Mikenhe

Wow, 5.75% is a smoking good rate! yeah - and yet I still have to laugh at moodys and S&P's ratings...

The speed is due to Muslim beliefs. Burial at sea is acceptable as I'm sure that theres no Government that would have wanted him buried on their lands. I hope they gave him the proper send off according to Muslim beliefs. As someone above mentioned congrats to the CIA for their part in tracking him down. And very well done for training him so well that he could be on the run for a decade without being caught ;)

that is excellent!

I couldn't help myself... just bought some more when it went under 360. now at 25% of my portfolio...

I think this is a very good move for Fairfax. they have found someone iin whom they can entrust the insurance development side of the operations to. no doubt, lik e how they run their companies, Mr Barnard with have full control of the companies under him. This means that they have a full on 100% person with a history of sucess running that side of the company. this leaves those other guys - the fairfax people just ot focus on investment of current assets, futures assest, nopn insurance stuff and possible future investments, be they total control of non insurance or partial control. IE - the toronto team doing what they do best. As a shareholder its hard to be upset with that!

slightly less than yesterday as it keeps dropping while the rest of the portfolio is increasing ;D

The retirement question is one that is eating away at me. I just don’t know how to plan for it – or more to the point when the right time to say goodbye to the full time job is. I can’t see myself quitting totally and am currently planning to head into the big wide world of consulting – when I know I can get a few gigs a year for a couple of years. Doin something to cover expenses is what I’m looking for – and that may be as low as 3 months a year. Not an impossible target. After that (or maybe at the same time) I plan on doing some part time volunteer work. If its paid then that’s a bonus – but something as simple as meals on wheels to the local community – brings something of value to more than just me. The long term money still needs to increase and the mortgage decrease but I’m comfortable with having a mortgage where the interest rate is low and tax efficient and having the same amount working for me in the markets. It helps that I can get out of my job in a few years with a severance package that could easily cover 3 years worth of expenses. Throw in the consulting for a couple of years and I could cover 5 years without touching any of the funds I currently have invested. However as I approach mid forties I know that the odds of getting full time work at the end of that period would probably be very low so I may need to make sure that I do a few more years in the cube farms to build up the funds first. I’m fortunate in that I have a wife that loves her (low paid) job and she can get family health benefits there that would cover a big chunk of expense. Five more years? 7? 10? I don’t have the answer. I’m not sure I’ll ever have the right answer as to when to jump – or even if there is a right answer… I do have to do 7 more years in the US system to qualify for social security… but I don’t think I’ll be relying on that!!

Working or browsing from home. I bet those in the Northeast are thinking ... what happened in Texas? You get 3 snowflakes appear at once? enough to cause panic...

just over 20%. would have been better but I have a decent chunk of my portfolio tied into FFH - on the other hand I guess that now gives me some sort of stability - who would have said that about FFH a few years ago? I was also hampered by my usual indecision, procrastination and poor timing. I need to work on changing that - or convincing myself that they are actually good things :D

Lehman Bros. That was a painful lesson in a few ways – firstly I bought it because it was a broker recommendation. I figured that they knew more about the market than I did – well as a collective they probably do but on individual stocks I can do my own value judgment. However I did look into it and thought that regardless of the market the banks and brokers always make money and I figured that worse case would be a small loss. Then I discovered that my own tendencies for procrastination cost me dearly. The shares went up and I was up in that position for quite a while and failed to sell because the increase in price proved that the broker, and my limited research and thoughts, were correct. I failed to take a profit in a business I didn’t fully believe in. When things turned sour I also thought that there was no way that a company that size and of that importance would be allowed to go under (dumb in the extreme as I have worked for a large company in the past that wasn’t able to get the backing that it should have and it too went under). Finally – and to rub salt in the wounds – I bought Lehmans when FFH was trading at just over $100 a share. The money I used to purchase Lehmans was money I was going to put into FFH. I did buy FFH but not as much as I should have. Lessons learned. Be aware of your failings – mine is procrastination. Do your research and re do it. Act on it (or not as the case may be) Don’t rely on the advice of your mass market broker. The good news was that I took the lessons on board (mostly) and began directing my a large part of my 401K just after Lehmans went under and so far its worked out pretty good. I haven’t made huge amounts of money but I have tended to avoid my funds falling in value when the market has gone down and have generally matched the increase in line with the market rising.

looks like run off is not just steady but instead producing positive returns.

garmin have released a phone in conjunction with tmobile (and maybe others - I know I have seen it on the tmobile site). Thats a tough market to break into. I have a tom tom that I purchased a couple of years ago and found it to be pretty good. I did buy further updates for it - for when I travelled to England and wanted the gps there. I do now have a gps enabled smartphone - I have it hooked up to the speakers and play music and podcasts on it as I'm driving - I've used the gps app on the phone a few times and found it to be fairly accurate - plus it cuts off the music and delivers the directions over the speakers. I don;t find the need to be looking at the screen (apart from my ocd tendencies to want to know exactly where I am and how far to the next exit). Given the quality of the gps service on the phone and automatic upgrades etc (plus the ability to search for a place and just click to get directions) I can't see me buying another gps device. the only issues that I would consider is that I don;t want to be using my phone abroad dueto the costs of the data service and that once you are out of the main coverage ares its possible that the phone (and therefore the gps) can drop out of coverage and it would probably then be as clueless as I am as to my location). I think garmin need to develop a partnership with a major carrier and expand their influence that way.

;D I know that feeling...Portfolio value to gross salary would be a false measurement for me With a wife, 3 kids, a large mortgage a few debts etc etc… its not easy to increase the portfolio value apart from the growth of the portfolio itself. The portfolio would not be sufficient to live on with my current expenses. However I do make sure that with the 401K and another saving plan that I’m adding about 20% of my gross salary to my portfolio each year. If I can up that to 30% next year then I’d be very happy. By the time the immediate expenses of children (and that includes a house , 2 cars etc etc) has diminished then I fully expect that the portfolio will be able to sustain the expenses of a 2 person household – and one that expects to travel a fair bit as well. What is that as a multiplier of my gross salary? I have no idea but I think if I keep growing the portfolio then I stand a good chance of it working. My biggest concern is medical coverage costs for what ever reason. maybe A healthcare provider could start doing discounts for shareholders – I’d look into that!!!

35% increase in book value for the year. Plenty of gains to come from the acquisition of 100 of ORH and the ventures in India and china plus they also have UK, south American, Middle east and Polish interests. And that’s just the insurance piece of the business. I do not have any concerns over the 100% ratio as they are known to reserve fully rather than at a discounted amount. That means less income being exposed to potential tax and available to invest now. I’d rather they did this and have a higher CR and be able to discount later than discount reserves now and try to make up the difference with investments. The takeover of Zenith will give them access to funds that are conservatively invested and give FFH the chance to do what they do best – invest. I hope nobody gets too excited about the moves they have made in laying the groundwork for the future – because I’m still happy to buy at this price.

Thank you! I love this stuff - especially as I homeschool my kids - this makes it way easier and can open their eyes to new ideas. I'd love to see anything else you have like this.

it bodes very well for companies who typically reserve high and reduce to more accurate levels later.. like FFH...

to all? even the ffh shorts???? ;D oh ok - happy xmas and a unprosperious new year to the shorts - I hope they add to the ffh bottom line next year. I'm finishing 2009 with my retiremnt funds at a all time high - mainly due to the knowledge and confidence that I have aquired from this board and its members. not just the ones I agree with but the ones that have challenged me to examine and re- examine my holdings and the reasons I have them. and that gives me a warm happy glow at this time of year - or is that the wine??? happy holidays all. may 2010 be more growth - finacially, intellectually and spiritually. wish I could spell though...

Ryanair is an interesting story and company with a truly unique individual leading it. The flights are on time and cheap. However they don’t use the main airports so you end up 30 miles from the destination you want to be at and if you check bags and Ryanair lose them the chances of seeing it again is remote. They are a good investment as they don’t get saddled with the traditional problematic union legacy that most other airlines face. If you want to travel with them they are great – take a bag and just get on with it and don’t ever labor under the illusion that you as a customer mean anything to them. They are cheap enough that repeat business from customers is irrelevant.

I've thought about Canada but I'm not sure that the diet of Poutine and Tim's would be good for me... plus I haven;t found out yet where Fairfax advertises the jobs in the head office yet.... ;D

I ate my first Five guys burger 2 weeks ago. One cheeseburger, large fries, coke, water and a little cheeseburger came to about $17. The line was out of the door but I wanted to try it. Took 10 minutes to get served about another 7 minutes for the food to arrive – getting a table took a couple of minutes – but it was a busy Saturday Lunchtime. I like the limited menu – that appeals to me. Know what you do well and focus on it. Makes it simpler for the staff, setting theplace up, the customers etc etc. But you have to do it right. This place did it right.. staff were quick, efficient and even though it was slammed they had 2 staff members in the sitdown area constantly cleaning. Its not a cheap burger but it is very good. Its about 20 miles from me so if I’m in that area then I’d consider stopping there rather than any other fast food joint. If it was closer I probably wouldn’t be in there much more as it isn’t cheap for a quick meal. My very particular 7 year old daughter ate all of the burger and assisted with the fries and gave it a thumbs up. She was not happy that we went there instead of going to a burger king (for the piece of free plastic tat they were giving away that week) but after eating she approved of the choice. Even with the 2 of us we did not finish the large fries. This Five guys was in a strip mall and may turn out to be the perfect size once the initial rush has died down. However parking was an issue for some and seating for that many people was proving a problem. I’d love to see a steak and shake up here in the north East USA. I shan’t be holding my breath though.

My grandmother was having knee transplants and being treated for temporal arteritis when she was older than Warren Buffett. I suspect that your assertions are based on rumor and not fact.

True. The from a British perspective someone Buffet's age is way too old to be treated, so almost any little health problem could be deadly. It doesn't work that way (yet) in the US. Although even when it does Buffet will have the money to fly to Mexico and pay cash for superior healthcare over the boarder. --Eric So you are either an international healthcare expert or you are talking garbage? Got any other sweeping generalizations you’d care to share?

the transcript of the cc http://seekingalpha.com/article/170221-fairfax-financial-holdings-limited-q3-2009-earnings-call-transcript?source=yahoo&page=1

They could improve the CR by cutting back the reserving. That way the CR could be at 95%. However if they did that wouldn’t it mean that they would be taxed on the profit now rather than invest the float with reserving in full? By fully reserving now don’t they get to keep the float longer and only get taxed when they realize the reserve redundancy? It seem a bit like the commute argument. They appear to lose money on the commutes when what they are doing is getting 100% certain discounted cash now and removing a fully reserved potential future collection from reinsurers. Plus they buy reinsurance to protect against a portion of any huge loss.

Rough figures: 2008 down 35% 2009 up 65% most of my losses in 2008 came from a couple of investments that were recommended to me by my broker – coupled with my greed in trying to squeeze an extra few dollars out of a share that I knew I should sell and it bouncing to zero. Plus I was in a few funds that I wasn’t happy with. This year I took a lot more thought and care in my investments and have actually realigned my holdings into shares that I have faith in and have actually researched. I still need to do more of that in my 401K though but the options in my plan are limited so I’ve settled for a couple of changes and just carried on putting money in there – with the company match and tax shelter status it would be foolish not to. What helped me on the upturn was investing (or staying invested) in companies I had faith in and believing my own analysis of companies. Plus actually having the guts to execute on those beliefs instead of passively accepting what was happening. FFH and ORH helped a bit too…..even then it would have been as much help if I hadn’t pulled out of some funds in mid 2008 and invested in those two shares more than I had previously. Looking back now and realizing what I didn’t know about what I was investing in is a scary thought.