles... Her friends call her Federal Express... when she goes to a guys apartment - she absolutely positively has to be there overnight...

Rodney Dangerfield on drinking: My father was a workaholic.....oh, yea... you mention "work" and he got drunk.. I finally solved my drinking problem..you know...I joined Alcoholics Anonymous....I still drink, I just use a different name.. My problem is I drink to much..way too much.. I gave my doctor a urine specimen...and there was an olive in it... I'm never have luck in bars...I saw this sign, it said Topless and Bottomless... I went inside..and there was no one there....I never get lucky..

"How to Fix a Drug Scandal". On Netflix - 4 episodes - documentary of prosecutorial misconduct in the Massachusetts Attorney General Office

One can only hope this will bring out the best in all of us.

The power of the data here is very weak but it suggests that the virus is more widespread in low or no symptoms carriers, which is exactly the underlying challenge with this virus. Think of it as an iceberg. The previous CV episodes had a very visible tip and almost no invisible underwater component. This CV (COVID-19) behaves more like influenza with a potential for a much larger invisible underwater component feeding the visible part for future development. Assessing if the wave of transmission is beginning, in the middle or at the end is important. Think of the Trojan Horse being rolled in the city. One could argue that the best scenario would have been to refuse the gift. An intermediate solution would have been to realize it was a mistake and try to mitigate the impact by containing the Horse. Another 'solution' would have been to (knowingly or not) go to sleep. Whatever the exact size of the invisible part of the iceberg (with more tests, we'll know more but present data overall suggest that the invisible part is small to moderate and still has the potential to grow++), what do you think of the visible part (deaths, hospitalizations). Using standardized data such as deaths per one million population, days since 1/1 000 000 person deceased, it looks like the US (still early the game, with a lag) will do better than Spain and Italy, about the same as France, UK, Sweden and worse than many others. Why do you think that's the case? I post this - because I really just don't know. But I have tremendous respect for some of the minds on CoBF - and certainly yours ranks right at the top. You are always balanced and find a way to explain things without the heat. Thanks for weighing in. Have a nice Easter locked up!

Another fluke? https://www.dailywire.com/news/early-antibody-testing-in-chicago-30-50-of-those-tested-for-covid-19-already-have-antibodies-report-says “A phlebotomist working at Roseland Community Hospital said Thursday that 30% to 50% of patients tested for the coronavirus have antibodies while only around 10% to 20% of those tested have the active virus,” Chicago City Wire reported Thursday. “Sumaya Owaynat, a phlebotomy technician, said she tests between 400 and 600 patients on an average day in the parking lot at Roseland Community Hospital. Drive-thru testing is from 9 a.m. to noon and 1 to 4 p.m. each day. However, the hospital has a limited number of tests they can give per day,” the report detailed. “Owaynat said the number of patients coming through the testing center who appear to have already had coronavirus and gotten over it is far greater than those who currently have the disease.” https://chicagocitywire.com/stories/530092711-roseland-hospital-phlebotomist-30-of-those-tested-have-coronavirus-antibody Owaynat said the number of patients coming through the testing center who appear to have already had coronavirus and gotten over it is far greater than those who currently have the disease. Sumaya Owaynat “A lot of people have high antibodies, which means they had the coronavirus but they don’t have it anymore and their bodies built the antibodies,” Owaynat told Chicago City Wire.

excellent graphic! We finally agree on something! Though I wonder if for different reasons... :-X Hopefully this won't be the last time!

Another interview - different group - Professor of Medicine, Stanford Medical School - who is astounded that we have shut down the economy for this:

That is one interesting interview - posted by Cherczeca - this is the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2491&v=lGC5sGdz4kg&feature=emb_title There seem to be plenty of epidemiologists that are questioning how this epidemic is being handled.

Nice find --- and facinating food for thought: With all respiratory diseases, the only thing that stops the disease is herd immunity. About 80% of the people need to have had contact with the virus, and the majority of them won’t even have recognized that they were infected, or they had very, very mild symptoms, especially if they are children. So, it’s very important to keep the schools open and kids mingling to spread the virus to get herd immunity as fast as possible, and then the elderly people, who should be separated, and the nursing homes should be closed during that time, can come back and meet their children and grandchildren after about 4 weeks when the virus has been exterminated…. We are experiencing all sorts of counterproductive consequences of not well-thought-through policy…. Well, we will see maybe a total of fewer cases—that is possible. However, we will see more cases among the elderly, because we have prevented the school children from creating herd immunity. And so, in the end, we will see more death because the school children don’t die, it’s the elderly people who die, we will see more death because of this social distancing…. If we had herd immunity now, there couldn’t be a second wave in autumn. Herd immunity lasts for a couple of years, typically, and that’s why the last SARS epidemic we had in 2003, it lasted 15 years for enough people to become susceptible again so that a new epidemic could spread of a related virus. Because typically, there is something that requires cross-immunity, so if you were exposed to one of the SARS viruses, you are less likely to fall ill with another SARS virus. So, if we had herd immunity, we wouldn’t have a second wave. However, if we are preventing herd immunity from developing, it is almost guaranteed that we have a second wave as soon as either we stop the social distancing or the climate changes with winter coming or something like that…. [Extreme reactions] cost the US taxpayer $2 trillion, in addition to everything else that it costs, but it also has severe consequences for our social life, and depression is definitely something that we will be researching. I can say for myself, walking through New York City right now is depressing…. We should be resisting, and we should, at least, hold our politicians responsible. We should have a discussion with our politicians. One thing we definitely need to do, and that would be safe and effective, is opening schools. Let the children spread the virus among themselves, which is a necessity to get herd immunity. That was probably one of the most destructive actions the government has done. We should focus on the elderly and separating them from the population where the virus is circulating. We should not prevent the virus from circulating among school children, which is the fastest way to create herd immunity…. And the final question and answer: “So, is there anything else you want to say about this that—what’s been aggravating you the most? Or what would you like people to know?” I think people in the United States and maybe other countries as well are more docile than they should be. People should talk with their politicians, question them, ask them to explain, because if people don’t stand up to their rights, their rights will be forgotten. I’m Knut Wittkowski. I was at the Rockefeller University, I have been an epidemiologist for 35 years, and I have been modeling epidemics for 35 years. It’s a pleasure to have the ability to help people to understand, but it’s a struggle to get heard.

Some stuff that comes to mind immediately reading this: We know what COVID19 from Sars-COV-2 looks like, right? If we started getting infections in November and in the interim had had millions and millions of infections, in such a scenario, why did nobody notice clusters of anomalous multi-day fevers, pneumonias and deaths, especially in older populations? X-rays and CT scans showing glass opacities? Why nothing until the WA infection clusters and such? Why hasn't healthcare system been sounding the alarm much sooner? And would all other countries also have not noticed? South-Korea and the US had their first cases at the same time (showing how much different they've handled it), were they both fooled by the virus for months and just happened to notice at the same time? Infections started in November in China, but at that point the number was so small for a country of 1bn+, what are the chances that infected people happened to travel on a plane to the US? If this started in November, then China would still be ahead on getting herd immunity, right? And if this thing was so asymptomatic, then the whole country would've gotten it before they could've locked down Wuhan, right? Much easier to move around China than to fly across the world to the US. Yet why hasn't the rest of the country seen the Wuhan experience replicated everywhere with fevers and pneumonias and deaths? Is China that good at hiding it around the country with lots of western companies watching locally and people on VPNs able to leak info? And why did things only start in Wuhan that late if the R0 is high enough for infection to proceed as fast as you theorize? Coronavirus isn't the influenza. The influenza has a way of mutating and evading vaccines that the coronavirus isn't known for, so trying to compare flu shot effectiveness to theoretical corona herd immunity doesn't work. Seems like the facts on the ground don't line up with your theory. i think there's clearly a lot more people infected than people who got tested positive, that's not controversial at all. Experts have various estimates, I've seen 10x, 30x.. But to think that the number is 100x or 200x over many months and nobody has noticed sounds implausible. Early serum tests seem to show low single digit positives, but time will tell. And trust me, I really want to believe that this is way more asymptomatic and that we're way closer to herd immunity than it seems. That would be AMAZING. But the data doesn't show that, afaict. We surely still don't have the answers and as a clinician without a test and symptoms mimicking the flu I think many were blinded by experience and diagnosed such as flu like symptoms and or pneumonia. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3076334/coronavirus-strange-pneumonia-seen-lombardy-november-leading There is that, surely anecdotal and at this point unless you dig up the dead bodies who knows. But again in medicine if your not looking for something (ie cant test for it) it can be under your nose and have no idea its there. Exact opposite now FWIW. I don't remember hearing about a strange pneumonia in Italy in November either just like you I'm sure, and look what happened there. I am aware of the ability for the flu to mutate, thus my hypothetical efficacy at 50% which is maybe on the high end of history but a round number so I chose it. :) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_vaccine Although early this data may change your mind. Will be interesting to follow for sure. https://www.bccourier.com/these-are-the-first-lessons-of-the-heinsberg-study/ These are the first, but already representative interim results: 1) at 15 Percent of the examined Gangelts residents were found to be infected 2)The likelihood of dying from the disease lies in gear at 0.37 percent 3)For comparison: According to the Johns Hopkins University, the lethality in Germany is currently 1.98 Percent – five times higher. Not herd immunity levels but worth following. Could be more than anecdotal for Italy: https://rmx.news/article/article/was-coronavirus-already-present-in-italy-during-the-fall Italian researchers are looking at the higher than the usual number of cases of severe pneumonia and flu in Lombardy in the last three months of 2019, as they suspect that the new coronavirus may have spread beyond China earlier than previously thought. Adriano Decarli, an Italian epidemiologist and professor of medical statistics at the University of Milan, said that the number of hospitalized patients with flu and pneumonia in the Milan and Lodi area increased significantly between October and December last year. According to Decarli, compared to previous years, hundreds more such cases appeared in the area at that time https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-timing/italian-scientists-investigate-possible-earlier-emergence-of-coronavirus-idUSKBN21D2IG He told Reuters he could not give exact figures but “hundreds” more people than usual had been taken to hospital in the last three months of 2019 in those areas - two of Lombardy’s worst hit cities - with pneumonia and flu-like symptoms, and some of those had died.

This is true. However, the initial commentary seemed more political than anything else, and while we would all like to think tha tthe general public is thoughtful and discerning it's just not reality. I think that the last election is more than enough to prove that point. Amongst my friend group (mid 30s) this is starting to bubble up as a topic whenever conversation turns to deficits and medicare, etc. I'd definitely agree with this. I think the young ones are beginning to wonder if they will ever own anything.

excellent graphic!

Thanks much Liberty - I'll assume you are correct as usual - and that this Stanford Medical study is a complete waste of time and money. https://www.ksbw.com/article/new-study-investigates-californias-possible-herd-immunity-to-covid-19/32073873 MONTEREY, Calif. — Researchers at Stanford Medicine are working to find out what proportion of Californians have already had COVID-19. The hypothesis that COVID-19 first started spreading in California in the fall of 2019 is one explanation for the state's lower than expected case numbers. As of Tuesday, the state had 374 reported COVID-19 fatalities in a state of 40 million people, compared to New York which has seen 14 times as many fatalities and has a population half that of California. Social distancing could be playing a role but New York's stay-at-home order went into effect on March 22, three days after California implemented its order. Hanson said he thinks it is possible COVID-19 has been spreading among Californians since the fall when doctors reported an early flu season in the state. During that same time, California was welcoming as many as 8,000 Chinese nationals daily into our airports. Some of those visitors even arriving on direct flights from Wuhan, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak in China. If Californians were exposed earlier than the rest of the country to COVID-19 we may have had a chance to build up some herd immunity to the disease. We won't know if that is the case until results from the Stanford Medicine study come back. The results of the study could also help us all to feel less scared of COVID-19. Limited testing has resulted in an artificially high death rate. The more people we can test who have mild symptoms, who are asymptomatic or who have recovered the less-lethal COVID-19 will seem.

California had a bad flu outbreak last fall - any chance it was missing COVID19 instead? https://patch.com/california/pacificpalisades/early-flu-deaths-hint-nasty-flu-season-california https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2019/12/04/flu-is-now-widespread-in-10-states-including-california-texas-alabama/#3dd6c30949a4 https://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-ln-flu-surge-20180106-htmlstory.html

There is no way this is possible. A couple people here told me so. Cant wait to see those antibody tests. Hopefully for everyone this speeds the timeline to herd immunity up. Two ideas that I still cant bring together are 1. The virus is very contagious, 2. A low level of the population has been exposed. Looking at normal flu year and the number of people that become infected compared to a virus like this that is "much more contagious" it doesn't make sense at first glance. I dont posit flu based on deaths but means of spread via sneezing, coughing, close contact etc. Flu Luckily we have a known benchmark, the 2018-2019 flu season with 35.5 million cases, wide spread testing and a cheap available vaccine given. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html 160ish million flu vaccines given in 2019 (not sure of efficacy for argument sake assume 50% so you protecting 80 million people from spreading it once exposed via respitory mechanisms) https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/coverage-1819estimates.htm Flu season running from November peaking in Jan and out to March/April. Partial/Inherited immunity Corona First cases in a country with daily flights to US in mid November, lockdown from said country 2.5 months later, widespread lock down mid march. Point is plenty of time for unfettered spread into the country at major international airports across the entire US. No vaccine and no monitoring for months. More contagious then flu, no herd immunity or individual immunity. Suspected very high asymptomatic and mild symptomatic case load contributing to exponential spread while in unoticed incubation period. ___________________________________________________________ That being said we come to the conclusion that the number exposed is very low? I dont get it, and didnt get it from the beginning. How do those 2 statements come together, anyone? 10% of the population definitively gets the flu with 50% of the nation vaccinated but only 1-5% has Corona now? Idk. :o Yes, quite difficult to comprehend.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/04/09/jobless-claims-top-6-million-united-states-coronavirus-batters-economy-tech-retail-restaurant-hotel-supermarket/ 1 in 9 California workers have filed for unemployment as coronavirus batters state’s economy

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/04/04/coronavirus-new-stanford-research-reveals-if-youve-been-exposed/ The 2,500 test slots on Friday and Saturday filled up within hours, as news of the project — the first large scale study of its type in the U.S. — spread quickly through the county. The test detects protective antibodies to the virus rather than the virus itself. This gives scientists a snapshot of how many people in the county have already been infected, but weren’t seriously sick and didn’t realize it. And it tells residents whether they carry potentially protective antibodies – so may be immune to future infection. “This is critical information,” said principal investigator Dr. Eran Bendavid, an infectious disease specialist and professor of medicine with Stanford Health Policy.

https://www.dailywire.com/news/nyt-calls-out-de-blasio-cuomo-for-coronavirus-failures-readers-thanks-for-finally-saying-something NYT Calls Out De Blasio, Cuomo For Coronavirus Failures; Readers: Thanks For Finally Saying Something My gosh, this just can't be - must be fake news - not Cuomo!

So if I understand this - lack of outbreak in CA is due to no subways and crowded public transportation and because it supposedly arrived in NYC from Europe from someone that was in Wuhan. Maybe I should also assume that CA doesn't have crowded elevators, shopping malls, restaurants , sporting events, etc. Nope - COVID19 is now a disease of the subway. Not to mention those direct daily flights into CA from Wuhan - I guess those planes are just not crowded enough - even given CA has the largest Chinese continent in the country. Why are these guys wasting their time.

California coast not nearly as dense as NYC. According to the NYT, the the majority of New York cases are European in origin. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/science/new-york-coronavirus-cases-europe-genomes.html Keep and open mind. I am keeping an open mind, I'm wondering why these brilliant epidemiologists from Stanford are wasting their time looking at the herd immunity issue. Good thing they are not on this thread - since they don't understand exponential growth and R0 !

So if this is true - NYC and Boston, and a few others have public transportation spreading the disease - the rest of the country, including rural America needs to be on total lockdown?

NY has 26X as many deaths as CA - yet the California coast is densely populated. You also have thousands living in filthy tent cities and no out break. In CA you have hospitals full of illegal immigrants - perhaps not overwhelmed yet... The social policies with both governors were implemented within days of each other. You had thousands of Chinese per day flying into NYC, LA, SF - more than any areas of the country. It all looks pretty similar.. There is an awfully lot of guessing going on here, that's for sure. Can't possibly be herd immunity, could it? Keep an open mind.

https://www.dailywire.com/news/tests-might-explain-lower-virus-numbers-in-ca-hit-earlier-than-suspected Researchers are testing a theory that the coronavirus COVID-19 may have arrived in California much earlier than suspected, and thus the state’s lower number of cases compared to elsewhere in the nation may be due to a kind of herd community. Hard to explain the difference between NY and CA - California has 2X the population of NY, yet NY has 13X the deaths from COVID-19. California was supposed to be an epicenter given the largest population of Chinese in America - and the most Asian travelers from China. If California were it's own country - it would rank much lower than Germany, which is a supposed success story. California is 1/2 the death rate of Germany. So what explains the difference NY and CA? Certainly, not density - as San Franscio, Santa Clara and LA are jam packed with people? In Fresno county with 1.2M people, there is only 1 death. This article suggests perhaps herd immunity. There is a lot we still don't understand.

1) You're not doing what you're saying your doing. You're not some epistemology geek trying to refine our thinking. You're just trying to score points with a few questions that don't really add any insight to the discussion, because we're clearly already aware of what you're saying here and then some. Meanwhile, you ignore all the other points that have been made to you and have no response for them and haven't updated your thinking on anything even when people point out the obvious flaws in what you say, so this isn't good faith discussion, just BS trolling on your part. Deaths from driving don't compound daily for weeks and weeks and risk destroying the healthcare sector of multiple countries by overwhelming it with patients while shutting down international travel and supply chains, btw. 2) The US definitely was on track for something in the magnitude of 500k deaths or more a few weeks ago when those numbers were floated, but changes in policy have changed the trajectory (mostly thanks to governors and mayors deciding to shut down in the face of a vacuum of leadership at the federal level, but many states were still much slower than they should've been if there had been leadership at the top, and they'll have bigger outbreaks than they otherwise would've -- was it the governor of Georgia who recently said he didn't know symptomatic people could transmit it and then shut down because of it?). There's reflexivity here, as high predictions lead to bigger actions which lead to fewer deaths (and then to dumbass saying "well, we did it for nothing, see how it wasn't as bad as initially predicted?"). It's Y2K all over again. If we do it right, the early predictions don't come to pass, but it doesn't mean that we should've done nothing. The variables are linked, not independent. Definitely one of your best answers Liberty. And yes, you made me see the light on the comparison to auto deaths - perfect - not exponential. I have NO idea if this one size fits all approach is the correct approach. I seriously mean that - it's humbling trying to figure it out. I do expect the deaths and costs to the country for an extended lockdown will be immense. That is pretty obvious. The sooner people get back to work the better. I read the Hammer and Dance a few times last month. I get it. It's highly contagious, and it's lethal depending on age/condition. I'm still not sure of the true cost to society. And if there are workarounds for areas of the country that do not look like NYC - they should be explored. Masks, hygiene, social distancing, isolating the vulnerable, etc - all seem to play reduce the problem. Either way - there are lots of lives at stake. I still think it pays to be humble given the unknowns.