muscleman

What if the commitment fee after the Senior preferred is cancelled is really high and it leaves very little profit available to common holders?

I don’t think the recap can settle that, but I don’t think that one has any foot to stand on. The AIG case pretty much makes this impossible.

The ideal situation is that all talking heads are bashing while the stock mysteriously inches up. Right now we have all good news blowing but stock steadily going down, which is the opposite. I am still waiting for the ship to turn before buying while waiting for your ship to set sail the train may be leaving the station I am no longer a value investor. I am very disciplined, and if the ship leaves the station, I'll find another stock to buy. I also don't even care if I am buying at the lowest price anymore. What I care about is the EXPECTED return should be highest when I buy, not the highest return when the OPTIMAL situation happens.

The ideal situation is that all talking heads are bashing while the stock mysteriously inches up. Right now we have all good news blowing but stock steadily going down, which is the opposite. I am still waiting for the ship to turn before buying

Another TA expert here. People please come and have a round of tounting. ??? Joking aside, this is why historical tops are important, but as a rule of thumb, as time passes by, more and more people give up and sell at a loss during the Christmas tax loss sell season, so the further away the prior top, the less importance it is.

john Bolton was fired today. I wonder if the market is predicting that Mnuchin is next? If you look at all these rumors around White House officials, Tilson, John Kelly etc got rumored about their tense relationship with Trump and later they got fired one by one. I think the prior rumor about Mnuchin could be true, and we do see how messy this China trade war has been.

Yeah I agree. However the news is not powerful enough to disrupt the TA patterns. I am turning bullish though and looking for an entry when TA sets up. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=5&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwja1IOV7sbkAhWqIjQIHc6kCEsQFjAEegQIABAG&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cbsnews.com%2Fnews%2Fmike-pompeo-steven-mnuchin-speak-news-conference-live-stream-today-2019-09-10%2F&usg=AOvVaw2Pp2jJq1PaUeveneFNLoJt I wonder if the rumors about Mnuchin and Pompeo resignation last month is real. It seems to me that all these rumors are.

I'm more interested what the stock does two weeks from now. I bet we get either NWS ended/modified or a settlement by then. Likely a gap up and then up 30%. This is the short coming of my current approach. When shocking news comes to the market, it disrupts any TA. I am fully aware of this short coming and accept it. I’ve also seen countless times when it goes the other direction like the Perry ruling.

so this ruling did not give plaintiffs any relief as they requested? Instead it is a remand to lower court like the Perry case? IT VACATED THE DISMISSAL. CLAIM IS ALIVE AND BASED UPON DECISION'S MAJORITY OPINION, THIS IS A VERY WINNABLE CASE FOR PS IF IT WERE EVER TO PROCEED TO TRIAL. sorry for all caps, but just saying... Thank you! I appreciate it!

so this ruling did not give plaintiffs any relief as they requested? Instead it is a remand to lower court like the Perry case?

Wow that’s incredible. Congrats on those holding. Can Chris share your thoughts on this please?

No.

Well, it is all about what suits your personality. While this one would have worked out better trading, there will be plenty others that you wished you would have been investing. Making the decision to switch should be entirely based on your personality, not looking at one particular stock and draw the conclusion in hindsight. The same applies to FA vs TA. It about making money, that's it. The preferred have long been anointed the security most certain to have a favorable outcome when its all said and done. But the commons have been a much better vehicle to date. I think that changes once we start seeing some material developments, as the commons are more of a retail investment, but nevertheless how many 1-5-2-4-2-4-1-3 moves have we seen? So if its all said and done and this is a bust, who's worse off? The guy who sits on commons at $0 but made $5 per share trading? Or the guy who bought and held and now has nothing to show and 5-10 years of wasted time? If reform gets done pretty much everyone wins anyway. Thats why trading around a core is also a way to mitigate loss and permanent impairment. That’s all hindsight. You wouldn’t have known ahead of time. Of course it is about money. Who here doesn’t have the goal to make money? But you can only make money when you use a strategy that suits you. If you make this switch merely based on the common share movement in the past, you may be more disappointed in the future

Well, it is all about what suits your personality. While this one would have worked out better trading, there will be plenty others that you wished you would have been investing. Making the decision to switch should be entirely based on your personality, not looking at one particular stock and draw the conclusion in hindsight. The same applies to FA vs TA.

"Successful traders generate income. Successful investors generate wealth." -me Is George Soros a successful trader or investor? How about David Tepper?

This is why a great trader said, the best analysts are sometimes the worst traders.

Well, maybe. But the stock going down is quite expected. I said yesterday "Today's GSE treasury plan is like when the market is expecting a high growth stock with no earnings to report a 200% revenue growth but it only reported a 190% growth." Whenever that happens, the stock goes down on a disappointing quarter. No difference here. There is effectively no change for shareholders at the moment. Bit of a let down to be honest. That's right, but that's not what moves the stock prices. It is never true to see stocks going flat all the way until some material news come out and if it is good, it goes up, if it is bad, it goes down, if it is neutral, stock goes flat. It never works like this. What happens is that people have expectations for what SHOULD happen, and starts bidding up the stock ahead of time, hoping to make a gain when good news come out, and when what ACTUALLY happened is less than what SHOULD happen, the stock goes down, even if what ACTUALLY happened is positive. This is exactly how boom bust cycles work. I think George Soros' books explained this very well.

Well, maybe. But the stock going down is quite expected. I said yesterday "Today's GSE treasury plan is like when the market is expecting a high growth stock with no earnings to report a 200% revenue growth but it only reported a 190% growth." Whenever that happens, the stock goes down on a disappointing quarter. No difference here.

Today's GSE treasury plan is like when the market is expecting a high growth stock with no earnings to report a 200% revenue growth but it only reported a 190% growth.

you don't have to be in the same boat as Bradford. you can be in the same boat as Paulson. I don’t want to be in the same boat as Paulson either. His ten year track record is horrendous, so are Fairholme, Pershing. David Tepper is really the only GSE holder that has a strong record but he is actively trading in and out of all of his positions instead of investing, so who knows if he still has it.

My TA readings are neutral to marginally positive. I wouldn’t initiate a position here until it is more positive. My FA agrees with you guys here that this should be very bullish. However, when I look at Glen Broadford’s twits, I cant help but ask myself, do I really want to be in the same camp with this guy? This clown lost a big amount in 2011 buying Chinese frauds. Last year he was touting FTR and touting that no one knows about valuation of stocks better than him, and that he is eager to move forward from the GSEs once it is all settled, so he can start doing what his is best at. What a joke. FTR was $2 last year, and now 8 cents. Interesting that we’ll soon see what’s going on in less than one hour, if ACG analytics isn’t a fraud.

Interesting! I'll check it out. Well.... I took a quick glance and the yields are worse than some of the best online banks. https://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/investing/accounts_products/investment/bonds/certificates_of_deposit Maturity Ranges ( 9/3/2019 ) Rates up to 1-3 Month CDs 1.964 %APY 4-6 Month CDs 1.909 %APY 7-9 Month CDs 1.804 %APY 10-18 Month CDs 1.9 %APY 1.5-2.5 year CDs 1.9 %APY

No. I do not short stocks, and even if I do, the possible ruling from Collins may create a gap up that causes risks to be unable to control.

I think the next leg down will come soon. Whenever everyone expects the stock to go one way, it usually goes the other. This time I can see everyone talking about the treasury plan after Labor Day and it should help the stock reach par, so I think there is a fairly good chance to go the other way.

i want to have the least number of accounts as possible. But I guess if I have to do that, it probably makes sense to do what you said. I currently use Ally bank’s checking and saving accounts, which have been pretty good until recently when they lowered their savings APY.