Palantir

In the thread on Accenture PLC, one member stated a valuation method where the expected return on investment in a share = FCF Yield + Growth. I stated that if you were to do it on a per-share basis, then you have to exclude the share repurchases from the FCF Yield as they do not flow to stockholders and are reinvested in the firm in order to increase future FCF/share, and counting them in FCF Yield would be double counting as it is already reflected in the rising earnings yield. However, two other posters disagreed, what's your take? http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/accenture-plc-acn/msg135032/#msg135032

What I do "Time Weighted Return": 1) Measure Account value at beginning of year. 2) The day before I add cash, measure the account value. Find the rate of return. 3) Repeat until year end. 4) Link these RoRs. Wish there was a better way, but this works.

On first viewing Red Hat really doesn't look cheap. you are correct sir. it hasn't looked very cheap in years. it's a growth stock and if it growth ever slows there is lots of room to fall. it's trading at 3.3% earnings yield based on average of next fiscal year estimates. Why would you ever use earnings yield to value Red Hat? Please familiarize yourself with the company.

^ Not quite, even if growth slows, I still feel that return can be high.

On first viewing Red Hat really doesn't look cheap. I disagree. A 5% FCF Yield + historical growth rate of 15-20% gives me a pretty high expected return of 20-25%. Even if growth is cut in more than half to 7%, it gives an expected return of 12%, which is still good.

Keep at it, they will come. . ;D I'll second that motion!!! I avoided a lot of the "beginner" mistakes that people have cited partly because I played with mock portfolios for a few years while paying off student loans. I highly recommend beginners do the same. :) Better to invest in sketchy Chinese microcaps with fake money rather than real.

Might dip into Red Hat.

No major mistakes yet, but I'm only 2 years into the game. - Buying a stock only because it was a net net, trading at a big discount to stated assets. - Not adding more to positions after declines. Must have confidence!

Is it fair to say that Dividends, rather than Free Cash Flows are the relevant cash flows to discount in valuation? If this is the case, do you add Debt to the Market Cap to get EV or do you just compare it to price?

I think this is awesome, the more capital formation, the better.

This is an interesting comment. Consumer Handbag Survey "Vera Bradley’s ownership and awareness follow a barbell pattern with age and income; women under 30/over 50 years old and under $50,000/over $100,000 in household income lead ownership/awareness." Brand % Ownership # Bags Per Owner Coach 68% 3.6 Vera Bradley 41% 3.2 kate spade 34% 2.2 Michael Kors 23% 2.0 Excellent link sir. Reading up on COH.

If you're holding a heavily shorted stock, do you get interest payments if loaned out?

bump...

Anyone have a SA Pro subscription? I want to read one particular article....but don't feel like buying a subscription just for one article....if anyone is willing to let me mooch one article...it would be greatly appreciated... :)

I don't believe there is a strong or persuasive argument for a bear market. I believe as long as monetary stimulus happens, equities will perform well, and if monetary stimulus is pulled, it is because there are strong expectations of economic growth, in either case both are bullish.

The issue is, IMO, why is the question significant? Does he expect a lot of high inflation in the future? I'm heavily skeptical of substantial inflation in the future btw.

For tech firms, I always count acquisitions as CapX.

Chicos FAS is interesting...

I doubt it is something like what others have mentioned, probably an asymmetrical bet like a rights or warrant offering.

This is good news, IMO he was touted primarily due to his political pull, but given his vast ties to Wall street, his role in deregulation, and utter dismissal of the rising credit bubble in 05 make his judgement pretty questionable. Sums it up well: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/09/translated-into-truth-on-summers-withdrawing-name/

We are in a long, epic bull market that will last for many years. My guess is as good as anyone else's :)

Do I need to hack into your email again? 8)

I use scottrade, interface is meh, but it's only 7/trade.

I invest in franchise/moat firms because it's easier. Great companies are very easy to spot, the only painful part is waiting until the market presents an opportunity, and having the cojones to buy into it. This microcap/netnet/special situations stuff is really hard to understand for me. Also, being a man of leisure, I prefer to leave the hard work to the company managements while I sit on my a__. That being said, I'd rather invest in microcaps/netnets/special situations, as those will probably do better, and to improve my technical skill as an investor.

Where do you find the financials for these? They're not on OTC markets or the SEC website....do you have to contact the firm for an AR?