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FiveSigma

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  1. You don't need to shut down a legacy product and deprive users of its benefits to build a new product from scratch. It's not that there is no additional 'land' (servers) to build the second system on. I'd believe that whatever they replaced old Google Finance with had atrocious usage decline and they decided to do a v3.
  2. See the following paper by BLS: https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2006/05/art2full.pdf "While hedonics is an important technique for particular categories, it is important to emphasize that it is used for only a small part of the total index. Moreover, research from the CPI-U Research Series (CPI-U-RS) shows that its impact on indexes often has been modest and of uncertain direction. The CPI-U-RS was created to provide a methodologically consistent index; to this end estimates were made of the quantitative index of methodological changes in the CPI since 1978.34 These included changes to quality adjustment procedures. The estimates in the research series are taken from simulations described in the research for each item category for which hedonics was implemented." "In table 5, a negative sign indicates that the change to hedonic adjustment has caused the index to rise more slowly (or decline more rapidly) than it would have if previous quality adjustment procedures had been used. The inconsistency of the effect is exemplified by the fact that the impacts for washers and dryers have the opposite sign. While the switch to hedonic adjustment had a significant effect on several of the individual item categories, it is important to note that the net effect on the All Items index was negligible. This is because the direction of these effects varied and the items in question had such a small weight. (The total relative importance of items for which hedonics have been implemented since 1998 is less than 1 percent.) Indeed, the net effect of hedonics from 1999 onward (which excludes personal computers, but includes televisions and all later categories) on the All Items index is estimated to be less than 1-hundredth of 1 percent per year, specifically +0.005 percent."
  3. Uccmal, how did you get TD to give you a HELOC up to 80% of total LTV with your first mortgage NOT being with TD (i.e., with First National)? In my very recent experience, every big-5 Canadian bank refuses to go second on a property with first mortgage that is not with them, including TD (had a phone conversation with them). The only firm that agreed to do it was Home Capital group, but they cap total LTV (first+HELOC) at 65% of appraised property value.
  4. That's panic. Central Bank of Russia lost control of the currency market. Expect a wave of defaults within 3 months.
  5. Viking, what makes you believe "things stabilized" in Ukraine? Just yesterday 7 Ukrainian soldiers died and nine were wounded from a direct Rebel tank strike into an APC. There are reports of dozens of Rebel/Russian army artillery and Grad strikes of Donetsk airport, Debal'tsevo, areas close to Mariupol' happening every day. Russia is continuing to bleed reserves and rouble is continuing to lose ground daily. Some stabilization!
  6. Have you seen this: Per CableLabs it may be possible to reach 1 Gbps downstream speed on the coaxial last mile. I think their work is why Malone believes that cable can achieve speeds competitive with fiber at low marginal costs to the plant. If my memory of Cable Cowboy book serves me correctly CableLabs was one of the initiatives Malone had his hand in back in the TCI days.
  7. I think this poll would have been much more interesting if had a finer granularity such as: - Self-Directed Investor (only) - Analyst at a fund - PM at a fund - Owner of a fund mgmt company or family office
  8. US industrial production is increasing US retail sales are increasing US non-farm jobs being added US housing affordability at multi-decade high US consumer debt service at multi-decade low US price-to-rent at multi-decade low US bank capital levels at multi-decade high US banks wrote-off ~500B of losses with write-offs declining US new home sales / construction growing from a level lower than when US had half the population it has now
  9. Mostly 1 hour of breakfast TV during workday mornings (for a total of 5 hours a week). Now annual reports reading on the other hand... ;D
  10. Pzena was loading up on Fannie Mae common back in 2007-2008. Fannie Mae had ~57 basis points of capital against their insured mortgage book, going into what was clearly (by 2007-2008) a very serious housing/credit contraction. I remember shorting FNM common and related garbage, reading in disbelief about Pzena loading up. I lost all respect for him after that.
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