muscleman

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3573614-stan-druckenmiller-not-buying-this-rally I am puzzled by the article here that summarizes Stans Druckenmiller's view. "The risk-reward for equity is maybe as bad as I've seen it in my career," says Stanley Druckenmiller, speaking at an event for The Economic Club of New York. The V-shaped recovery, he says, is "a fantasy." Always hedging, he adds this line: "The wild card here is the Fed can always step up [asset] purchases." Scratching his head about the excitement surrounding Gilead's remdesivir, Druckenmiller says he can't see why anyone would change their behavior over the viral drug. Differing with some other hedge fund heavy hitters, Druckenmiller says the government's massive stimulus push is more likely to be deflationary than inflationary. On Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), he sounds like a fan: "We should just get down on our knees and thank the Lord that this company existed in this pandemic."

Back in 1970s when Russia was about to nuke the entire China, US came out and stopped it. If this time US wanted to nuke the entire China, I think Russia will come out to stop it. muscle, do you think the US should let China continue its ways or do something about it? I'm not saying war by the way. I think there will be more conflicts between them especially as we approach election date. There will be more volatility in the market but the market will slowly creep up.

Back in 1970s when Russia was about to nuke the entire China, US came out and stopped it. If this time US wanted to nuke the entire China, I think Russia will come out to stop it.

Because a lot of Chinese corrupt officials have their kids and assets parked in the US. If the war starts, their assets will be counterfeited by the US government. They will do everything they can to stabilize events.

Thank you! This is awesome!

COVID is being discussed here extensively but not war. I have a feeling that the possibility of a war in Taiwan has increased from 0% to at least 1%. I haven't seen any news reports in English so I'll post the Chinese version here. This guy has been reporting the first hand information on COVID since last December, so I would think his reporting on the war exercise is also good. Basically, there was a massive military exercise starting from yesterday until July for various items like invasion of an island, attacking a carrier and defending Beijing. I think it is pretty crazy.

I am interested in finding Julian Baker's positions because this fund is really good at biotech investing. I am curious how they allocate each position % wise.

My mother in law's community in Wuhan got completely locked down by the government due to virus concerns. I think this is the 2nd wave coming.

I am puzzled by this. I would think they get hit hard but they seem to be affirming full year earning guidance and the stock prices fully recovered to all time highs earlier this year. Could anyone shed some lights on it?

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/05/37be03e4d191-over-117-mil-people-may-make-trips-in-china-during-may-day-holiday.html More than 117 million people are likely to make trips in China during the five-day May Day holiday that started Friday Nothing to see here guys. All new infections in China are now reported like "xxxx city got 30 new cases and that's because a foreign guy came over irresponsibly". I think a 2nd wave is coming. My friend recently went to a good restaurant in Wuhan. Still no one there. Her family was the only one. Where is the pent up demand after this is all over? We have this on top of the most historical asset bubble. Just keep that in mind.

After seeing what's happening in China, I am more bearish now. Here is what I think 1. The virus is not going away. Repeated outbreaks happen over and over in various cities in China right now, though the Chinese CDC kept reporting 0-2 cases each day. Harbin is on 2nd lockdown and Xi'an just had a big outbreak. 2. The Gilead drug helps a little but not a game changer. 3. With social distancing enforced, restaurants and all other serivces would at most run at 50% capacity. If you run a restaurant and have 100 seats, with 6ft distancing, you can only do 30-50 customers at once, depending on your seating locations. This will continue to create a drag. 4. Vaccine is not as easy as people thought. Some vaccines can even cause certain subtypes of the virus to infect even faster because the antibody for the other subtypes act as the key to the door. Of course, the Chinese government wants you to think otherwise. It is now blaming all additional outbreaks on irresponsible foreigners spreading virus in China. I see that in all kinds of social media in China. On top of that, we have Buffet and Munger not buying anything after the big market drop. Has this ever happened before? At the same time, we also have all kinds of 0 experience "investors" taking out their credit card, taking mortgage forebearance etc. to trade in the market. I've personally been contacted by a few college classmates who have never traded stocks now wanting to catch this opportunity of a decade to make money. I have to wonder if Buffet and Munger are smarter or these 0 experience day traders.

You're the one that brought up a single data point, not me. You're also the one that calls your system TA, which generally implies a high (if not 100%) level of mechanism. I don't understand why your system works or why it should work. If you have had sustainable success with your system, good for you. But a value investing forum is not the place to be gloating about a result of a system that is, from a value investor's perspective, indistinguishable from guesswork. Oh really? When did I say "this is a single data point"? I thought you are smarter than putting words into my mouth to make your arguments look strong. I came to this thread with the genuine intention to help, but look at the hostility you gave back in return. I am putting you on my ignore list, so no need to respond to this post anymore.

Gloating over what amounts to a lucky guess is poor form. From what I remember, some of us didn't disagree with your conclusions but instead the methods used to come to them. There is nothing to suggest that your investing method produces reliable results. Perhaps you really do have a real alpha-generating system that the rest of us just don't understand. But one data point doesn't prove anything. I have been bullish all the time last year until the end of September, and you call it "one data point"? If that's your understanding of statistics, then I have nothing further to say. I don't believe a pure mechanical system such as one magical moving average crossing another can provide alpha. My analysis is based on the assumption that Mr. Market may have deeper knowledge than us and watching how Mr. Market reacts to major news may tip off what he thinks. Too early to tell.

Gloating over what amounts to a lucky guess is poor form. From what I remember, some of us didn't disagree with your conclusions but instead the methods used to come to them. There is nothing to suggest that your investing method produces reliable results. Perhaps you really do have a real alpha-generating system that the rest of us just don't understand. But one data point doesn't prove anything. I have been bullish all the time last year until the end of September, and you call it "one data point"? If that's your understanding of statistics, then I have nothing further to say. I don't believe a pure mechanical system such as one magical moving average crossing another can provide alpha. My analysis is based on the assumption that Mr. Market may have deeper knowledge than us and watching how Mr. Market reacts to major news may tip off what he thinks.

This was my post some time last year. I know a lot of you disagreed with me strongly at that time. Looking at it now, it was the correct reading.

Yes, if there is a path of less resistance and easy way to solve this, why isn't it happening yet. Why wait when the result could be catastrophic? It seems that we're missing something. I agree. The joke appears on us. Mnuchin could have easily highlighted the FnF $100bn+ net govt payday when being plastered on his $500bn fund but he stayed silent. Add this to the list of the Trump team punting for 3.5 years, Ginsburg 2017, Atlas recent silence, SC refusing to take the case this term, Lamberth and Sweeney 2023+ after appeals, Calabria muzzled over NWS illegality post FHFA installation, etc -- and voila jr pref @ 17pct of par and common price below 2016 election date. What makes you think something is going to happen in May?

I’ve been 90% cash since mid Feb but still pissed to have a 4% draw down on my portfolio as I lost a ton on my remaining stocks

Yes. She only works for that one hospital. Do you expect her to have a second job in another hospital? :) My relative who was cured in the end of Feb and had all symptoms back after 3 weeks at home and then got hospitalized again in a different hospital told us that she also saw a lot of new cases each day in that hospital. But never mind. The official number is 0, and production has resumed in the factories. So from the stock investor perspective outside of China, who cares what's really going on yeah? I think the bottom for the market may be in.

In case you guys want some real stories. This is what it looks like in Wuhan today. So after reporting fake 0 cases for a couple of days, people start to resume their life now. My friend in the most famous Wuhan hospital said they still have 100 new cases per day, but the mayor told them anyone reporting that number will be fired. Everyone's being extremely careful and wearing masks all the time. I don't think that can completely prevent the 2nd wave of outbreak but that could certainly help though. So maybe what happens next is that people still get the virus but the number is not as big as the first wave's peak.

I donated two boxes of masks and eye gears to our hospital which has been running very low on these

There are three providers, not two and there are plenty of technical reasons for such a drop, such as indeed a switch of provider due to 5G or new regulations or store closing/not selling services, or businesses not renewing/buying numbers for spam purposes etc. all three lost 18M combined. I do agree that they could be closing the account for some economic reasons though.

This is a really interesting data point. I am not saying all of these users are dead. There are just two mobile providers in China. I don't think all of a sudden these 8M users decided to switch to the other one right in Jan and Feb.

It’ll be fun to find all the prior ACG bullish call dates and map them on the chart. I only remember last March or so they had a wildly bullish call right at the top. The price retraced quite a bit. But I lost track since last May. Muscle Man (MM) = Mr. Market (MM) LOL that’s funny. But isn’t there a saying that Mr Market is correct most of the time? Value discrepancies only happen occasionally.

It’ll be fun to find all the prior ACG bullish call dates and map them on the chart. I only remember last March or so they had a wildly bullish call right at the top. The price retraced quite a bit. But I lost track since last May.

Or, more likely imo, another hedge fund is selling out. I believe this happened on Wednesday also, if this post is correct. https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=154435948 That's also quite possible. This recent market sharp drop is forced liquidation on everything. Even Bitcoin, Gold and Silver got sold off.