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muscleman

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    FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    5 hours ago, Wiggins said:

    But your analysis is all hindsight as well, including characterizing in retrospect whether we are dealing with a bear or bull market.

     

    I think the securities were oversold. Any good news or even neutral news out of Lamberth's court and we'll double from here irrespective of whether the thesis ultimately prevails. My reasoning in the short term is that skittish investors have forgotten there are other trials and/or have just become fatigued but news from Lamberth and/or Schwartz will be a reminder that there are other ongoing trials which have a decent chance. Part of the recent uptick I think was folks saw that some big institutions increased their holdings after SCOTUS. You're on record as saying the bottom is not in.  I say we're there and time to load up. We'll see who's correct soon enough.

     

     

    Sure!

    I actually think the overall market is building a top and about to roll over, which will put a lot of pressure on FNMAS and drag it down as well.

    FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    4 hours ago, allnatural said:

    If anyone managed to pick the bottom this week (I was not), they would already be up ~30% in a few days time for FNMAS/FMCKJ. Not bad for dead money.

     

    I would challenge you to find out the 10 single largest up days since 2007.

    Hint: They are mostly in 2008.

    Usually bear markets are much harder to play with because in hindsights, it is very tempting to think "Had i bought yesterday, I would have been up 15% today".

    Bull markets on the other hand, usually have small up and down days but go for a long time.

     

    FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, sholland said:

    If the government wants to win in the takings case all they have to say is that dividends will be resumed when the GSEs are fully capitalized. Current trajectory is about 15 more years. Preferred shareholders aren’t entitled to dividends until fully capitalized. 

    Why is the takings case taking so long? There hasn't been any progress at all in the last 2 years right? Is the judge sleeping?

    FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Wiggins said:

    I agree with your last two posts.

    You may be right and I might lose, but I like my odds at 6% of par. If we recovered 75% of par and it took a few years that's still a massive return.

    This feels like distressed debt investing to me, which is not for everyone. It sucks, it's uncomfortable, it's unnerving... and then you win. And in those situations the time to buy is when people are panicking. Yes, it doesn't always work out but I believe this one will...

     

    I would like to see more analysis on Lamberth and on Schwartz. That's where the action is IMO.

    Good luck!

    I've been trading this around over the years and I don't think the bottom is in yet. This is a highly illiquid stock with big funds buying day after day when some good news start to show up, or selling day after day when some bad news start to show up. I think there is still a long way to go before they finish dumping all their positions.

    I think the best time to get in is when we start to have some hints of good news showing up and we know these big boys will start buying day after day for multiple weeks.

    FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    53 minutes ago, Wiggins said:

    The answer to this question is best stated by Baron Rothschild: "the time to buy is when there's blood in the streets."

    Never believe in what the guys say. They make money from insider trading. Remember the Rothchild's family's most famous UK bond trade?

    If you get excited simply because everyone else is scared, you can still lose a lot of money. Look at the oil stocks from 2014-2020.

    FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    58 minutes ago, Wiggins said:

    Most people are selling and very pessimistic, but I am buying. What part of "contrarian" about that scenario is unclear?

    Oh i see. Yeah that's absolutely clear that going in right now is a contrarian bet.

    Over the years, I found that neither contrarians nor herd followers make consistent money. It is important to understand when to be a herd follower and when to be a contrarian.

    I see too much risk being a contrarian right now.

     

    FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    4 hours ago, Wiggins said:

    Disagree; I am buying.

    Throwing out someone's name as justification for any type of investment decision is weak. If you're following the herd this looks like a bad investment.

    This is a contrarian investment and that couldn't be clearer now.

     

     

     

     

    "couldn't be clearer now."???

    I don't see that point. If we get a SCOTUS positive ruling then you could say that. But how could you say that with such a negative ruling.

     

     

    FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.

    in General Discussion

    Posted · Edited by muscleman

    This is likely dead money for at least a year right?

    One really important thing to remember: Anything Glen Bradford touches, he turns gold into lead. Same for those Chinese reverse mergers in 2011. Same for FNMAS.

    Back in 2011, when those Chinese reverse mergers got delisted, investors were making cases for why it would be a buying opportunity because these were legit companies and they would move to HK to relist. They later drafted lower and lower to worthless.

    I think the same is likely to happen here, until we get close to another legal catalyst.

    I would warn anyone trying to bottom fish this sucker now.

     

    Trillions after trillions

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Didn't we just have two trillion dollar bills already this year?

    Now the 3rd one coming.

    When Bill Clinton requested a 20 Bn stimulus 20 years ago, he probably would have never thunk of the day when politicians easily talk about trillions and trillions.

     

     

    FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

    Sometimes you just need to move on. Or just leave the position alone. Taking losses is part of the game. Nothing to be phased by. If there are lessons to learn, learn from them. Otherwise, its not much to cry over. No different really then a card counter crying because they lose a hand. Just part of the game. 

     

    Yeah. Just like how I dealt with my tremendous losses in 2011 with the US listed Chinese reverse merger frauds. I took the losses and moved on. Glen Bradford was the cheerleader for those craps back then. Can't believe our fate crossed over again this time.

     

    Overall, using a trading approach for FNMAS worked well. The last loss was properly positioned as a binary outcome for a very small position sized, which unfortunately did not work out. But people who buy every dip of FNMAS like what they do with the long term compounders like AMZN have to take a big hit and big lesson.

     

     

    FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, investorG said:

     

    "for sure"?   I don't think much is for sure.  I do believe however that "if" FnF are ever public companies again and paying a common dividend then we are looking at 15x return from current levels.  And the downside is capped at 1x.

     

    Over the years, I've learned that being a trend follower is much easier than being a contrarian. Right now I could see that since the NWS started in 2012, the trend is to kill it. Trump gave us high hope to reverse that course but somehow neither him nor Calabria did anything. That just tells us how strong the trend is to kill FnF.

     

    Now with the SCOTUS loss, do you really think the trend is shifting?

    I don't see any reason for that.

    FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, investorG said:

    For those who have been on this board longer than a couple weeks, the posts currently remind me of the 'should we go all in at 50% of par' but in reverse.  We are actually at a moment for the first time in 8+ years where the name of this board actually applies - in search of a 10 bagger.

     

    The court cases are the court cases - your guess is as good as mine.  On one hand I have read the max return in the Lamberth case is well above par with interest but on the other hand we could easily lose and the courts would take years.

     

    But what do we expect when Yellen is asked about her FnF plan in a Congressional hearing:   "we plan to restart the NWS to fund affordable housing giveaways", or, "we would like to work with Congress in the coming years to find a permanent solution for FnF that helps all Americans especially those at lower income levels"?  If the former, well then that's no good and so back to the courts or 3.5 years for a potential new admin.  If the latter, should the shares trade here?

     

    Many investors held on post January waiting for the SC.   They are exiting at any cost, and offer some series currently at 6% of par.  The companies have $50bn of capital and rising.   I think the market and media are missing that it's not a sure thing that the Biden administration follows exactly what Obama did even though many of the same people are involved.  The situation is different and the BlackRock and Pimco group appears to want the federal guarantee which only comes through Congress.

     

    You could argue about this at 6% par but it will be dead money for a long time for sure. And who knows what price it will be 1 year from now. Maybe 3% of par.

    At least my criteria is to find stocks that are flat for a long time and start to go up, and this one doesn't fit that.

     

    FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Castanza said:

    LOL wow what a hack of a job hit piece. Not worth reading past the first sentence. Mark Joseph Stern….you sir are a pos “journalist”
     

    “dislodge from the treasury”

     

    ”scheme backfired” 

     

    “claw back billions” 


    “previous arrangements” 

     

     

     

     

    Well.... I think the most important lesson is to pick the right fight. Yes I am equally disgusted with these access journalists. But sometimes you have to recognize the shift in tide.

    Since Obama came in power in 2009, there has been this massive shift from investigative journalists to access journalists, and the whole country is becoming more and more like China, with no law, no freedom of speech, and the government is becoming more totalitarian, and being politically correct is more important than having common sense and having the rule of law.

    I don't see any sign that this trend is going to shift back right now, and I am disgusted by that.

    From that point of view, we should be grateful of these access journalists because they are telling us what WILL happen next.

     

    FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    3 hours ago, sholland said:

    5th Amendment Takings claim is 1-2 years away. On the eve of that case does anyone think the preferred shares will not be trading much higher than 8-9 cents on the dollar?  This seems like the point of maximum pessimism. 

     

    Buying a falling knife is the last thing you want to do. You don't know how many funds are being liquidated because of this. FAIRX could be facing big redemption pressure for example. 

    I think the long term buy and hold investing mentality for a traditional high moat growth stock simply does not apply to FNMAS. You can't just buy every dip and expect great results from it.

     

    FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, COBFInfinity said:

    Just wanted to mention for those who weren't watching the price action - the earliest trades after the decision was released caused a pop in common and preferred shares, but then soon sunk. Some investors either jumped the gun after seeing something positive but not going through all the details, or algorithms assigned to decipher the decision got it wrong.

     

    That resembles the opposite of Rothchild's UK bond trade. When the war news came, he was the first one to know it, and he sold as much as possible. Others did not know what was going on but they saw Rothchild selling like the end of the world so they joined, selling at pennies, and Rothchild bought aggressively from them.

     

    There are algos that are designed to trick the other algos to think the other algo knows something that it didn't, and follow the action there. I suspect the initial pop was done by one algo trying to trick the other algo.

    FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    30 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

    https://seekingalpha.com/author/glen-bradford#regular_articles

     

    You wanna start the gofundme or should I?

     

    I enjoyed his analysis from time to time but holy risk management. 

     

    Back in 2011, I was following Glen Bradford into a few US listed Chinese reverse mergers and they turned out to be frauds one by one. Glen became quiet for a few years and then became a GSE preferred's cheerleader. Now he has a perfect record that 100% of what he touches turns into crap.

    FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    There was no sign of technical weakness before this. Actually the chart looks like it is about to shape up. But something out of blue like this ruling certainly can have dramatic impact on where the water flows next.

    I am glad I was only on a tiny position since March, after seeing how SCOTUS behaved after the election. It is no longer a place for rule of law anymore.

    The US is quickly deteriorating into another version of China, and China is sliding into another version of North Korea, unfortunately.

     

    When will the Fed stop QE and raise rates?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    31 minutes ago, fareastwarriors said:

    Maybe I'm too socialist/communist to think like this but damn I think we can afford to pay workers a bit more, have some better benefits, and provide more training, especially in our largest businesses.   Be more like Costco. 

    Maybe pay "management" a bit less and a bit less focus on shareholders returns. On average, we, shareholders, are doing more than fine.

     

     

     

     

    It depends on what industry you are referring to. I think it is a case by case situation. For example, Germany workers have been known to be highly paid, while being highly productive. If you try that in other parts of EU, it may not work out at all.

    But what has this to do with the current catch 22 that Fed is playing? Fed keeps doing QE because unemployment is high, but unemployment is high because people are taking more case at home than going to work.

    This thread's intention is to discuss when that may end to predict when QE may end. Please not use this thread to whine about other matters.

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